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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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HPC discussion on that trough in the medium range:

DAYS 5-7 DETAILS ARE FAR FROM COMPLETE...BUT IN THIS PATTERN...THE

10/00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THEIR MEANS PROVIDE A GENERAL

GUIDELINE FOR THE FLOW PATTERN AND WAVE TRAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS

THE PACIFIC AND DOWNWIND INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN THAT...TYPHOON 22W

(PRAPIROON)...CURRENTLY INVOF 18.9N 129.8E...WILL EVENTUALLY

BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND INJECT SUBTROPICAL ENERGY AND

DYNAMICS INTO THE WAVE TRAIN CROSSING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS

IN TURN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ALONG

THE WEST COAST AND EAST PAC. FOR THE PRELIMINARY GRAPHICS...THE

00Z CANADIAN/GFS WERE THE BETTER PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO DRAW UP

SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS OF THE WAVE PROGRESSION DOWNWIND OF THE

ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST.

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Raw day here with hvy lake effect and wind. Rain/ snow mix never really changing over totally. Inland around Gaylord there has been some snow stick cars and higher hiltops. If this had all been snow, it'd have been a nice accumulation. Nice to see te flakes flying tho!!

Some nice banded snow for a few hours this evening around the Gaylord area. Took this shot from the NWS office this evening. Officially measured 0.5". Ground still quite white as of 1130pm.

post-1166-0-92679800-1349926353_thumb.jp

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I'm almost in denial at this point that we could get 1 to 2 inches of rain from a storm system. There have been so few of these in recent months that it is hard for me to accept. We'll probably dryslot like SE Michigan with most winter systems. :whistle:

Right now it looks really good for moderate to heavy rain. Especially with the low shifting south on the GFS. Will probably see more rain from the warm front.

Another night of frost here.

---

Nice picture Gaylordwx!

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Some nice banded snow for a few hours this evening around the Gaylord area. Took this shot from the NWS office this evening. Officially measured 0.5". Ground still quite white as of 1130pm.

Didn't get that white over here.Only mixed with snow during the heavier bands. Looking forward to maybe some white again tonight. Thanks for sharing!

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Low 33° early this morning, before WAA kicked in. Now it's crazy windy again. Gusts approaching 30mph for sure.

...Freeze advisories again for SE WI? - Is it really worth it still?

6z GFS showing a total washout on Sunday as well in the Devil's Lake area where I'm planning to go! :yikes:

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...Freeze advisories again for SE WI? - Is it really worth it still?

MKX mentioned this in their discussion the other day

"HAVE ENDED FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE SEASON ACROSS AREAS TO

THE NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.

HOWEVER MADISON HAS YET TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME

LAKESHORE AREAS. DESPITE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN BELOW

FREEZING FARTHER EAST...PER COORDINATION WITH LOT WILL CONTINUE

FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES A FEW MORE DAYS FROM FOND DU LAC AND

SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO BEAVER DAM...MADISON AND MONROE AND POINTS EAST

OF THIS LINE DUE TO LACK OF WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE."

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MKX mentioned this in their discussion the other day

"HAVE ENDED FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE SEASON ACROSS AREAS TO

THE NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE.

HOWEVER MADISON HAS YET TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME

LAKESHORE AREAS. DESPITE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN BELOW

FREEZING FARTHER EAST...PER COORDINATION WITH LOT WILL CONTINUE

FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES A FEW MORE DAYS FROM FOND DU LAC AND

SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO BEAVER DAM...MADISON AND MONROE AND POINTS EAST

OF THIS LINE DUE TO LACK OF WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE."

Ok, that's why. I thought Dane, Rock, Jefferson, Waukesha had a widespread freeze already.

It's strange, the growing season (trees have been "awake" longer) here was 29 days shorter this year compared to last year! 190 vs. 161.

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