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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Those are great pictures DLL! I especially like the first one with the limestone rock outcrop.

Map summing up the WI part of this rain event.

oct13-14rain.png

Thanks to some micro cells towards the end of the day - ended off with 1.31".

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Sweet pics DLL.

Rain today ended up totaling 1.07" That combined with yesterday's 0.55" brings the storm total up to 1.62". Not too bad, although significantly less than many of the models had consistently forecast for this area. Still a loooooong way to go to really make a dent in this significant drought, but it's a start.

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Noticed something interesting in the zone forecasts. This is for the county northwest of here. Hail in the forecast 4 days out.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

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Gino Izzi always makes it exciting

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS ALL HAVE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BARRELING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND SPINNING UP ONE HECK OF A CYCLONE. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WITH H5 HEIGHTS 3 TO NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY EQUATE TO 500MB HEIGHTS ABOUT AS LOW AS THEY EVER GET IN THIS AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE SOME MODEST TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TOMORROW AND GETS BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...BUT GENERAL IDEA LOOKS TO BE ONE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE CUT OFF LOW SHOULD TAKE OF RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR A COUPLE DAYS BRINGING BOUTS OF COLD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS PAN OUT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...THEN 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30C THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS...GRAUPEL...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME COLD AIR FUNNELS AS REMARKABLY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.

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Gino Izzi always makes it exciting

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS ALL HAVE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BARRELING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND SPINNING UP ONE HECK OF A CYCLONE. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WITH H5 HEIGHTS 3 TO NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE...WHICH WOULD BASICALLY EQUATE TO 500MB HEIGHTS ABOUT AS LOW AS THEY EVER GET IN THIS AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE SOME MODEST TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TOMORROW AND GETS BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...BUT GENERAL IDEA LOOKS TO BE ONE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE CUT OFF LOW SHOULD TAKE OF RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR A COUPLE DAYS BRINGING BOUTS OF COLD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS PAN OUT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...THEN 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30C THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS...GRAUPEL...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME COLD AIR FUNNELS AS REMARKABLY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.

Cold air funnels and graupel together. Never heard those two words in the same sentence! Would be even more interesting to see snowflakes and funnels!

Clouds are finally clearing out. Chilly though in the low 50s.

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Completely opposite kind of day today compared to yesterday. Very nice. Lots of sun and temps in the low 60s. Barely any wind as well.

It can get as windy as it wants to now as far as I'm concerned. Had the tree guys out today to take care of the huge section of the front tree that had cracked and was hanging over the house. Big load off my mind I tell ya.

20121015150538.jpg

20121015150554.jpg

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Took a loooong bike ride tonite...it was 60F and perfect today, but now my legs are like jello...

This is looking east on the marsh trail...those bluffs are my destination

bikeride_zpsf86a706f.jpg

Getting a little closer... chilly in the shade, but i'm starting to work up a sweat...

bikeride1_zps302a20fe.jpg

Stopped to take a breather on the bike/hiking trail that leads to the top of the bluff...the steep stuff is behind me at this point

bikeride2_zps1d564fa6.jpg

Up on the top now (some nice homes up here with a nice view)

bikeride3_zps99e56993.jpg

Road goes right by NWS in La Crosse (I'm biking no handed, snapping pics)

bikeride4_zpse718dd00.jpg

Mooooo... we are in Wisconsin

bikeride5_zps41cbf6d9.jpg

On Bliss Rd now heading west(Grandads bluff is off to the left)...this road goes straight down from here (lots of turns)...Almost topped 50mph on the last stretch

bikeride6_zpsae63ea4e.jpg

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DLL - You have some very nice vistas in that area of the state! I love the Driftless Area of Wisconsin. :)

I bet you got quite a workout biking up those bluffs!

Temperatures slides more then forecast tonight. Currently 38° with a little bit of ground fog developing.

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