toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I hate rain. I want to go to the pumpkin farm Saturday. Looks like a big fail. Thank you ma nature. All you like is warmth that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Enjoy: http://easweb.eas.ualberta.ca/camera/camera_high_03.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 All you like is warmth that's it. He should stick his head in an oven. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 That was where the best LLJ dynamics were being indicated in the map that you posted...how bloody dense are you? I don't read model maps verbatim 7 days out (nor does the SPC). I merely posted the map of the EURO to give a GENERAL idea of the setup. But for you to passively downplay the setup as if I didn't know what I was talking about was classless as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yikes-a-mama, here comes Octobomb, right on schedule, just a few hundred miles north of 2 years ago. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Not quite a 210 kt 250mb jet like the last time around but still... Sorry, I'm "overlooking" this weekends setup for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 PRetty heavy Sleet, Graupel here in Southfield, Mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sleet in Farmington Hills as I type. Earliest Winter precip I have ever seen by 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Holy smokes at the 12z GFS/GGEM around 180 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Raw day here with hvy lake effect and wind. Rain/ snow mix never really changing over totally. Inland around Gaylord there has been some snow stick cars and higher hiltops. If this had all been snow, it'd have been a nice accumulation. Nice to see te flakes flying tho!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 No graupel here in AA, just cold cold showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 GFS continues to pump out more moisture for this weekend...now nearing 1.5" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Holy smokes at the 12z GFS/GGEM around 180 hrs... And Euro still is yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 46.2F here right now in the middle of the day. It's not like it's been cloudy here, partly sunny and yet the temps have remained chilly to say the least. I did not expect a cool start to the fall, an average one at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Mother nature is pointing towards an early winter. Leaves are dropping early, birds are gone and a definte chill is in the air. As for winter speculations flip a coin, no one really has a definite conclusion this early. Perhaps this storm of the weekend will stir up the weather bringing more cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yikes-a-mama, here comes Octobomb, right on schedule, just a few hundred miles north of 2 years ago. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Not quite a 210 kt 250mb jet like the last time around but still... Sorry, I'm "overlooking" this weekends setup for the next one. I believe the models this far out for the octobomb played games on placement only too settle on a track over LK Sup. Was it a famous NW trender? It's been a couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sleet/Graupel here earlier also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I believe the models this far out for the octobomb played games on placement only too settle on a track over LK Sup. Was it a famous NW trender? It's been a couple years. Euro has a system but absolutely nothing like this. And it also has a neg pna at the end of it's run while the GFS is raging positive by 180 hours with a giant trough over the central US. Who wins this battle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Euro has a system but absolutely nothing like this. And it also has a neg pna at the end of it's run while the GFS is raging positive by 180 hours with a giant trough over the central US. Who wins this battle? Hopefully GFS...would be fun times around these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I've excepted the fact that the Octobomb was a once in a lifetime weather event. But u have to love seeing these deep fall systems. It's a good sign guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I've excepted the fact that the Octobomb was a once in a lifetime weather event. But u have to love seeing these deep fall systems. It's a good sign guys. No question, and now that a torch doesn't seem inevitable in the medium-long range, there is hope for even better signs down the pike. That's all I can go with now, hope but knowledge of the potential reality that a snowy winter may not be in the cards regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I believe the models this far out for the octobomb played games on placement only too settle on a track over LK Sup. Was it a famous NW trender? It's been a couple years. I'm sure someone here remembers. It seems like the models trended 100 miles or so NW early on, then locked in. I'm also thinking that there was good agreement. Or maybe I'm old and forgetful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 They were way north at 240, then at about 160-180 settled on a track and didn't deviate much. And I am NOT comparing this in any way to the octobomb. 80 knots at h5 and 140 at 250 are nowhere near the 200+ we had on the roof and the 110 we had in the midlevels with Octobomb, not to mention the 75+ knot LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The Octobomb was something else. How often do you see a tornado outbreak beginning around dawn in this part of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The Octobomb was something else. How often do you see a tornado outbreak beginning around dawn in this part of the country? Hell any part of the country, just imagine if it had waited about 6-8 hours what kind of outbreak that would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The Octobomb was something else. How often do you see a tornado outbreak beginning around dawn in this part of the country? It makes a 985 look "run of the mill" in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 So guys, I guess the real question is, is the GFS too amped up? Or does the Euro have too much of a -pna? It's going to make a big difference in about a week to 10 days. Seems like CPC has hedged their bets and gone for something in between... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 That 180 hours system would be awesome for this area. Make up some more headway in chipping this drought away. For today, 49° was as warm as it got. Leaves blowing around like crazy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The Euro makes no sense to me that with a 160 knot jet coming onshore it has a dinky little 1000+mb low... remember this spring when we had a 160 knot jet come on in and had something like 980 over eastern MN/western Wisco? I am not an expert. Something just doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 18z backed off on the jet streak and strength of the low... but has it further south. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 32 early this morning, which resulted in some ice on vehicles parked outside. Some of the water leftover from last night's rain froze up. System this weekend is interesting, but not impressed with severe threat for the DVN area. Looks like the storms will be crapping the bed by the time they reach this area. Should get some decent rains though from the WAA precip, and whatever's left of the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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