dmc76 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 32 currently at my place. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Through 24 hours, the NAM looks more northwest with the likely deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Through 24 hours, the NAM looks more northwest with the likely deformation zone. Definitely is. And with more widespread 2.5"> totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 If the second half October ensembles, op GFS, CFS turn out as modeled, we got a real la Nina look on our hands in the 11+day. Drought cancel, Daddylonglegs? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 0z NAM dumps like 3" of rain here over the entire weekend ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 If the second half October ensembles, op GFS, CFS turn out as modeled, we got a real la Nina look on our hands in the 11+day. Drought cancel, Daddylonglegs? http://www.cpc.ncep....814prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep....814temp.new.gif I don't know about a widespread drought cancel, but certainly things might be boding well for us to avoid a bone dry winter. October rains don't portend precip patterns in the winter, but they certainly shouldn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Looks like quite a bit of rain to fall here with this system. This area's about 11" down for the year, so even if we get 2-3" of rain it will only make a small dent in the deficit. Still will be nice to get a good soaking rain though. Even though the rain will be nice, I was hoping it would hold off until late in the day as I have an appointment for the front tree (American Elm) to be heavily trimmed. It was severely damaged in a storm back in early August and needs to be dealt with. I didn't realize how bad it was until the other day when I noticed the huge crack in the trunk. Too bad as it has been a great/strong tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 0z GFS north with the deformation band. DLL cashes in with rainfall amounts. @Cyclone - looks like there might be something going on inside the tree - like some rot. I had a tree split in a similar fashion and it was due to some degradation inside the tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Impressive for a 3hr period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 00z GFS really beefed up this system (992mb over NW Lower Michigan) It's definitely one of the most amped up runs I've seen while tracking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 First band of precip associated with the storm moving through, been raining for a couple hours now. Vigorous eastward flow across the Rockies resulting in significant lee cyclogenesis, pressure drops of about 15 mb in the past 18 hours across the high plains. This is going to be the strongest mid-latitude cyclone in awhile for Wisconsin, but that isn't saying much considering the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 29 degrees this morning. I thought we'd flirt with 32, but this is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 could be nov for the first freeze in mke. nothing too out of the ordinary for this non radiating **** box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 could be nov for the first freeze in mke. nothing too out of the ordinary for this non radiating **** box. At least enjoy our best steady rains since Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Radar estimates show we are closing in on an inch. Still an hour or so of steady moderate low end heavy rain to go, then a few hours of a break, but this looks like a real soaker of a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 could be nov for the first freeze in mke. nothing too out of the ordinary for this non radiating **** box. Alek will get his first freeze before MKE. Of course we're targeting December for that to happen, so there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Not sure i've dropped under 40 yet...but the lake is dropping fast...should have my first freeze within a couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Rain just let up here... I'm not too excited for a huge amts here... That blob of heavy rain across iowa looks to stay south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 We have snowflakes mixed in with the rain showers in north east Oakland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 We have snowflakes mixed in with the rain showers in north east Oakland County. I'm in Oxford ATM and I thought I saw a few flakes. Guess my eyes were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 I'm in Oxford ATM and I thought I saw a few flakes. Guess my eyes were correct. Yes it was pretty cool and it's not a Surprise considering the moisture raced in quickly as the cold air was locked in place. I thought it was possible to see more snow mixed in. I'm glad someone else can confirm with me. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 We have snowflakes mixed in with the rain showers in north east Oakland County. I thought so too, it was hard to tell at first... Very waterlogged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 radar looks nice north and south. i need to move out of this weather **** hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Starting to rain here again. Rain started up around 2:30am this morning with it being in the 40s. Now it's up to 52°. ...Lots of leaves falling with the rain coming down. 0.23" of rain through 11:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Miserable rain in Champiagn. Band contest on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Really nice satellite image posted by Skilling about 11:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Update on tomorrow's wind potential. It still looks windy. 12z NAM/GFS both have a period where non-convective gusts in excess of 55 mph would be possible in the area. Smart play for now would be to keep things a bit conservative but potential is there especially if we get any breaks. 12z NAM has an interesting little wind max near/just south of the surface low. I'm not sure if it's legit or not but something to watch on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Got 0.90" of rain from the first batch, so 2+ inches total should be pretty easy. QC NWS is going with the heaviest rain axis tonight/tomorrow from se IA to nw IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 IND has issued a wind advisory for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 0.55" so far here. Was real dark and rainy all morning. Looks like the rain's pretty much over for awhile, until the remnant convection reaches us later tonight. As Hoosier pointed out the NAM and the 4km NAM both show a small high wind maximum right behind the strengthening surface low tomorrow. Should be interesting to see how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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