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KA's 2012-13 Winter Outlook


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That's what Zwyts is looking for.

Weather53 used to share KA's forecast, but I don't believe he's posting here anymore. Maybe Ian can get it on their next weather photography mission.

WX53 posts here as Tenman Johnson. I think he said at some point he won't post KA's forecast ever again. Once KA missed a few calls and the mystique wore off and the criticism began, they took their football and went home.

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Enjoy!

5" total for DCA.

Dec:+1 to +2 in temps

Jan and Feb: +4 to +5

1) This 5" for DCA is 4" below 1968-9, which is the least snowiest of the analogs I'm using (see below).

-PDO DJF: 1911-2, 1951-2, 1963-4, 1968-9

21.8, 10.2, 33.6, 9.1

+PDO DJF: 1904-5, 1939-40, 1976-7

41.0, 25.3, 11.1

So, I'd think that DCA would more likely at least be closer to its 12" median..say the 9-11" range. Regardless, predicting snowfall is like throwing slightly loaded dice.

2) Of my nine anlogs, only 1951-2 was warmer than normal for DJF, combined. That winter was the only of my nine analogs that had both a -PDO and a +NAO for DJF. So, this is reasonable to me IFF DJF has both a -PDO and a +NAO.

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i'll take the under on temps

He's gotten sloppy. A +5 February would be our 5th warmest on record. How can someone predict that for a winter outlook? He has never done such Anomaly before. Same with the 5". Maybe he'll be right. I think such outlandish numbers from this range is kind of silly. It is almost defiant. He hasn't done too well on snow the last few winters. Hope he is wrong.

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He's gotten sloppy. A +5 February would be our 5th warmest on record. How can someone predict that for a winter outlook? He has never done such Anomaly before. Same with the 5". Maybe he'll be right. I think such outlandish numbers from this range is kind of silly. It is almost defiant. He hasn't done too well on snow the last few winters. Hope he is wrong.

H

He basically issues the same forecast every year, and it really seems like he's just pulling this forecast out of his ass. How anyone can go out and forecast record conditions nearly six months in advance is beyond me! He offers no reasoning, no analog years, nothing. This forecast is as good as blizz22 saying "snowy winter coming sne more later"!

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