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KA's 2012-13 Winter Outlook


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When my son was born (Jan. 2011), it was FREEZING. The worst part was the "bed" for the dads in the hospital room was right next to the window. Which meant I had a draft all night. Not pleasant, especially when I already had a headache from lack of food.

I can imagine that was not fun

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What we're you rooting for during the days leading up? Big bustola or the storm that set records that may never be topped?

I was rooting bigtime for the Feb 5/6 storm. I had a feeling he'd be a bit late, since my daughter was also a few days late. Was not too excited for the 9/10 storm.

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H

He basically issues the same forecast every year, and it really seems like he's just pulling this forecast out of his ass. How anyone can go out and forecast record conditions nearly six months in advance is beyond me! He offers no reasoning, no analog years, nothing. This forecast is as good as blizz22 saying "snowy winter coming sne more later"!

Last Feb was +5.3 at DCA. That was only 4th warmest.

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Man, I'm going to miss these threads all winter :). I am now living out in Silicon Valley where a "cold" day is a high of 55. I guess it's at least better than SoCal with some seasonal variation - and there's always Tahoe. But I sure will miss the storm tracking aspect. Of course.. I may still track MA storms and live vicariously through photo threads. And I will be home at Thanksgiving and hopefully 2 weeks at Christmas. So there's still hope! ;). I'll start with hoping KA's "forecast" is dead wrong!

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  • 5 months later...

Snowfall is the most difficult to call, but temps have consistently been running above average for some time now.....can't go wrong with a call like that!

 

i think February call is the only thing that keeps it from an A....you can't go for a home run on temps for a specific month and get on the wrong side of the departure, but just a half-grade deduction for that...A- outlook...excellent job

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i think February call is the only thing that keeps it from an A....you can't go for a home run on temps for a specific month and get on the wrong side of the departure, but just a half-grade deduction for that...A- outlook...excellent job

I think you're being a little too charitable. Comparing your CWG temperature forecast to his, in December you both were on the right side of the departure, but on the low side; in January you were both on the right side of the departure, but yours was a little low while his nailed it; and in February yours was just a little on the low side while his missed the mark badly. So, overall, your temperature forecast was better. On the other hand, his snow forecast was superb, while yours was too high, even though you correctly foresaw a below normal season. So, I would give you both a solid B.
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I think you're being a little too charitable. Comparing your CWG temperature forecast to his, in December you both were on the right side of the departure, but on the low side; in January you were both on the right side of the departure, but yours was a little low while his nailed it; and in February yours was just a little on the low side while his missed the mark badly. So, overall, your temperature forecast was better. On the other hand, his snow forecast was superb, while yours was too high, even though you correctly foresaw a below normal season. So, I would give you both a solid B.

 

unless something crazy happens, his snow call is an A+, his overall seasonal temp call is an A, and his monthly calls are a B-/C+

 

everyone has their own way, but I kind of like something like the following breakdown

 

Snow: 40%

Seasonal Temp Call: 30%

Monthlies 30%: 

 

which is a solid A-...i dont see how you give KA any worse than a B+...

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His call seems to be one of the best if not the best for the winter.. of course if you're publishing a post for thousands of people you can't go with 5" snowfall unless you're crazy. 

 

Not sure I'd weight snow so high as that's probably the biggest guess in the whole thing. 

 

A- might be a bit high given Feb was a total flub on temps, but agree it's somewhere near there.

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unless something crazy happens, his snow call is an A+, his overall seasonal temp call is an A, and his monthly calls are a B-/C+

 

everyone has their own way, but I kind of like something like the following breakdown

 

Snow: 40%

Seasonal Temp Call: 30%

Monthlies 30%: 

 

which is a solid A-...i dont see how you give KA any worse than a B+...

My formula is more like:

Snow: 30%

Seasonal Temp Call: 10%

Monthlies: 60%

I think getting the monthly temperature calls right is the big deal, whereas accurate seasonal temperature forecasts can be pretty much a matter of luck. For example, if someone had forecast for this season at DCA December -1, January -1, and February +10, s/he would have been spot on with the seasonal forecast, but wildly off on what actually took place. Which is not to say that was the case with KA. He was going for the Winter Forecaster Hall of Fame headed into February, then stumbled badly, but I think lucked out a bit on the snow front.

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That is a great seasonal forecast.  Zwyts was also-please post it again.  Most everyone else was too cold and/or snowy.  Zwyts and KA are separated from the pack.

 

December call of +1 to +2 with a+ 5.6 realized is a C+ call.

January call of +4 to +5 with a +4.3 realized is dead bullseye, A+

February call of +4 to +5 with a -0.7 realized is a E

Overall call of +3 to +4 with a +3.1 realized is bullseye again A

That is a very good overall temeparature call.

 

5" snowfall call is an A.

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That is a great seasonal forecast. Zwyts was also-please post it again. Most everyone else was too cold and/or snowy. Zwyts and KA are separated from the pack.

December call of +1 to +2 with a+ 5.6 realized is a C+ call.

January call of +4 to +5 with a +4.3 realized is dead bullseye, A+

February call of +4 to +5 with a -0.7 realized is a E

Overall call of +3 to +4 with a +3.1 realized is bullseye again A

That is a very good overall temeparature call.

5" snowfall call is an A.

KA is back after a 4 year losing streak

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