dryslot Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 That might be a bad perception thing. These upgrades have been good overall. The GFS upgrade seemed to work and the Euro still leads the pack overall in height scores last I checked. The euro may have been too aggressive with warm air advection ont he 12z run yesterday, that's all. Well, More then one person has mentioned it has been consistently off with qpf, It did ok here in the storm this past weekend, It had 1.25" total and i received 1.30", I have not really dove into the models much because of summer, But am starting to look at them from here on in as we are heading into the fall/winter season, The NAM did not seem to benefit much by the last upgrade it had but i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 No real change from yesterday. The pattern still looks to relax a little heading past mid month, but still has a trough in the east verbatim. Sorry for all these weenie questions but do they still have at least a hint of ridging in western Canada and Alaska after 300 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Coming from the king of high dews? it's after 9/22, he has switched to cold and snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 The HRRR is also trying to bring rain into SNE as well. Not the best agreement this morning. Part of me thinks western MA and CT may get a little wet. Remains to be seen how well it can hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Hopefully it stays down there. Hvy hvy snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Sorry for all these weenie questions but do they still have at least a hint of ridging in western Canada and Alaska after 300 hours? A little, but it starts to flatten out. I think it's possible it may turn milder again after mid month, but I'm not confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Hopefully it stays down there. Hvy hvy snow next week lol, If you live above 3,000' maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 A little, but it starts to flatten out. I think it's possible it may turn milder again after mid month, but I'm not confident. I did hear that there may be another typhoon headed for Japan in about a week that may recurve. If it does then maybe another trough in the east around the 20th or so? Any thoughts Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Well, More then one person has mentioned it has been consistently off with qpf, It did ok here in the storm this past weekend, It had 1.25" total and i received 1.30", I have not really dove into the models much because of summer, But am starting to look at them from here on in as we are heading into the fall/winter season, The NAM did not seem to benefit much by the last upgrade it had but i could be wrong Sometimes like athletes....models can have a stretch where certain aspects struggle. And I can't speak for other areas of the country either. Maybe it misses on the rain, but it may resolve a stalled warm front better on Thursday. You just gotta know how to interpret it and make an educated guess. Besides, most only care if the euro has a 980 low SE of ACK at D4..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 I did hear that there may be another typhoon headed for Japan in about a week that may recurve. If it does then maybe another trough in the east around the 20th or so? Any thoughts Scott? Well that's tough to say. I suppose it could, but I think it would be hard to time that feature. At least for now, even if the pattern relaxes a bit...it's not reverting to a prolonged torch pattern. October is a time for change so expect some yo-yos in temps. I think even next week could have a brief warm up here with a low tracking NW of us, before another cold shot comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Sometimes like athletes....models can have a stretch where certain aspects struggle. And I can't speak for other areas of the country either. Maybe it misses on the rain, but it may resolve a stalled warm front better on Thursday. You just gotta know how to interpret it and make an educated guess. Besides, most only care if the euro has a 980 low SE of ACK at D4..lol. Well of course, That's where i want it come december, Or right over Phil................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 it's after 9/22, he has switched to cold and snow now. Kind of like when the air conditioning units in commercial buildings are switched from cooling to heating mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Sun poking out here...up to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 starting to look more and more like western areas will be wet this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 starting to look more and more like western areas will be wet this afternoon It's drying up..Maybe NW MAss sees a few light showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 the nam and sref mean show c/w pa and ny getting the heaviest rain and that is looking like a pretty big fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 nam: current radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 RAP is coming out even wetter for us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 some of the short term models get us very wet this afternoon.. on a side note I just saw the 6z gfs snow forecast map and it kind of made me laugh and shake my head It's drying up..Maybe NW MAss sees a few light showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 It's drying up..Maybe W. Chesterfield sees a few inches of snow. Epic winter at 2k incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 The stuff SW of NYC is certainly going to get the western 1/2 of CT and MA today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 sure is! So much for getting things done this afternoon raining pretty good now The stuff SW of NYC is certainly going to get the western 1/2 of CT and MA today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Yeah this rain is heading NE. Western areas always looked best, but I wonder how far east it goes. A compromise as usual is best. I think the 00z Euro may actually depict things better for western areas as compared to the 00z GFS. 12z GFS was dry yesterday for BOS, while the 12z Euro had rain moving in late this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 I may be eating my own words from this morning. GFS is doing horribly with this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 gfs and nam both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 radar looking better and better to the southwest we should see some pretty good rains this afternoon I may be eating my own words from this morning. GFS is doing horribly with this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 radar looking better and better to the southwest we should see some pretty good rains this afternoon Yeah for you guys I figured you have a shot, but this may get further east. Look at the 12z GFS...it doesn't have a clue. Oh yeah and congrats Powderfreak Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Yeah for you guys I figured you have a shot, but this may get further east. Look at the 12z GFS...it doesn't have a clue. Oh yeah and congrats Powderfreak Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Just got back from Ridgefield up around 600 ft, the maples this year are absolutely beautiful Back here at sea level, its overcast with a chance of chicken salad for lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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