Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

End of September/Early October banter/disco.


CoastalWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

2006-2007's winter was in February...only (March was ok, too)

Yeah but dude you were a few cow farts from getting that storm track in Feb-Apr further off-shore...that whole pattern 100 miles east would rock SNE. Likewise, I get rainstorms if it's equally west.

I was living in Maine that year--I think it kicked off a little late but that we did very well when all was said and done..

Where the heck has Cold Miser gone?

Last I heard he was possible relocating to NY, but I haven't seen any posts from him since that announcement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's so early in the season, though, that some modification of cold anomalies as the first couple of masses come south of the Canadian border has to be assumed. Then passing those air masses over the balmy Great Lakes is going to moderate even further. We don't have a snow pack and the sun is still at least tepid in strength. These factors should limit how cool it gets. However, if the blend of the operational Euro and GFS' D5-10 were to play out a month from now? Look out!

The longer term teleconnector mean off the GFS cluster is doubling up the cold signal, converging a target into the OV. There is a tandem +PNA/-NAO(-EPO), during which time there is a -1.5 correction going on with the Arctic Oscillation as we pass deeper into October. None of which appears not to be challenged for duration. It appears these operational runs are really tapping into those background physics because there are no interfering forces in play. We even have recurving TCs in the western Pac Basin, if it were not enough, and now the MJO is strengthening in late Phase 7 (phase 6 first). My goodness - the color are exploding early too is getting just weird.

I mean I don't see how that can all transpire without synoptic snow taking place N of the 40th parallel by the middle of October. Though rare across a 50-year climate mean, sure, we have in recent years witnessed that when parametrics align it is not as hard to snow in October as we may think. It's just getting the frequency of those parameters aligning, which per an entirely different discussion, we seem to be in some odd intra-decadal positive anomaly. Who knows why.

Anyway, it's probably a good measure to see northern plains negative temperature anomalies then take a few successive re-enforcing cool shots to really convincingly press the colder continental air east (eventually) of the eastern Cordillera; but I don't see how that is avoidable given time, given all the above. It's going to be cooler than normal. Quick comment on the geopotential medium: While the absolute anomaly distributions may appear only moderate in scope, the spatial orientation and overall pervasive mass-field involvement in this pattern in the first two weeks of October is pretty f awesome people.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah the cases I'm referring to appear to be wrong. Going back to my example, a high of 67 normal high of 72 low of 42 and normal low of 49 means a mean of 54.5 and a normal mean of 60.5. That's -6 no matter how you slice it or round it. BOX shows the mean as 55 (correctly rounding up), and the normal mean as 60 (rounded down?) for a departure of -5. NCDC has it as -6.

Not saying that its true, but say that high of 67F was actually 67.4F and the low was actually 42.0F. That would give you a mean of 54.7F (or 55F as you stated). Now say the average was actually 71.5F(rounded to 72F) and 48.5 (rounded to 49F), for a mean of 60F even. However in computing the departures, they do NOT use rounded numbers. So now you have a daily mean of 54.7F, but a supposedly normal mean of 60.0F. Thus you get your departure of -5.3F which rounds down to -5F.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool but a decent day as expected. Dry weather, clouds, temps near 60. AWT.

Lovely ASOUT

9 15:56 N 5 8.00 Light Rain OVC010 59 56 90% NA NA 29.87 1011.5 29 14:56 N 6 6.00 Fog/Mist BKN008 OVC014 59 55 87% NA NA 29.88 1011.6 29 13:56 N 5 3.00 Fog/Mist OVC008 59 56 59 57 90% NA NA 29.88 1011.9 29 12:56 N 3 1.75 Fog/Mist OVC006 59 56 90% NA NA 29.90 1012.6 29 11:56 N 5 3.00 Fog/Mist OVC008 58 55 90% NA NA 29.91 1012.9 29 10:56 N 6 2.50 Fog/Mist OVC008 58 55 90% NA NA 29.91 1013.0 29 09:56 N 7 10.00 Overcast OVC005 58 55 90% NA NA 29.90 1012.6 29 08:56 N 10 5.00 Fog/Mist OVC005 57 55 93% NA NA 29.89 1012.3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Post the raw METARs please. I don't understand that.

Loved the troll post from you earlier! :snowman:

Regardless most of the state has been bone dry... there have been some patches of drizzle on the shoreline but for most of us AWT.

