trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 IMHO , I really don't think that this going to be a very big warm up for a lot of us in this sub-forum for next week. For days now the NAEFS has been showing a lot of blue over the central and eastern U.S. and now the other models have caught on. The ECWMF ensembles have trended towards the more amplified Western Ridge/Central Eastern Trough towards next weekend similar to what the GEFS has been implying. I'm not saying that 90's are impossible to happen next week, it just looks like the warmest it could get is about 80-85F for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 It's pretty clear to me it could still go either way. MKX has mid 70s for Milwaukee on Wednesday. I can deal with that, once we're talking 80s again, if we do, then it will start becoming frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 70 and 80s are certainly on the table, and maybe a 90 or two, I'm talking about what happens after Wednesday... the 4th thru 12th time period where it's starting to look an awful lot like we're going to see a cold/cool shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Read the last several pages of the thread, especially the last page, ignoring the usual New England banter. October, real October is coming after mid next week. I try my best to avoid the weenie fueled conversations in the NE EC threads. There is no doubt Fall weather is coming but bouts of Indian Summer are inevitable given the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I try my best to avoid the weenie fueled conversations in the NE EC threads. Oh, I thought that's what this board was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Sparty, dear Sparty, we've had some nice banter and good conversations, but sometimes you're a lunkhead. I am talking about what happens after next Wednesday. 00z GFS has the same pattern change at the same time. Big shot of October air coming down into the Northern Plains/Midwest/Lakes after next Wednesday. I think it has figured out the pattern change. The guys on the New England forum were arguing that the Euro didn't have it figured out. I wasn't questioning LOT's integrity and Gino Izzi is the craziest, funnest met out there. Looks like a complete pattern change to split flow with a healthy southern stream. A charged southern stream is better for us for the fall into winter. I'm thinking mid to upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday, then the cool off. The NAEFS outlook has held steady the last 10 runs or so on this troughy eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 There it is, see it up there in Canada? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=156¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 And here it is, and it's in a "believeable" timeframe as well. It's coming folks. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=180¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The entire GFS after 150 hours is a Midwest/Lakes weenies WET DREAM. The entire thing. Look at that southern stream. If we get that pattern in winter, midwest/ohio gets destroyed, east coast gets double phaser coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The entire GFS after 150 hours is a Midwest/Lakes weenies WET DREAM. The entire thing. Look at that southern stream. If we get that pattern in winter, midwest/ohio gets destroyed, east coast gets double phaser coastals. And it will probably change 20 times over the next 20 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The entire GFS after 150 hours is a Midwest/Lakes weenies WET DREAM. The entire thing. Look at that southern stream. If we get that pattern in winter, midwest/ohio gets destroyed, east coast gets double phaser coastals. Yeah that is a sweet run! lol --- WGN going with 80° by Wednesday next week, then shows the cold air hitting Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 And it will probably change 20 times over the next 20 runs. Oh look. the Euro is on board out to 240 hours too now... remember 2 weeks ago when we were talking about model consistency about the next cold shot? And yes, I am smart enough to not take anything past 200 without a grain of salt. But look at the change on the Euro. No more huge ridge into the northwest territories making a big west coast trough and torching the midsection. And it's the exact same damn pattern with nice split flow setting up. I'll take this for the next 5 months, thanks. For once the king gets pwned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Oh look. the Euro is on board out to 240 hours too now... remember 2 weeks ago when we were talking about model consistency about the next cold shot? And yes, I am smart enough to not take anything past 200 without a grain of salt. But look at the change on the Euro. And it's the exact same damn pattern with nice split flow setting up. I'll take this for the next 5 months, thanks. For once the king gets pwned. No, it isn't, and I'm not trying to "pwn" anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Something can't be pwned until the other thing verifies. Plenty of time to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Again, it's weenieish to post this, but I will, and tell me how much different the pattern really is in both models at the same times. It's a pretty clear bet by the end of next week we cool down. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012092712!!/ This is actually in a somewhat believeable time frame. And a pattern which the GFS has been showing for the last 4 runs now. Now the real weenie part: http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012092712!!