SACRUS Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 DCA: +1.6 NYC: +1.7 BOS: +1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 DCA: 0.7 NYC: 1.1 BOS: 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 DCA +0.9 NYC:+ 0.8 BOS: +0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 October DCA: +0.7 NYC: +0.5 BOS: +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 dca +1.1 nyc+1.7 bos+0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 DCA: 0.0 NYC: -1.2 BOS: -1.8 Total: -3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Sorry I'm late. If it's too late, I understand. DCA: - 1.3 NYC: +0.8 BOS: + 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Sorry I'm late. If it's too late, I understand. DCA: - 1.3 NYC: +0.8 BOS: + 0.1 Per the rules, you'll get a little over a third of your total score hacked off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The month started very warm then turned cold, and the balance so far (after 10 days) is ... DCA .. +1.2 NYC .. +1.0 BOS .. +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 After 16 days ... DCA ... -0.1 NYC ... -0.5 BOS ... +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 After 20 days ... DCA .. +0.6 NYC .. +0.2 BOS .. +1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 After 24 days ... DCA ... +1.6 NYC ... +0.6 BOS ... +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 After 27 days ... DCA .. +2.5 NYC .. +1.3 BOS .. +2.1 Probably more downward pressure on DCA than BOS from now to end of month, as DCA will be into cold advection much earlier and also more of it ... in fact BOS could gain slightly from current value with 2-3 days more in the +5 zone so that my estimates for end of month are DCA +1.8, NYC +1.4 and BOS +2.3. I also anticipate that we may be dealing with a few days of estimated values and waiting for final numbers especially NYC. The closest set of forecasts that I can see from a quick look through them would be the first one from goobagooba and (s)he would be even closer if I have underestimated cooling at DCA. ChicagoWx and C-C-GA have similar tied for second place type efforts (I think) with DCA and NYC nailed but BOS too low so they could close in on goobagooba if BOS falls off rather than rising a bit. Lots of rather similar scores likely (again, my opinion) in the 150-200 range with a cluster of guesses that are generally too high or too low by about a degree each station.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 After 30 days with my money-back guarantee of final numbers (not really) ... DCA .. +1.8 (+1.6) NYC .. +1.3 (+1.2) BOS .. +2.5 (+2.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Final values ... DCA .. +1.5 NYC .. +1.1 BOS .. +2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Final values ... DCA .. +1.5 NYC .. +1.1 BOS .. +2.5 to bad we are not using un smoothed numbers...All twelve months are 0.4 below the real monthly averages...That means NYC was +0.7 from the 1981-2010 October monthly average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 for the record, i am a he. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Goobagooba, I guessed right then (s)he on weather forums is almost always a he. I am also a he but that would probably be a bit less obscured by my username. Uncle W, can you elaborate on your point about the smoothed data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Goobagooba, I guessed right then (s)he on weather forums is almost always a he. I am also a he but that would probably be a bit less obscured by my username. Uncle W, can you elaborate on your point about the smoothed data? I'm guessing Uncle is differentiating between the finalized normals and what you would get by just using the raw actuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 DCA: + 1.2 NYC: +1.4 BOS: + 2.1 Know this is the first but hey, got a 5 day old crumbsnatcher keeping me preoccupied. The first and best, with a total deviation of only 1.0 degrees. Congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm guessing Uncle is differentiating between the finalized normals and what you would get by just using the raw actuals. yes that's what I mean...You're using actuals and comparing it to finalized normals which in NYC's case is about 0.4 below the actual for each month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 yes that's what I mean...You're using actuals and comparing it to finalized normals which in NYC's case is about 0.4 below the actual for each month... For DCA, the 1981-2010 normals average only 0.1 degree below the 1981-2010 average temperatures for each month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 For DCA, the 1981-2010 normals average only 0.1 degree below the 1981-2010 average temperatures for each month. -0.1 I can live with but it still isn't the actual average...I should have said -0.4 for most months...An annual temperature +0.4 is a significant number above average...I'm a numbers guy and this drives me nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is only a problem if Mallow uses the same provisional data, and if the provisional data really don't factor in the rounding errors. I have no idea whether either of these issues affect the contest or not. I understand what you're saying about rounded means but are you sure the climate data are allowing this error to accumulate, or are they posting a running anomaly based on the final methodology? I have never checked it out, have you actually seen these numbers reposted at different values later? If so, how long after the end of the month are the final numbers available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Actually, the problem seems to be solved by the NWS. They seem to be keeping track of adjusted daily means by dividing the total of max and min by 2 x n (n = number of days). This eliminates the rounding error. I checked NYC which is still showing +1.1 as the anomaly. The sum of daily anomalies was listed as 44 which would have implied a monthly anomaly of +1.4 but with 17 days having a rounded up daily mean, that reduces the actual sum to 35.5 (44-8.5) which divided by 31 gives 1.1 as reported. So when you look at the tables during the month and see days that you think are pushing the average up by rounding, the running anomaly is adjusting this out of play, I think. For example, for the same station after 3 days in November, the total of three days is -15 (daily anomalies) but the month is given as -5.3 and there have been two out of three days rounded already, that would imply the total is actually -16 rather than -15 (hence -5.3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Actually, the problem seems to be solved by the NWS. They seem to be keeping track of adjusted daily means by dividing the total of max and min by 2 x n (n = number of days). This eliminates the rounding error. I checked NYC which is still showing +1.1 as the anomaly. The sum of daily anomalies was listed as 44 which would have implied a monthly anomaly of +1.4 but with 17 days having a rounded up daily mean, that reduces the actual sum to 35.5 (44-8.5) which divided by 31 gives 1.1 as reported. So when you look at the tables during the month and see days that you think are pushing the average up by rounding, the running anomaly is adjusting this out of play, I think. For example, for the same station after 3 days in November, the total of three days is -15 (daily anomalies) but the month is given as -5.3 and there have been two out of three days rounded already, that would imply the total is actually -16 rather than -15 (hence -5.3). October 2012 ended up averaging 58.0 in NYC...This is an average of the 31 days max/min temperatures...From 1981-2010 the 30 Octobers that were compiled the same averaged 57.3...The new monthly normal 1981-2010 is 56.9 smoothed...It's almost like comparing apples and oranges...As far as the contest goes it means little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The first and best, with a total deviation of only 1.0 degrees. Congratulations. sweet. ta very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Final values ... DCA .. +1.5 NYC .. +1.1 BOS .. +2.5 Boston DESTROYED ME! ..... I was 1.6 off in that city alone. I nailed NYC and was only off 0.3 in DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bump..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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