End of September/Early October banter/disco.

[CT Rain]

Holy Sultan signal at BDR!

KBDR 281639Z 34011G23KT 1/4SM +RA FG FEW004 OVC012 17/16 A3004 RMK AO2 CIG 007 R29 SE P0185

KBDR 281621Z 02010KT 1/4SM +RA FG BKN006 OVC012 16/15 A3006 RMK AO2 P0084

KBDR 281614Z VRB04KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN006 OVC012 16/15 A3007 RMK AO2 P0046

KBDR 281607Z 36006KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT006 OVC012 16/15 A3006 RMK AO2 P0023

KBDR 281552Z 08014G26KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR OVC012 18/17 A3005 RMK AO2 PK WND 08026/1546 SLP175 P0061 T01830167

KBDR 281457Z 09018KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR OVC014 18/16 A3008 RMK AO2 P0003

KBDR 281452Z 10015KT 2SM RA BR OVC016 18/16 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP188 P0041 60041 T01780161 58013

[HM]

Yeah its still negative, but its definitely gotten less negative than it was. There's still a lot of warm water SW of the Aleutians which will need to cool if we are to get something that resembles a classic +PDO for the winter.

But given how quickly the area just S of the Aleutians and the GOA started changing recently...its definitely possible we could get up near neutral or slightly positive by the time winter is underway....hard to say though.

The -PDO overall has been really stubborn. Even the 2009-2010 winter which was a much stronger Nino never got super positive...just mildly plus.

There is still below normal anomalies off the West Coast toward the equator and the counter current looks pretty weak considering there is an El Niño trying to form. The western North Pacific also appears to be in full -PDO mode. I think if the El Niño can become strong enough to strength the counter current, weaken the cool northerly flow...all the while carving out the cool anomalies in the Aleutians...it may be able to get the PDO slightly positive.

[Damage In Tolland]

This has got to be one of the worst stories I've ever heard. Just heartbreaking.

Man kills masked teen, learns it's his son

[Typhoon Tip]

You guys think the -PDO is taking that much of a hit? I mean, sure, it will come up as we move toward winter but I question even neutral / slightly positive readings at this point. Remember that the PDO is defined from 20°N on up and a good bit of the the North Pacific looks like a classic -PDO EOF.

Yeah, no - I wasn't certain of that. I had heard somewhere the the PDO might be relaxing off it's negative bias, but then I just checked the hard numbers and meh:

2000    -2.00  -0.83   0.29   0.35  -0.05  -0.44  -0.66  -1.19  -1.24  -1.30  -0.53   0.52
2001	  .60    .29   0.45  -0.31  -0.30  -0.47  -1.31  -0.77  -1.37  -1.37  -1.26  -0.93
2002**   0.27  -0.64  -0.43  -0.32  -0.63  -0.35  -0.31   0.60   0.43   0.42   1.51   2.10 
2003**   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89   0.68   0.96   0.88   0.01   0.83   0.52   0.33
2004**   0.43   0.48   0.61   0.57   0.88   0.04   0.44   0.85   0.75  -0.11  -0.63  -0.17
2005**   0.44   0.81   1.36   1.03   1.86   1.17   0.66   0.25  -0.46  -1.32  -1.50   0.20
2006**   1.03   0.66   0.05   0.40   0.48   1.04   0.35  -0.65  -0.94  -0.05  -0.22   0.14
2007**   0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008**  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.87
2009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93

The other thing, the PDO is multiple decades and its residence shows up correlated in the atmosphere more or less depending on damping signals - you know this, but for the general reader. What dem dare long words mean is that if the ENSO underneath shows up neutral to modestly warm (which it appears headed that way...), and the EPO gets a reach-around party favor off the AO's own multi-decade negative oscillation (which it has entered), then the PDO's correlation on the pattern this cold season may get damped out/less observed.

I think of the PDO as a background assist. Like all other teleconnectors, air or sea, they are factorable on a much more conditional basis. For example, the MJO: Sometimes we get all lubed up and ready pump over a strongly modeled late phase 7 through 8 --.> 2, and push comes to shove the resulting pattern appeared less correlated to the longer term mean. It's simply a matter of "weather" opposing forces super-imposed, either constructively or deconstructively interfere. In the case of the PDO; that teleconnection is less useful when other factors are drilling an A-B Pac pattern across the Basin.

[Logan11]

The heavy rain is gone into NE now, but still socked in with fog and drizzle. 49 lovely degrees out there..... This wx makes you feel alive again after that oppressive Summer.

[N. OF PIKE]

thanks scott, figured it may take a while

love that CAD look on the temp. map

[CoastalWx]

I don't see why the -PDO can't weaken a little though. It would be a good thing...not only from an atmospheric standpoint in the NPAC, but it would also help to keep Nino as a relevant forcing mechanism in the tropical Pacific. My fear all along is a neutral ENSO with a strong -PDO signal. I think we would rather not risk that.I do think it will try to fall more into the weak category...even if only a little.

