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October 2012 General Discussion


Powerball

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Dude, this is like 25 degrees below average (though the daily departure won't show that). I'd have no problem with this at a different time of year, but too early for me. At least things look to moderate soon.

Oh exalted moderator. Let us cold lovers enjoy this cold and don't remind us Indian summer is coming. Indian summer is for... well.. Back when Indians roamed the plains it was for them. Not us. :)

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Gotta be careful with those 120+ timeframes. Much like they did for the first wave, they tend to overdue 850's.

Looks like the cold pattern will last through 3 waves before upstream blocking breaks down and the PAC takes over for a period of days.............

I sorta got the feeling later on in October is going to have snowstorm for somebody. Just has that feel with on and off EPO blocking. I remember the Halloween storm of 1993.

93 or 91? I got stuck in the 91 storm up here and had to walk only a half mile back to campus. I seriously thought I was going to die. Our football game that weekend was actually cancelled because the storm was the day before. What I would give to see that again.

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DTX uses the S-word for the first time of the season (if only to deny the chances of it :P)

"THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING WHAT SORT OF SNOW POTENTIAL

EXISTS NEXT WEEK. WILL NOT GET BOGGED DOWN IN SPECIFICS ESPECIALLY

CONSIDERING THE MINUTES OLD ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH OFFERS NO SUPPORT

FOR SNOWFLAKES. WILL INSTEAD GIVE A REMINDER THAT MODELS OVERALL

STRUGGLE TO HANDLE AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE/EVENTS

DURING ALL TIMES OF THE YEAR/INCLUDING THE TRANSITION SEASONS. THIS

TYPICALLY LEADS TO UNDERFORECASTING WARM UPS IN PRECEDING WAA

REGIMES...AND UNDERFORECASTING THE COLD TEMPERATURE DROP POST COLD

FRONTS. WILL ALSO POINT OUT THAT IN THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION...AT NO

TIME DOES THE SOLUTION SUPPORT FREEZING LEVELS BELOW 1000 FT AGL."

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The 91 one was in the Plains and the more historical of the 2. The 93 one was in the ohio valley with slushy heavy accums. I think Pittsburgh got 6 inches or something like that.

If we are going by "gut feelings" this year, lol, then my gut feeling looking at the CPC progs and the storm track setting up by the end of next week... that the Ohio Valley is going to be the sweet spot this year. They are overdue.

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I don't have to like it, but it is sure looking like the week of the 14th-20 is the week a lot of us on this sub forum could catch up on some rain and temperature defecits. We may miss out on a lot of it up here, but central Iowa on south and east sure look rainy/stormy, both on the ensembles and the ops. Great write up over in the New England subforum on this. Man, things are just absolutely tinder dry around here.

http://www.americanw...-for-a-website/

I love weather and talking long range, Ma Nature gives you the finger quite often when trying to do this... but perhaps this is the beginning of the early winter pattern? I just think come November/December the Iowa to Chicago to the Ohio valley/Michigan could really cash in on this if this is what they think the main storm track is going to be. I guess we'll see. :snowing:

post-1834-0-65314600-1349475736_thumb.gi

post-1834-0-36037500-1349476040_thumb.gi

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I'm thinking we are at peak here in Livingston county. It might be the tree-type or lack of UHI, but with the majority of trees in color and some starting to drop... I'm not sure how it couldn't qualify for a beginning to peak.

foliage_mw_cur_440x297.jpg

That would be tree type and the sun. We are about 70% peak around here with the exception of the non native trees.

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I'm thinking we are at peak here in Livingston county. It might be the tree-type or lack of UHI, but with the majority of trees in color and some starting to drop... I'm not sure how it couldn't qualify for a beginning to peak.

foliage_mw_cur_440x297.jpg

Were near peak here. Its definitely not patchy. Heck I might have to rake a little tomorrow.

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Max temps today, and their departures from normal max temps for today (per today's latest climate reports).

Burlington IA: 46º -25º

Joplin MO: 52º -23º

Cedar Rapids IA: 45º -22º

Lincoln IL: 48º -22º

Peoria IL: 47º -22º

Springfield IL: 49º -22º

Columbia MO: 50º -21º

Iowa City IA: 47º -21º

Moline IL: 48º -21º

Quincy IL: 48º -21º

Decatur IL: 51º -20º

Springfield MO: 53º -20º

Dubuque IA: 47º -19º

Champaign IL: 52º -18º

Davenport IA: 49º -18º

Lafayette IN: 52º -18º

St. Louis MO: 54º -18º

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