A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I'm starting to feel pretty good locally about 1"+ rain totals...early hi res guidance looks very active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 it's a pretty minor shift and it was 48 hours out at the time...not sure what's so shocking A 150 mile shift a day or two out is minor? Many models had the deformation zone going from Madison to Sheboygan, now it's the Chicago area or even south. HPC had the heaviest swath of rain north, now no one will get the 3-4" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think the latest shift in the NAM is a bit extreme to the SE. GFS still has the corridor of heaviest rain about the same as last nights run of itself and the NAM. RGEM/GGEM looks really good! I'd be happy with ~1.5" of rain. Lake effect clouds moving in right now, along with a few showers as well. Had a low of 32° this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 A 150 mile shift a day or two out is minor? Many models had the deformation zone going from Madison to Sheboygan, now it's the Chicago area or even south. HPC had the heaviest swath of rain north, now no one will get the 3-4" totals. Pretty much a lock someone in MKE or LOT cwa sees 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 You guys up north might want to wait before bailing. The NAM is sorta an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Pretty much a lock someone in MKE or LOT cwa sees 3"+ Maybe, but it looks like more of an equal opportunity soaking now. It looks like the initial surge of warm frontal precip will be a tad north of where most of the low/deformation band rain tracks. There might be some overlap, likely near the WI/IL border, and those areas might see localized 3"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Skilling showing the averaged together rainfall amounts focusing on Chicago to Saginaw Bay. 3.15" for MDW. About 1.55" for Waukegan and 2.5" for ORD. Edit: All of the southeastern most counties in WI had over an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 GFS still shows almost an inch here... anything is better then nothing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 The NAM is a piece of garbage beyond 12 hours out. Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Read HPC's disco this morning and found these couple nuggets: AN UPPER LOW COULD CLOSE OFF BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO ON THURSDAY OR NEXT FRIDAY (WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF COLD AIR POURING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST NEXT FRIDAY), , AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Not really. NAM= Not A Model, never look at it beyond 18 and you'll never be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z Euro shifted a little south but still has the heaviest amounts in central/southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Not really. Here is the official guide for the NAM. 84 hours = pretty useless 72 hours = still pretty useless 60 hours = getting warmer 48 hours = taking it more seriously 36 hours = can be pretty good, but can still flop 24 hours or less = me likey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 South does seem to be the trend. Heck, MPX's morning disco convinced me to go duck hunting tomorrow morning. They are pretty sour on much accumulation or thunder noth of a Redwood Falls to MPX line. Now a big congrats to the southern wisco guys. Should get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Here is the official guide for the NAM. 84 hours = pretty useless 72 hours = still pretty useless 60 hours = getting warmer 48 hours = taking it more seriously 36 hours = can be pretty good, but can still flop 24 hours or less = me likey Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Perfect. Not equivalent to what you were saying in the slightest, but Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Not equivalent to what you were saying in the slightest, but Ok. Yes thanks for reminding me of my usual bias of overhyping things. I THINK i am a strong candidate for weenie of the year. Sorry, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice blizzard for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin on the 12z Euro at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice blizzard for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin on the 12z Euro at 168 hours. I hate you guys who can see it before 2pm central, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice blizzard for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin on the 12z Euro at 168 hours. It would be if there was any precip. Edit: maybe you meant Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Towards anyone you can see... What are some of the total EURO precipitation amounts for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 It would be if there was any precip. Edit: maybe you meant Minnesota Sorry for posting in this thread, but you don't think there will be any precip with a 996mb low. The low was 987mb on the MN/WI border. The cold air at that time was in ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Towards anyone you can see... What are some of the total EURO precipitation amounts for the weekend? Hard to say for sure but based on the WU model map it looks like a wide spread 1.5-2" with a pocket or two going up to 3-4", maybe more in very localized spots. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Hard to say for sure but based on the WU model map it looks like a wide spread 1.5-2" with a pocket or two going up to 3-4", maybe more in very localized spots. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Yeah I've seen those maps. You can get a rough estimate of rainfall from this source. When the snowfall starts showing up I'll add up the numbers and figure out a possible range of snow accumulation. ... Meanwhile. Looks like Tropical got his frost this morning! Low of 29°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Sorry for posting in this thread, but you don't think there will be any precip with a 996mb low. The low was 987mb on the MN/WI border. The cold air at that time was in ND. The system occludes and pretty well falls apart. There's pretty much no precip in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Growing season should end here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 The high in my greenhouse today was 87F. If only Earth's atmosphere could trap solar energy like that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 18z NAM was back north with the heaviest rains! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Nice blizzard for Northern Illinois and Wisconsin on the 12z Euro at 168 hours. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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