Deck Pic Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 As bad as KA has been-- his outlook was like the "kickoff" to winter outlook season. So, the ball is just sitting on the Tee. (No, no I don't consider JB or accuweather legit outlooks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 ????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I bet he goes with below average snowfall again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Any links to this 'outlook'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Any links to this 'outlook'? That's what Zwyts is looking for. Weather53 used to share KA's forecast, but I don't believe he's posting here anymore. Maybe Ian can get it on their next weather photography mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 That's what Zwyts is looking for. Weather53 used to share KA's forecast, but I don't believe he's posting here anymore. Maybe Ian can get it on their next weather photography mission. WX53 posts here as Tenman Johnson. I think he said at some point he won't post KA's forecast ever again. Once KA missed a few calls and the mystique wore off and the criticism began, they took their football and went home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 WX53 posts here as Tenman Johnson. I think he said at some point he won't post KA's forecast ever again. Once KA missed a few calls and the mystique wore off and the criticism began, they took their football and went home. smart move considering the ref calls around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 KA has been wrong a lot in the last few years, so who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 No snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 No snow for you That's what I'm afraid of. Seriously, I don't see us getting shut out but also don't see a mega snow year. Right now Matt's leaning towards the median looks like a smart play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Enjoy! 5" total for DCA. Dec:+1 to +2 in temps Jan and Feb: +4 to +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 That's what I'm afraid of. Seriously, I don't see us getting shut out but also don't see a mega snow year. Right now Matt's leaning towards the median looks like a smart play. I don't know about the rest of you, but I hate living here in central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Enjoy! 5" total for DCA. Dec:+1 to +2 in temps Jan and Feb: +4 to +5 Is this legit Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Is this legit Ian? Yes. I met KA last yr and got it from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Enjoy! 5" total for DCA. Dec:+1 to +2 in temps Jan and Feb: +4 to +5 1) This 5" for DCA is 4" below 1968-9, which is the least snowiest of the analogs I'm using (see below). -PDO DJF: 1911-2, 1951-2, 1963-4, 1968-9 21.8, 10.2, 33.6, 9.1 +PDO DJF: 1904-5, 1939-40, 1976-7 41.0, 25.3, 11.1 So, I'd think that DCA would more likely at least be closer to its 12" median..say the 9-11" range. Regardless, predicting snowfall is like throwing slightly loaded dice. 2) Of my nine anlogs, only 1951-2 was warmer than normal for DJF, combined. That winter was the only of my nine analogs that had both a -PDO and a +NAO for DJF. So, this is reasonable to me IFF DJF has both a -PDO and a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yes. I met KA last yr and got it from him. Umm... OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Is this legit Ian? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Umm... OK? Why would I lie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I doubt it. It's legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 It's legit Seriously? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 i'll take the under on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Seriously? Lol I just copy/pasted. I doubt it's some grand plan to fool all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 i'll take the under on temps Even last winter wasn't that warm was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 i'll take the under on temps He's gotten sloppy. A +5 February would be our 5th warmest on record. How can someone predict that for a winter outlook? He has never done such Anomaly before. Same with the 5". Maybe he'll be right. I think such outlandish numbers from this range is kind of silly. It is almost defiant. He hasn't done too well on snow the last few winters. Hope he is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Even last winter wasn't that warm was it? Not Jan/Feb IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 I just copy/pasted. I doubt it's some grand plan to fool all of us. From his email? Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Even last winter wasn't that warm was it? It was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 He's gotten sloppy. A +5 February would be our 5th warmest on record. How can someone predict that for a winter outlook? He has never done such Anomaly before. Same with the 5". Maybe he'll be right. I think such outlandish numbers from this range is kind of silly. It is almost defiant. He hasn't done too well on snow the last few winters. Hope he is wrong. HHe basically issues the same forecast every year, and it really seems like he's just pulling this forecast out of his ass. How anyone can go out and forecast record conditions nearly six months in advance is beyond me! He offers no reasoning, no analog years, nothing. This forecast is as good as blizz22 saying "snowy winter coming sne more later"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.