weatherbo Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 4" of snow reported today just across the bridge. Maybe an inch here late tonight. Lake clouds looking very ominous this afternoon as winds are increasing and getting colder out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Sunday still looking pretty windy. In fact the 18z NAM suggests a window where 50+ mph gusts would be possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Rainy evening thanks to a cold front that originally looked dry. I wonder if now the models are taking the drought into account too much because it seems rainy systems are no longer overdone and sometimes underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Raining here now. Temperatures fell 15° after 5pm. 66° for the high today - was pretty nice except the 35mph gusts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice day. Plenty of sun and made it to 69. Looks like some decent rain finally on the way for the weekend. Lack of instability and poor timing will keep severe threats west of the DVN cwa IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Managed 51F this afternoon... cold, blustery... brr... should be upper 20's tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Nice day. Plenty of sun and made it to 69. Looks like some decent rain finally on the way for the weekend. Lack of instability and poor timing will keep severe threats west of the DVN cwa IMO. I think that will be fine for most of us who actually do get a good soaking. I'll take the soaking over a line of decaying t'storms right now, of course both may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 OT: http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/weather-springs-into-snowy-winter-and-back-again-as-temperatures-fluctuate-wildly/story-e6frea83-1226493973410 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Severe weather or not, this area is in for a good soaking this weekend. Both the NAM and GFS shows 2-3+" of rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Severe weather or not, this area is in for a good soaking this weekend. Both the NAM and GFS shows 2-3+" of rain for us. the WI/IL border and just north looks locked and loaded for a soaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 25F... growing season officially over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I think it could rain 5 inches here and it still wouldn't be enough... The soil is just dust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I'll take what we can get and be happy. Farmers can't even plow fields after harvest the way things are now. An inch would let them at least disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z NAM changes the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z NAM changes the game So just before the storm arrives the NAM jumps 200 miles south and removes most of the rain from Iowa. Great . 2012 can't end soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Wow... Thats a pretty drastic shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 So just before the storm arrives the NAM jumps 200 miles south and removes most of the rain from Iowa. Great . 2012 can't end soon enough. Better not be a trend. This storm had been so consistent in the big picture in giving much of Wisconsin needed rain that it'd be a punch to the gut if there's a big shift now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Better not be a trend. This storm had been so consistent in the big picture in giving much of Wisconsin needed rain that it'd be a punch to the gut if there's a big shift now. No kidding. I really hope the 12z GFS doesn't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 No kidding. I really hope the 12z GFS doesn't follow suit. The last two runs of the GFS kept the heavy rain band from NE Iowa over to Madison and between Milwaukee/Green Bay. It will be interesting if it keeps this solution because it would be much different than this 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Henry M did say that upper low was more south than the models have shown so maybe that's why the NAM came in further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Henry M did say that upper low was more south than the models have shown so maybe that's why the NAM came in further south? The NAM was the furthest south model to begin with, and the last run made an even further SE shift. I think it's overdoing the SE shift, but the overall shift may well be SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 The NAM was the furthest south model to begin with, and the last run made an even further SE shift. I think it's overdoing the SE shift, but the overall shift may well be SE. Why can't this happen in the winter. It's always the dreaded NW shift in the models and we lose out on a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 The NAM is a piece of garbage beyond 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 last night's 06z run of the RGEM: The 0z run of the GGEM from last night. last night's Euro had a very similar look. Having shown these I would expect a southern shift of these models as well. The upper level low was fairly well sampled by the upper air network with this mornings launches. I think the solution may be in between what these are showing and what this mornings run of the Nam is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 9z SREF member still look good for S WI with the warm front but the frontal/low action is def looking better further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 9z SREF member still look good for S WI with the warm front but the frontal/low action is def looking better further south. Yeah, if this were winter we'd be saying still looks like a good front end thump, with the deformation zone coming in further south. I just don't understand how the majority of long range models could actually come in with the deformation zone precip just NW of the Milwaukee area, and then one run shifts the deformation zone into N Illinois. Horrible that the models all miss out on this but the NAM if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z GFS pretty much in agreement with the NAM that a good amount of energy will be hanging back well to the south. CR through Wisconsin would still get the initial decent WAA precip, but then no severe storms and no deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Yeah, if this were winter we'd be saying still looks like a good front end thump, with the deformation zone coming in further south. I just don't understand how the majority of long range models could actually come in with the deformation zone precip just NW of the Milwaukee area, and then one run shifts the deformation zone into N Illinois. Horrible that the models all miss out on this but the NAM if this comes to fruition. it's a pretty minor shift and it was 48 hours out at the time...not sure what's so shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 12z GFS pretty much in agreement with the NAM that a good amount of energy will be hanging back well to the south. CR through Wisconsin would still get the initial decent WAA precip, but then no severe storms and no deformation zone. That's probably the result of the all day rain the GFS is showing with the initial surge; even from 18-0z and 0z-6z it is showing pretty expansive coverage of probably moderate rain in S Wisconsin, limiting afternoon and evening convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 it's a pretty minor shift and it was 48 hours out at the time...not sure what's so shocking Wait until this winter when it means the difference between several inches of snow and a DAB. Weenie suicide watch at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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