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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Daily departures for the past three days in Indiana (October 6-8).

BMG: -14, -14, -14

EVV: -14, -13, -11

EYE: -15, -17, -14

FWA: -12, -11, -13

GEZ: -11, -14, -14

GSH: -13, -13, -10

HUF: -12, -13, -13

IND: -14, -14, -14

IWX: -15, -11, -12

LAF: -17, -18, -15

MIE: -13, -17, -14

SBN: -16, -13, -11

October average temperature departures through the 8th.

BMG: -5.5º

EVV: -5.6º

EYE: -6.8º (no data for the 5th)

FWA: -4.5º

GEZ: -3.8º

GSH: -4.2º

HUF: -4.2º

IND: -5.8º

IWX: -5.6º

LAF: -8.1º :lol:

MIE: -5.3º

SBN: -4.6º

Lol. LAF really is the ice box around the state.

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Gfs and Euro ops neither have massive torches. Transient warm shot here and there and a fall-looking gradient pattern across the nation's mid/south section. At the end of both runs there is some real nice cold building in western Canada.

Also looks like some good shots of rain for those who really need it. Daddy you should be pretty happy looking at the CPC progs.

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Uh yeah...over MO and KS. Let's see if it slows down a bit (I.E. to put these areas in a more interesting position on Sunday).

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED

LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...

WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE

CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING

OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS

...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS

LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...

INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR

UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE

WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.

THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF

SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN

ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE

WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB

JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK

APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A

MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 10/09/2012

day48prob.gif

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Yeah really! Picked up 0.28" of cold rain this evening. Now we see how low it will go tonight! My forecast is saying 36°.

Felt like ice water falling from the sky tonight.

Either 2 or 3 years ago tomorrow (10/10) we had our first snowflakes of the season. Omaha picked up 4-5", and Des Moines had an inch. Nothing like that in the forecast, but we're now entering into the time frame when anything's possible.

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Felt like ice water falling from the sky tonight.

Either 2 or 3 years ago tomorrow (10/10) we had our first snowflakes of the season. Omaha picked up 4-5", and Des Moines had an inch. Nothing like that in the forecast, but we're now entering into the time range when anything's possible.

It looks like we'll have some fairly active weather beyond day 7, based on the upper level pattern.

I have no question that some areas will contend with a snow threat.

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Yes, but "THAT" attempted to downplay the potential by insisting that MAYBE only KS and MO would see some severe weather.

Meanwhile, the outlook stretches into MN, IL and WI as well.

That was where the best LLJ dynamics were being indicated in the map that you posted...how bloody dense are you?

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Felt like ice water falling from the sky tonight.

Either 2 or 3 years ago tomorrow (10/10) we had our first snowflakes of the season. Omaha picked up 4-5", and Des Moines had an inch. Nothing like that in the forecast, but we're now entering into the time frame when anything's possible.

This. For example, the high a year ago today at FWA was 80. Today's forecast high: 50. A flip from 15° above to 15° below normal.

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The MJO is forecast to go nuts in the next few weeks--deep into phases 8 and 1. As a result, the long range GFS goes crazy with the cold weather in the Oct 21-26 timeframe after a period of moderation the week before. The 06z GFS even shows the potential for a snow/rain to snow event for the Great Lakes around the 22nd.

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The MJO is forecast to go nuts in the next few weeks--deep into phases 8 and 1. As a result, the long range GFS goes crazy with the cold weather in the Oct 21-26 timeframe after a period of moderation the week before. The 06z GFS even shows the potential for a snow/rain to snow event for the Great Lakes around the 22nd.

This. GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent building cold into western/central Canada by the end of next week.

http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA216.gif

Euro ensembles not quite as cold:

http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2012101000!!/

NAEFS

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2012101000_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

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Hi all! I'm new here.

October has certainley been a back and forth month as far as temps go. Last Thursday, it was almost 80 degrees at Detroit, and a couple of days later it was only in the 50s. And yes, we did get some rain last night.

Anyway, I still believe that October 2012 will be a back and forth temperature month. It has been for the first week and a half, and I think it will continue.

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The MJO is forecast to go nuts in the next few weeks--deep into phases 8 and 1. As a result, the long range GFS goes crazy with the cold weather in the Oct 21-26 timeframe after a period of moderation the week before. The 06z GFS even shows the potential for a snow/rain to snow event for the Great Lakes around the 22nd.

This would be keeping with the 1976 and 2002 analogue. Both years, consistent below average temperatures arrived around October 20th.

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Right now the MJO ensembles have not updated since the 2nd. I'm not sure where it is in terms of phase right now.

Cold almost frosty morning here. Low 34°. Sunny skies with quite a few cottonball-like cumulus drifting by. Might be hard pressed to get out of the 40s today!

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