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October 2012 General Discussion


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GFS has shown some storms during the first week off and on in its runs. Would love a typical large scale autumn storm to soak the region.

Edit: CPC 6-10day outlook shows normal temperature and drier conditions in the western GL. Then a cooler, wetter pattern as we get into the 8-14day range.

NAEFS hangs onto the trough as well.

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The models look to have the polar jet sitting up near the Canadian border, which should keep things mild and dry.

Anyone know whats up with what looks to be a cutoff low that develops in Michigan and drifts SW into Arkansas, doesn't really show any precip with it however.

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Save the gales for November. For me, October is a month where I want two-thirds days to have crystal clear blue skies and crisp air, and the other to have an overcast sky with chill, both ways to enjoy the gorgeous foliage. Once we pass Halloween, I will welcome continuous gray skies and storms and snow with OPEN ARMS!

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Save the gales for November. For me, October is a month where I want two-thirds days to have crystal clear blue skies and crisp air, and the other to have an overcast sky with chill, both ways to enjoy the gorgeous foliage. Once we pass Halloween, I will welcome continuous gray skies and storms and snow with OPEN ARMS!

You have got to check out highland state park this fall dude. You will flip over the canopy of reds.

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Any longer range I have looked at, no matter what the pattern, has been drier than a popcorn fart for us. Looks warm too. Just what we need.

aaaaand now the Euro op and the GFS want to trade places. Euro op gives the finger to the deep west coast trough and instead torches us for a day and has a lot of cold in Canada ready to come down into the central US. GFS torches the plains/midwest for like, a week... facepalm. Why do I look at these things? You would think I would have learned by now...

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Although it was dry last winter, we've only really seen drought type conditions since May, and that has subsided somewhat in the last two months, although admittedly too late.

The March torch set the foundation for the drought this year - or at least helped make it easier for it to develop.

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LOT is talking up the warmth potential for next week. Even mentioning the rare October 90F potenial...

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME

INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AS AN UPPER

RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY

ALLOWING A VERY WARM AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN FACT WE MAY

NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM RECORD VALUES BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS BY

WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE VERY WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE

PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES

THIS WOULD RANK WITHIN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF TEMPERATURES AT 850

MB AT KORD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS WE

COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY

UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THAT MAY DROP ACROSS

THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS FRONT HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH ON

THURSDAY WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE AROUND

90 ON THE 3RD OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WARM

SPELL MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE

NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE

OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH

AMERICA.

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LOT is talking up the warmth potential for next week. Even mentioning the rare October 90F potenial...

LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME

INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AS AN UPPER

RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY

ALLOWING A VERY WARM AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN FACT WE MAY

NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM RECORD VALUES BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS BY

WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE VERY WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE

PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES

THIS WOULD RANK WITHIN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF TEMPERATURES AT 850

MB AT KORD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS WE

COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY

UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THAT MAY DROP ACROSS

THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS FRONT HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH ON

THURSDAY WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE AROUND

90 ON THE 3RD OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WARM

SPELL MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE

NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE

OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH

AMERICA.

Then explain how they are coming up with this for the last two days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

I know over on the New England subforum the guys are saying the Euro ensembles look nothing like the op and have cold in the northern plains over to the Great Lakes. 18z GFS did this- between hour 156 and 180, which ALMOST makes it believable... I don't know what to believe any more except I might not look at models for the rest of my life...

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I hope it's OK to copy and paste.

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snapback.pngTyphoon Tip, on 26 September 2012 - 03:53 PM, said:

I think I'd put the odds of the Euro's operational solution's D7-10 verifying at about 97% against. Toss it -

The ensembles definitely don't agree with it. They ahve a pretty cold northern tier...esp N plains into the N lakes...we eventually get some of it.

So the 00z gfs will probably go back to torch tonight... but for the last 3 days CPC has been predicting the cold shot. Maybe we could get God on here to tell us what to believe. I hate weather.

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Then explain how they are coming up with this for the last two days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

I know over on the New England subforum the guys are saying the Euro ensembles look nothing like the op and have cold in the northern plains over to the Great Lakes. 18z GFS did this- between hour 156 and 180, which ALMOST makes it believable... I don't know what to believe any more except I might not look at models for the rest of my life...

Add in the NAEFS for the colder solution also. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

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You can make case for any solution you want by picking apart multiple models and Ensambles. It does look to get warm and LOT is one the best offices region wide. I'd run with it just based on that one reason alone.

Sparty, dear Sparty, we've had some nice banter and good conversations, but sometimes you're a lunkhead. I am talking about what happens after next Wednesday. 00z GFS has the same pattern change at the same time. Big shot of October air coming down into the Northern Plains/Midwest/Lakes after next Wednesday. I think it has figured out the pattern change. The guys on the New England forum were arguing that the Euro didn't have it figured out. I wasn't questioning LOT's integrity and Gino Izzi is the craziest, funnest met out there.

Looks like a complete pattern change to split flow with a healthy southern stream.

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