Powerball Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Hopefully we can finally amp up the pattern this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 GFS has shown some storms during the first week off and on in its runs. Would love a typical large scale autumn storm to soak the region. Edit: CPC 6-10day outlook shows normal temperature and drier conditions in the western GL. Then a cooler, wetter pattern as we get into the 8-14day range. NAEFS hangs onto the trough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The models look to have the polar jet sitting up near the Canadian border, which should keep things mild and dry. Anyone know whats up with what looks to be a cutoff low that develops in Michigan and drifts SW into Arkansas, doesn't really show any precip with it however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Looks relatively benign. Although, it's not like the models have been all that consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Looks relatively benign. Although, it's not like the models have been all that consistent. Any longer range I have looked at, no matter what the pattern, has been drier than a popcorn fart for us. Looks warm too. Just what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Any longer range I have looked at, no matter what the pattern, has been drier than a popcorn fart for us. Looks warm too. Just what we need. Trends die hard, along with multi year droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Save the gales for November. For me, October is a month where I want two-thirds days to have crystal clear blue skies and crisp air, and the other to have an overcast sky with chill, both ways to enjoy the gorgeous foliage. Once we pass Halloween, I will welcome continuous gray skies and storms and snow with OPEN ARMS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Save the gales for November. For me, October is a month where I want two-thirds days to have crystal clear blue skies and crisp air, and the other to have an overcast sky with chill, both ways to enjoy the gorgeous foliage. Once we pass Halloween, I will welcome continuous gray skies and storms and snow with OPEN ARMS! You have got to check out highland state park this fall dude. You will flip over the canopy of reds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Trends die hard, along with multi year droughts. Yeah, this sure qualifies as a multi year drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 You have got to check out highland state park this fall dude. You will flip over the canopy of reds. I plan on it! Going up north Oct 9-12 for some peeping, then will definitely check out Highland probably the 3rd week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Any longer range I have looked at, no matter what the pattern, has been drier than a popcorn fart for us. Looks warm too. Just what we need. aaaaand now the Euro op and the GFS want to trade places. Euro op gives the finger to the deep west coast trough and instead torches us for a day and has a lot of cold in Canada ready to come down into the central US. GFS torches the plains/midwest for like, a week... facepalm. Why do I look at these things? You would think I would have learned by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Eh? I don't see much of a difference. Looks like Indian summer for _____ days. Hopefully the 6th-8th period it ends. When I say torch, I mean the red 850s creeping up into the northern plains like they do on the 7-8 day Euro. That is a torch. 12c 850s is Indian summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I like the Bermuda/sub-tropical ridge being progged to setup in the east on the GFS/Euro ensembles, now we just need a system to tap that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 This would be a good start. Me like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 And Andy sure looks like that east coast high is going to give them plenty of precip. Wish we could get some of that. Need it so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I like all the cold air that is going to flood Canada in the next 7 days: Today: Day 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Trends die hard, along with multi year droughts. Multi-drought years here are rare, havent seen one in decades. Of course, we are not in a drought anyway. 2011 was the wettest year on record, and precip this year is only slightly below normal. We hear cries of drought at times almost every summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yeah, this sure qualifies as a multi year drought. Its getting there bud. Almost a calendar year...... Frightens me to think of this progressing any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Its getting there bud. Almost a calendar year...... Frightens me to think of this progressing any longer. Although it was dry last winter, we've only really seen drought type conditions since May, and that has subsided somewhat in the last two months, although admittedly too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 It's been a multi-year drought farther west. I don't think you can really call it that in this region yet but it very well could end up going into next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Although it was dry last winter, we've only really seen drought type conditions since May, and that has subsided somewhat in the last two months, although admittedly too late. The March torch set the foundation for the drought this year - or at least helped make it easier for it to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Its getting there bud. Almost a calendar year...... Frightens me to think of this progressing any longer. You ARE referring to the drought out west I assume? After the wettest year on record in 2011, I fully expected 2012 to be drier...which it has been, but nothing extreme here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 You ARE referring to the drought out west I assume? After the wettest year on record in 2011, I fully expected 2012 to be drier...which it has been, but nothing extreme here at all. A drought is drought. We had D1 conditions pushing north not long ago. -3 for the year still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 LOT is talking up the warmth potential for next week. Even mentioning the rare October 90F potenial... LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A VERY WARM AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN FACT WE MAY NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM RECORD VALUES BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE VERY WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES THIS WOULD RANK WITHIN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AT KORD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS WE COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THAT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS FRONT HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH ON THURSDAY WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE AROUND 90 ON THE 3RD OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WARM SPELL MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 LOT is talking up the warmth potential for next week. Even mentioning the rare October 90F potenial... LATER IN THE EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A VERY WARM AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN FACT WE MAY NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM RECORD VALUES BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP AROUND 16 DEGREES CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE VERY WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS FORECAST VERIFIES THIS WOULD RANK WITHIN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AT KORD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS WE COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THAT MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS FRONT HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH ON THURSDAY WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS...WHICH ARE AROUND 90 ON THE 3RD OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WARM SPELL MAY CONTINUE OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. Then explain how they are coming up with this for the last two days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ I know over on the New England subforum the guys are saying the Euro ensembles look nothing like the op and have cold in the northern plains over to the Great Lakes. 18z GFS did this- between hour 156 and 180, which ALMOST makes it believable... I don't know what to believe any more except I might not look at models for the rest of my life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I hope it's OK to copy and paste. SNE wx FOCUS 23,225 posts Joined November 9, 2010 Location:KORH Typhoon Tip, on 26 September 2012 - 03:53 PM, said: I think I'd put the odds of the Euro's operational solution's D7-10 verifying at about 97% against. Toss it - The ensembles definitely don't agree with it. They ahve a pretty cold northern tier...esp N plains into the N lakes...we eventually get some of it. So the 00z gfs will probably go back to torch tonight... but for the last 3 days CPC has been predicting the cold shot. Maybe we could get God on here to tell us what to believe. I hate weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Then explain how they are coming up with this for the last two days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ I know over on the New England subforum the guys are saying the Euro ensembles look nothing like the op and have cold in the northern plains over to the Great Lakes. 18z GFS did this- between hour 156 and 180, which ALMOST makes it believable... I don't know what to believe any more except I might not look at models for the rest of my life... Add in the NAEFS for the colder solution also. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 You can make case for any solution you want by picking apart multiple models and Ensambles. It does look to get warm and LOT is one the best offices region wide. I'd run with it just based on that one reason alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 You can make case for any solution you want by picking apart multiple models and Ensambles. It does look to get warm and LOT is one the best offices region wide. I'd run with it just based on that one reason alone. Sparty, dear Sparty, we've had some nice banter and good conversations, but sometimes you're a lunkhead. I am talking about what happens after next Wednesday. 00z GFS has the same pattern change at the same time. Big shot of October air coming down into the Northern Plains/Midwest/Lakes after next Wednesday. I think it has figured out the pattern change. The guys on the New England forum were arguing that the Euro didn't have it figured out. I wasn't questioning LOT's integrity and Gino Izzi is the craziest, funnest met out there. Looks like a complete pattern change to split flow with a healthy southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Read the last several pages of the thread, especially the last page, ignoring the usual New England banter. October, real October is coming after mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.