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End of September/Early October banter/disco.


CoastalWx

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lol hey well the next week is certainly no torch and will end up below normal in boston.. This was signaled by the euro ensembles later last week too, so not surprised one bit.

Id think the next cool shot could enter the upper midwest after the first week of oct, and we'll see what happens from there..Definitely appears like an AN start to oct though.

Would the euro ensembles support the bolded sentence?

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Theres still a lot of spread in the ensembles for the first half of October. I like the overall mild start to the month (sans maybe the first couple days here in NE) and then perhaps a reload of the +PNA pattern which could bring a cold shot for the CONUS later on in the month....we'll see how it progresses, but I think the first half will be above average for a good chunk of the central and eastern CONUS.

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I know but it's just a curiosity that I have and I saw your post this morning that they are less ridgy. Would you say that they look closer to todays GEFS?

The euro does have a trough coming down towards the GL after 10/6, but the GEFS still seem more bullish with that. The 00z EC ensembles in general backed off a bit on the ridging in the east, but it easily may bring it back at 12z.

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Theres still a lot of spread in the ensembles for the first half of October. I like the overall mild start to the month (sans maybe the first couple days here in NE) and then perhaps a reload of the +PNA pattern which could bring a cold shot for the CONUS later on in the month....we'll see how it progresses, but I think the first half will be above average for a good chunk of the central and eastern CONUS.

Agree strongly with this Will.

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