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End of September/Early October banter/disco.


CoastalWx

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The station at the wellfield at school is reading 50/45, feels a little chillier. Beautiful night...firepit weather. Too bad I don't have one at school. 48/45 at the station down the street from my house in Harwinton.

By the way, it looks like the highest that station gusted last week was 35 mph. Nearby station only gusted to 30...so Kevin I know you said my parents were on crack and everyone else nearby was gusting to 55 but two hilltop sites I found nearby only hit 35 max.

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47F can we get into the 30s before midnight? Probably not...

I was noticing that but's not a big issue for me as I go by 7A-7A. Temps are much further along this evening than they have been on the other cool nights we've had . Those nights I was in the 40s by 2145 or so and I'm already there. Union's about to hit the low 40s at 45°.

Today was such a nice day outside!

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Oh Man, This is great Long Term GFS viewing has begun.

AK block would be nice in OCT. Anything that can bring cold rain and possible Higher terrain snow. Just as long as we can still get a great Color wave with the foliage!

Don't anyone even look at the 18z GFS. it will spoil hopes from Denver to Connecticut and break lots of hearts in the end.

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Fall has come early this year, the valley behind my house. Perfect day

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Nice shot Ginx! Looks like you are starting to see some color there in the hollow.

My question....is fall really early this season or is it just average for this time of year and we've gotten too used to torch falls over the past few years? It feels really good though to have things progressing on a more normal schedule and not be 3 weeks late like we've done for the last several years. Places up here are actually hitting average dates of first frost and 32F, which is quite the change of pace from like the last five years it seems.

September is supposed to be a fall month but recently it's been a continuation of summer lol.

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I think it is a few days to a week behind around here

Behind? Interesting.

Tonight looks like SNE should get colder than up north or at least is on pace to.

Currently 48F with a pesky 3-5mph wind and some orographic cloud debris spilling over here down wind of Mansfield. BTV was thinking some spots may get near freezing but wind and/or occasional upslope cloudiness will prevent frost formation even if temps get to the low/mid 30s. But with this wind and occassional clouds I bet we stop around 40F tonight.

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Nice shot Ginx! Looks like you are starting to see some color there in the hollow.

My question....is fall really early this season or is it just average for this time of year and we've gotten too used to torch falls over the past few years? It feels really good though to have things progressing on a more normal schedule and not be 3 weeks late like we've done for the last several years. Places up here are actually hitting average dates of first frost and 32F, which is quite the change of pace from like the last five years it seems.

September is supposed to be a fall month but recently it's been a continuation of summer lol.

It looks like October to me in some places

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Nice shot Ginx! Looks like you are starting to see some color there in the hollow.

My question....is fall really early this season or is it just average for this time of year and we've gotten too used to torch falls over the past few years? It feels really good though to have things progressing on a more normal schedule and not be 3 weeks late like we've done for the last several years. Places up here are actually hitting average dates of first frost and 32F, which is quite the change of pace from like the last five years it seems.

September is supposed to be a fall month but recently it's been a continuation of summer lol.

Yea about time we reverted to normal. Seems all of nature is back on schedule, blue fish, bass runs back on time, leaves, acorns, early Midwest cold. Love it.

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Yea about time we reverted to normal. Seems all of nature is back on schedule, blue fish, bass runs back on time, leaves, acorns, early Midwest cold. Love it.

Yep agreed. Its nice to have a normal fall with chilly nights and sweet days in the 60s. Its much better than 80F through Oct 15 and green leaves on the trees for Halloween, lol.

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Behind? Interesting.

Tonight looks like SNE should get colder than up north or at least is on pace to.

Currently 48F with a pesky 3-5mph wind and some orographic cloud debris spilling over here down wind of Mansfield. BTV was thinking some spots may get near freezing but wind and/or occasional upslope cloudiness will prevent frost formation even if temps get to the low/mid 30s. But with this wind and occassional clouds I bet we stop around 40F tonight.

This year is definitely chillier than any year since 2009 this early on...and then '08 and '07 were also torches in the fall...those La Ninas have torched us in September.

The color is coming in pretty much on schedule for around here...usually peak is about Oct 10-15 in the hills here going by typical climo. We've had several autumns recently where the color was muted all fall because of warmth and leaves were late falling off.

The weather recently is very good for color coming out though...we've had a lot of dry and cool days which should continue for the next week or so.

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Down to 38 now here. I had 33 with frost one day last week. Maybe I can actually get a 2M 32F this time.

This year is definitely chillier than any year since 2009 this early on...and then '08 and '07 were also torches in the fall...those La Ninas have torched us in September.

The color is coming in pretty much on schedule for around here...usually peak is about Oct 10-15 in the hills here going by typical climo. We've had several autumns recently where the color was muted all fall because of warmth and leaves were late falling off.

The weather recently is very good for color coming out though...we've had a lot of dry and cool days which should continue for the next week or so.

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Canadian ensembles also look closer to the GEFS than Euro. I guess if I had to choose, I would go with something just a bit closer to the GEFS. It still may be above normal, but maybe not the torch the euro ensembles have. They haven't been perfect either. The GEFS are probably a bit overdone, but the MJO does seem to want to go towards p7 and p8 possibly. Maybe I'm totally wrong. We'll see. It's not really for a matter of above or below...it's a matter of who has the overall right pattern, because the H5 pattern is night and day between the GEFS and EC.

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Canadian ensembles also look closer to the GEFS than Euro. I guess if I had to choose, I would go with something just a bit closer to the GEFS. It still may be above normal, but maybe

not the torch the euro ensembles have. They

haven't been perfect either. The GEFS are

probably a bit overdone, but the MJO does

seem to want to go towards p7 and p8 possibly.

Maybe I'm totally wrong. We'll see. It's not really

for a matter of above or below...it's a matter of

who has the overall right pattern, because the

H5 pattern is night and day between the GEFS

and EC.

Would the mjo going into phase 7&8 would that lead to what the GEFS is saying?

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Very sad ending for the coconut palm.

I had a large, old black locust tree that got hit by a strike like that last year that practically split the tree in half and pulverized some of the wood. I found splinters over 100' away from the tree. As it was an old, ugly tree it was good riddance, especially since it didn't fall on anything except the driveway and lawn.

I watched it happen from the front porch about 25-30 feet away. I felt the heat on my face and the concussive boom of thunder for a split second and then smelled the ozone and burning wood afterwards. It was definitely the closest I've been to a C to G lightning strike. Neat stuff. :lightning:

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