/ http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Tell a layman exactly how much different they are. And I wasn't trying to insult any mets or real knowledgeable weather person either. They just look in pretty good agreement to me. That's all I personally need to know that some cold is coming. We can argue for days how long it will last. For the Euro op to change from it's ridiculously amplified Epac ridge to more of what the GFS has been showing for the last 4 runs to me, as a layman, and having something of a brain in my head... maybe... is good enough signal for me. I know some of you guys hate it when I talk long range, but it's fun to speculate, so c'mon. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Let's just watch this map get more blue every day. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well, it looks like a one day torch, next Wednesday. Otherwise two or three additional days of just a quick Indian summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I saw a few AFD's west of central north/south Dakota line mention the "s" word in their afds this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I saw a few AFD's west of central north/south Dakota line mention the "s" word in their afds this afternoon. I've seen snow here early as October 7th (2000)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Can't get any drier... this is insane. Might as well plant some cactus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I've seen snow here early as October 7th (2000)! Was it a trace or measurable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Oct 12th 2006 was SE Michigan's earliest snow. We had accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 The inability of the models to develope their surface ridge properly is the problem. They underdo it. You see this type of setup all the time in the winter as well. -PNA/+EPO. People expecting to get snow, get ice(or rain). In the fall, the dividing line between a muggy 75-80 and 50 is not much. The problem is, that should be farther up near the Canadian border. This is not a "cold pattern" anyway you look at it for October. There is a pretty decent shot of "cold" however you want to define it, coming into the northern tier. That is all. I was never nor am I expecting snow. maybe upslope in Montana or something or northern ND and Minnesota. After the summer we all just endured, "cold" is a relative term. By the way, my point and click says a high if 57 next Thursday, which is BELOW normal. There are some below normal temps coming the the northern US. Enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Was it a trace or measurable? Trace. Had snow showers that morning. Earliest measurable snow that I can remember was probably way back during that October 1989 storm. I had snow also on October 12, 2006 - only a trace though. NAO and AO might influence this change next week. NAO looks to be negative at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Trace. Had snow showers that morning. Earliest measurable snow that I can remember was probably way back during that October 1989 storm. I had snow also on October 12, 2006 - only a trace though. NAO and AO might influence this change next week. NAO looks to be negative at least. That ties into what I was wondering. I don't think it's as cut and dry as Angrysummons is making it out to be. Even if the PNA is negative and there were some similar regimes last winter, you have to remember that most of last winter was dominated by a positive NAO. There are very few absolutes, even if you have a good idea of the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Oct 12th 2006 was SE Michigan's earliest snow. We had accumulation. That was the earliest MEASURABLE snow for Detroit. 10/12/006 was definitely special for me. There was thunder and lighting reported in the squalls along with white-out conditions. Metro Airport and City Airport both measured 50 MPH wind gusts (I believe the temp was in the low 40s before the main squall came through). This was the same event in which Buffalo had that record-breaking lake effect snow event (with the feet of snow and non-stop thunder). But alas, that's all history. I would just about kill for a weather pattern and weather event that's even somewhat as nice as that one was right now. All of that said, I wouldn't doubt that Detroit has seen snow in September at some point in its history (before weather records were kept). The earliest trace of snowfall on record was October 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 The entire GFS after 150 hours is a Midwest/Lakes weenies WET DREAM. The entire thing. Look at that southern stream. If we get that pattern in winter, midwest/ohio gets destroyed, east coast gets double phaser coastals. Too bad. I guess we'll have to take our cold stratiform rain and like it if it phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 That ties into what I was wondering. I don't think it's as cut and dry as Angrysummons is making it out to be. Even if the PNA is negative and there were some similar regimes last winter, you have to remember that most of last winter was dominated by a positive NAO. There are very few absolutes, even if you have a good idea of the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO, etc. Or better yet...the negative NAO we had almost all Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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