mappy Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 My son's due date was Feb 8, 2010. I was the only fool out there on my street on the 5th, 6th, 9th and 10th shoveling in a blizzard. Hahahaha, I assume he was a few days late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 When my son was born (Jan. 2011), it was FREEZING. The worst part was the "bed" for the dads in the hospital room was right next to the window. Which meant I had a draft all night. Not pleasant, especially when I already had a headache from lack of food. I can imagine that was not fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 As long as my baby isn't born *during* a snowstorm, I'll be OK. I don't want to miss a storm. You can make a baby anytime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 A little close to my wife's due date. As long as I don't have to fight a snowy rush hour to get to the hospital, I'm fine with it. Keep me posted. I think those are the dates he used last year. I can't really remember. Best wishes on your little one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What does SNO have to say about this? Winter 2012-13 Temps Dec + 1 Jan even Feb - 1 Snowfall DCA 8-12 BWI 12-16 IAD 14-18 Best SNO period (Jan 24-26 & Feb 14-16) late week / weekend rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 My son's due date was Feb 8, 2010. I was the only fool out there on my street on the 5th, 6th, 9th and 10th shoveling in a blizzard. What we're you rooting for during the days leading up? Big bustola or the storm that set records that may never be topped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I am maybe 80/20 no/yes snow on the due date right now What if models are showing a classic miller A (triple phaser) 7 days out from your due date? Huge swath of 12-24" up 95 on the clown maps. That's awful tough to root against. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 As long as my baby isn't born *during* a snowstorm, I'll be OK. I don't want to miss a storm. You can make a baby anytime... Hahahahahahahaahaha spoken like a true weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Hahahaha, I assume he was a few days late Yup, the 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What we're you rooting for during the days leading up? Big bustola or the storm that set records that may never be topped? I was rooting bigtime for the Feb 5/6 storm. I had a feeling he'd be a bit late, since my daughter was also a few days late. Was not too excited for the 9/10 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Yup, the 14th. Well that's good, at least you didn't miss the snowstorm. That was the only downside to my wedding day, I couldn't fully enjoy the snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 My son's due date was Feb 8, 2010. I was the only fool out there on my street on the 5th, 6th, 9th and 10th shoveling in a blizzard. Our oldest was born Feb. 18, 2010 and the weeks leading up to him were a bit tense to say the least! You weren't the only fool shoveling, let me tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Even last winter wasn't that warm was it? 7th warmest on record in Baltimore, 3rd warmest in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 H He basically issues the same forecast every year, and it really seems like he's just pulling this forecast out of his ass. How anyone can go out and forecast record conditions nearly six months in advance is beyond me! He offers no reasoning, no analog years, nothing. This forecast is as good as blizz22 saying "snowy winter coming sne more later"! Last Feb was +5.3 at DCA. That was only 4th warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim_in_CA Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Man, I'm going to miss these threads all winter . I am now living out in Silicon Valley where a "cold" day is a high of 55. I guess it's at least better than SoCal with some seasonal variation - and there's always Tahoe. But I sure will miss the storm tracking aspect. Of course.. I may still track MA storms and live vicariously through photo threads. And I will be home at Thanksgiving and hopefully 2 weeks at Christmas. So there's still hope! . I'll start with hoping KA's "forecast" is dead wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Enjoy! 5" total for DCA. Dec:+1 to +2 in temps Jan and Feb: +4 to +5 This was a really good outlook, even if he got DEC and FEB a little screwy........ A- I think if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Snowfall is the most difficult to call, but temps have consistently been running above average for some time now.....can't go wrong with a call like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Snowfall is the most difficult to call, but temps have consistently been running above average for some time now.....can't go wrong with a call like that! i think February call is the only thing that keeps it from an A....you can't go for a home run on temps for a specific month and get on the wrong side of the departure, but just a half-grade deduction for that...A- outlook...excellent job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 i think February call is the only thing that keeps it from an A....you can't go for a home run on temps for a specific month and get on the wrong side of the departure, but just a half-grade deduction for that...A- outlook...excellent jobI think you're being a little too charitable. Comparing your CWG temperature forecast to his, in December you both were on the right side of the departure, but on the low side; in January you were both on the right side of the departure, but yours was a little low while his nailed it; and in February yours was just a little on the low side while his missed the mark badly. So, overall, your temperature forecast was better. On the other hand, his snow forecast was superb, while yours was too high, even though you correctly foresaw a below normal season. So, I would give you both a solid B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think you're being a little too charitable. Comparing your CWG temperature forecast to his, in December you both were on the right side of the departure, but on the low side; in January you were both on the right side of the departure, but yours was a little low while his nailed it; and in February yours was just a little on the low side while his missed the mark badly. So, overall, your temperature forecast was better. On the other hand, his snow forecast was superb, while yours was too high, even though you correctly foresaw a below normal season. So, I would give you both a solid B. unless something crazy happens, his snow call is an A+, his overall seasonal temp call is an A, and his monthly calls are a B-/C+ everyone has their own way, but I kind of like something like the following breakdown Snow: 40% Seasonal Temp Call: 30% Monthlies 30%: which is a solid A-...i dont see how you give KA any worse than a B+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 His call seems to be one of the best if not the best for the winter.. of course if you're publishing a post for thousands of people you can't go with 5" snowfall unless you're crazy. Not sure I'd weight snow so high as that's probably the biggest guess in the whole thing. A- might be a bit high given Feb was a total flub on temps, but agree it's somewhere near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 unless something crazy happens, his snow call is an A+, his overall seasonal temp call is an A, and his monthly calls are a B-/C+ everyone has their own way, but I kind of like something like the following breakdown Snow: 40% Seasonal Temp Call: 30% Monthlies 30%: which is a solid A-...i dont see how you give KA any worse than a B+... My formula is more like: Snow: 30% Seasonal Temp Call: 10% Monthlies: 60% I think getting the monthly temperature calls right is the big deal, whereas accurate seasonal temperature forecasts can be pretty much a matter of luck. For example, if someone had forecast for this season at DCA December -1, January -1, and February +10, s/he would have been spot on with the seasonal forecast, but wildly off on what actually took place. Which is not to say that was the case with KA. He was going for the Winter Forecaster Hall of Fame headed into February, then stumbled badly, but I think lucked out a bit on the snow front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That is a great seasonal forecast. Zwyts was also-please post it again. Most everyone else was too cold and/or snowy. Zwyts and KA are separated from the pack. December call of +1 to +2 with a+ 5.6 realized is a C+ call. January call of +4 to +5 with a +4.3 realized is dead bullseye, A+ February call of +4 to +5 with a -0.7 realized is a E Overall call of +3 to +4 with a +3.1 realized is bullseye again A That is a very good overall temeparature call. 5" snowfall call is an A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That is a great seasonal forecast. Zwyts was also-please post it again. Most everyone else was too cold and/or snowy. Zwyts and KA are separated from the pack. December call of +1 to +2 with a+ 5.6 realized is a C+ call. January call of +4 to +5 with a +4.3 realized is dead bullseye, A+ February call of +4 to +5 with a -0.7 realized is a E Overall call of +3 to +4 with a +3.1 realized is bullseye again A That is a very good overall temeparature call. 5" snowfall call is an A. KA is back after a 4 year losing streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 KA is back after a 4 year losing streak May not be after Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 May not be after Wednesday. That won't count.. But it will in the outlooks that still need snow to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 That won't count.. But it will in the outlooks that still need snow to verify. His snow call is for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That won't count.. But it will in the outlooks that still need snow to verify. how can snow in early march not count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 how can snow in early march not count? It's like Mante Teo's girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's like Mante Teo's girlfriend. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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