Lovely ASOUT

9 15:56 N 5 8.00 Light Rain OVC010 59 56 90% NA NA 29.87 1011.5 29 14:56 N 6 6.00 Fog/Mist BKN008 OVC014 59 55 87% NA NA 29.88 1011.6 29 13:56 N 5 3.00 Fog/Mist OVC008 59 56 59 57 90% NA NA 29.88 1011.9 29 12:56 N 3 1.75 Fog/Mist OVC006 59 56 90% NA NA 29.90 1012.6 29 11:56 N 5 3.00 Fog/Mist OVC008 58 55 90% NA NA 29.91 1012.9 29 10:56 N 6 2.50 Fog/Mist OVC008 58 55 90% NA NA 29.91 1013.0 29 09:56 N 7 10.00 Overcast OVC005 58 55 90% NA NA 29.90 1012.6 29 08:56 N 10 5.00 Fog/Mist OVC005 57 55 93% NA NA 29.89 1012.3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I never saw your forecast Ryan, what are you talking about?I heard on the radio and saw your competitors today, no mention of the crappy day down here.

Lovely day for our Relay of Life event, the drizzle made it awesome at 56 degrees

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGON.html

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KWST.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I never saw your forecast Ryan, what are you talking about?I heard on the radio and saw your competitors today, no mention of the crappy day down here.

Lovely day for our Relay of Life event, the drizzle made it awesome at 56 degrees

http://w1.weather.go...story/KGON.html

http://w1.weather.go...story/KWST.html

You've been very moody for the last month. Hope everything is all right with you... feel like you've had stuff on your mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not saying that its true, but say that high of 67F was actually 67.4F and the low was actually 42.0F. That would give you a mean of 54.7F (or 55F as you stated). Now say the average was actually 71.5F(rounded to 72F) and 48.5 (rounded to 49F), for a mean of 60F even. However in computing the departures, they do NOT use rounded numbers. So now you have a daily mean of 54.7F, but a supposedly normal mean of 60.0F. Thus you get your departure of -5.3F which rounds down to -5F.

ASOS and climate stations do not report tenths of degrees. That -5 is officially a -6, or will be in a couple of months when the September data is finalized. This happens a few times a year for whatever reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ASOS and climate stations do not report tenths of degrees. That -5 is officially a -6, or will be in a couple of months when the September data is finalized. This happens a few times a year for whatever reason.

Yes they do. Their 1-minute data is down to the 0.1F resolution. Now it still may be changed to a -6F departure as you said, as now that I think about it, the ASOS might round the averaged 5-minute to a whole number. But they do measure in the tenths of a degree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice

NOAK48 PAFC 291909 CCA

PNSAFC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

1100 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR ANCHORAGE...

THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SURROUNDING AREAS OBSERVED THE FIRST SNOWFALL

OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE

PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES AS OF 11AM AKDT SATURDAY:

UPPER DEARMOUN........................7.0 IN

BIRCH AND DEARMOUN....................6.5 IN

EAGLE RIVER (HILAND RD)...............5.3 IN

O'MALLEY AND HILLSIDE.................5.0 IN

BIRCH AND ABBOTT......................4.0 IN

67TH AND ELMORE.......................2.0 IN

PALMER................................0.5 IN

NWS OFFICE (SAND LAKE ROAD)...........0.2 IN

$$

CB/CC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice

NOAK48 PAFC 291909 CCA

PNSAFC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

1100 AM AKDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR ANCHORAGE...

THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SURROUNDING AREAS OBSERVED THE FIRST SNOWFALL

OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE

PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES AS OF 11AM AKDT SATURDAY:

UPPER DEARMOUN........................7.0 IN

BIRCH AND DEARMOUN....................6.5 IN

EAGLE RIVER (HILAND RD)...............5.3 IN

O'MALLEY AND HILLSIDE.................5.0 IN

BIRCH AND ABBOTT......................4.0 IN

67TH AND ELMORE.......................2.0 IN

PALMER................................0.5 IN

NWS OFFICE (SAND LAKE ROAD)...........0.2 IN

$$

CB/CC

Ya I think BI had some pics he had posted Last night from there in West Sub Forum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Crappy weekend continues, rain drizzle all day yesterday in SEct, rain drizzle again here today at home. At least it's football Sunday,.

Man that Stinks Ginx! Bone dry all day yesterday and we have sunshine this morning, hope things get better, but I thought you like that type of weather?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...