SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Daily departures for the past three days in Indiana (October 6-8). BMG: -14, -14, -14 EVV: -14, -13, -11 EYE: -15, -17, -14 FWA: -12, -11, -13 GEZ: -11, -14, -14 GSH: -13, -13, -10 HUF: -12, -13, -13 IND: -14, -14, -14 IWX: -15, -11, -12 LAF: -17, -18, -15 MIE: -13, -17, -14 SBN: -16, -13, -11 October average temperature departures through the 8th. BMG: -5.5º EVV: -5.6º EYE: -6.8º (no data for the 5th) FWA: -4.5º GEZ: -3.8º GSH: -4.2º HUF: -4.2º IND: -5.8º IWX: -5.6º LAF: -8.1º MIE: -5.3º SBN: -4.6º Lol. LAF really is the ice box around the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Lol. LAF really is the ice box around the state. Dang! Those guys be freezin' some body parts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Looking forward to Sunday, maybe a gale-force wind watch will be appropriate for Ohio. The GFS has 60 knots at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 .13" of rain...its something guess... cold...46F right now...rain is just finishing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Surface cold front directly over Madison, southerly winds at MSN and gustier west winds in Middleton. Clouds are so thick it looks like late evening, rain still 10-20 miles away. Gonna be a rainy evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Gfs and Euro ops neither have massive torches. Transient warm shot here and there and a fall-looking gradient pattern across the nation's mid/south section. At the end of both runs there is some real nice cold building in western Canada. Also looks like some good shots of rain for those who really need it. Daddy you should be pretty happy looking at the CPC progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 Uh yeah...over MO and KS. Let's see if it slows down a bit (I.E. to put these areas in a more interesting position on Sunday). DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012 VALID 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD... WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION... INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 10/09/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Our low temp tonight has been lowered to the upper 20s. It's still raining so I'm going to have to cover soaking wet plants in the dark. I've had more than enough of this awful weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Hit 64° today. About 3 hours up until sunset the skies darkened gradually. Shield of rain still about 55 miles away. Looking forward to a rainy evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Down to 43 °F, feels very refreshing. Rain just about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Cold front hit around 5. Temps quickly plummeted from the low 60s into the 40s. Cold rain falling right now with a temp of only 43. Picked up 0.16" so far, but it's about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Lol, that was a day before that outlook came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 A cold, wind driven rain here now. Down to 44°. Rain band is intensifying as it gets closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 hit 48F today... 2nd day in the 40Fs this month... yeehaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Rain ended up totaling 0.21". An absolute soaker for 2012 standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Rain ended up totaling 0.21". An absolute soaker for 2012 standards. Yeah really! Picked up 0.28" of cold rain this evening. Now we see how low it will go tonight! My forecast is saying 36°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Lol, that was a day before that outlook came out. Yes, but "THAT" attempted to downplay the potential by insisting that MAYBE only KS and MO would see some severe weather. Meanwhile, the outlook stretches into MN, IL and WI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yeah really! Picked up 0.28" of cold rain this evening. Now we see how low it will go tonight! My forecast is saying 36°. Felt like ice water falling from the sky tonight. Either 2 or 3 years ago tomorrow (10/10) we had our first snowflakes of the season. Omaha picked up 4-5", and Des Moines had an inch. Nothing like that in the forecast, but we're now entering into the time frame when anything's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Felt like ice water falling from the sky tonight. Either 2 or 3 years ago tomorrow (10/10) we had our first snowflakes of the season. Omaha picked up 4-5", and Des Moines had an inch. Nothing like that in the forecast, but we're now entering into the time range when anything's possible. It looks like we'll have some fairly active weather beyond day 7, based on the upper level pattern. I have no question that some areas will contend with a snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yes, but "THAT" attempted to downplay the potential by insisting that MAYBE only KS and MO would see some severe weather. Meanwhile, the outlook stretches into MN, IL and WI as well. That was where the best LLJ dynamics were being indicated in the map that you posted...how bloody dense are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Felt like ice water falling from the sky tonight. Either 2 or 3 years ago tomorrow (10/10) we had our first snowflakes of the season. Omaha picked up 4-5", and Des Moines had an inch. Nothing like that in the forecast, but we're now entering into the time frame when anything's possible. This. For example, the high a year ago today at FWA was 80. Today's forecast high: 50. A flip from 15° above to 15° below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The MJO is forecast to go nuts in the next few weeks--deep into phases 8 and 1. As a result, the long range GFS goes crazy with the cold weather in the Oct 21-26 timeframe after a period of moderation the week before. The 06z GFS even shows the potential for a snow/rain to snow event for the Great Lakes around the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The MJO is forecast to go nuts in the next few weeks--deep into phases 8 and 1. As a result, the long range GFS goes crazy with the cold weather in the Oct 21-26 timeframe after a period of moderation the week before. The 06z GFS even shows the potential for a snow/rain to snow event for the Great Lakes around the 22nd. This. GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent building cold into western/central Canada by the end of next week. http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA216.gif Euro ensembles not quite as cold: http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2012101000!!/ NAEFS http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2012101000_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Nws saying 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Nws saying 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area this weekend. Billion dollar rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Nws saying 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area this weekend. Yes. You need it so bad, even Milwaukee needs it bad now. Looks like it might actually be a statewide soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I hate rain. I want to go to the pumpkin farm Saturday. Looks like a big fail. Thank you ma nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasonthegreat Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Hi all! I'm new here. October has certainley been a back and forth month as far as temps go. Last Thursday, it was almost 80 degrees at Detroit, and a couple of days later it was only in the 50s. And yes, we did get some rain last night. Anyway, I still believe that October 2012 will be a back and forth temperature month. It has been for the first week and a half, and I think it will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The MJO is forecast to go nuts in the next few weeks--deep into phases 8 and 1. As a result, the long range GFS goes crazy with the cold weather in the Oct 21-26 timeframe after a period of moderation the week before. The 06z GFS even shows the potential for a snow/rain to snow event for the Great Lakes around the 22nd. This would be keeping with the 1976 and 2002 analogue. Both years, consistent below average temperatures arrived around October 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Right now the MJO ensembles have not updated since the 2nd. I'm not sure where it is in terms of phase right now. Cold almost frosty morning here. Low 34°. Sunny skies with quite a few cottonball-like cumulus drifting by. Might be hard pressed to get out of the 40s today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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