I suppose if there is one good thing, I think the atmosphere is starting to behave more Nino-like.

[Typhoon Tip]

This has got to be one of the worst stories I've ever heard. Just heartbreaking.

Man kills masked teen, learns it's his son

Without even reading that... it's like when you walk into your own home with scary Hollow's Eve mask on, and your Pitt Bull Spike proceeds to make short order of the situation -

Only this is a person doing the same thing?

Eh, I'd read on to find out but won't - those types of stories irk me too deeply and I can't forget. So I'll defer on this one.

[grinch1989]

Holy Sultan signal at BDR!

KBDR 281639Z 34011G23KT 1/4SM +RA FG FEW004 OVC012 17/16 A3004 RMK AO2 CIG 007 R29 SE P0185

KBDR 281621Z 02010KT 1/4SM +RA FG BKN006 OVC012 16/15 A3006 RMK AO2 P0084

KBDR 281614Z VRB04KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN006 OVC012 16/15 A3007 RMK AO2 P0046

KBDR 281607Z 36006KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT006 OVC012 16/15 A3006 RMK AO2 P0023

KBDR 281552Z 08014G26KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR OVC012 18/17 A3005 RMK AO2 PK WND 08026/1546 SLP175 P0061 T01830167

KBDR 281457Z 09018KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR OVC014 18/16 A3008 RMK AO2 P0003

KBDR 281452Z 10015KT 2SM RA BR OVC016 18/16 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP188 P0041 60041 T01780161 58013

My dad works in the lordship section of stratford and his parking lot is completely underwater at the moment...

[Damage In Tolland]

Without even reading that... it's like when you walk into your own home with scary Hollow's Eve mask on, and your Pitt Bull Spike proceeds to make short order of the situation -

Only this is a person doing the same thing?

Eh, I'd read on to find out but won't - those types of stories irk me too deeply and I can't forget. So I'll defer on this one.

In short..the guys sister lives next door to him..She called him in the middle of the night and said someone was trying to break in,,he grabs a gun ,, goes outside and sees a masked intruder with some type of weapon in his hand, apparently coming at him...He shoots the intruder..who it turns out was his 15 yr old son. The guy is a teacher there in New Fairfield, and I guess the kid was a really good kid. It's the worst story I think I've ever heard.

[ORH_wxman]

Ginx is already racing through the clouds with his cape on along the CT shoreline making dead aim toward BDR.

[HM]

There are certainly direct and indirect ways ENSO can alter the PDO. Clearly, the modeling suggests ENSO is going to attack the North Pacific circulation in the z-direction. The upcoming EPO pattern is classic for an El Niño October, in the correlations. It will be the first real sign that it is having an effect. The WPO dominated pattern with a weak warm tongue toward Alaskan from the +SST anomaly would have been obliterated if this pattern persisted into the start of winter.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

50F ra- Skies brightening a bit now. .70" so far.

[CT Rain]

Ginx is already racing through the clouds with his cape on along the CT shoreline making dead aim toward BDR.

I had to shut the blinds on my south facing windows. The glare from the spotlight he's shining on BDR is painful to the eyes.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ginx is already racing through the clouds with his cape on along the CT shoreline making dead aim toward BDR.

He's throwing out life jackets to anyone he sees. He's got plenty of bags..and plenty of sand..

HERE HE COMES TO SAVE THE DAY

[CoastalWx]

People stuck in traffic on I-95 hear a sonic boom and see a dark object race by. Never fear.....SOS is here.

[CT Rain]

People stuck in traffic on I-95 hear a sonic boom and see a dark object race by. Never fear.....SOS is here.

He has a giant straw and can suck the water straight from swollen rivers or from lakes ready to burst a dam.

[Typhoon Tip]

There are certainly direct and indirect ways ENSO can alter the PDO. Clearly, the modeling suggests ENSO is going to attack the North Pacific circulation in the z-direction. The upcoming EPO pattern is classic for an El Niño October, in the correlations. It will be the first real sign that it is having an effect. The WPO dominated pattern with a weak warm tongue toward Alaskan from the +SST anomaly would have been obliterated if this pattern persisted into the start of winter.

perhaps ... but my concern is that there could be some planetary -scaled coinkidinks going on here.

The reason I wonder this is because the ENSO warming is so weak, and we are so early in the gradient season that it's dubious to me whether any heat source/sink restoring has yet been touched off when that signal is so weak.

If it were more robust upon the summer descendancy, a more direct forcing in October is an easier assumption to make for me. We notice that the West Pac has a fairly robust TC recurvature routing going on - it has been noted that this oft portends the A-B phase of the North Pacific circulation do to terminating latent heat injection ...blah blah, causing the ridges and troughs to align and so forth. I often wonder though, if there's a progenitor A-B forcing that is propagating east out of Asia, first, and that perhaps that sucks TC up and out of the western Pac subtropics, and that then re-enforces (that would be a "constructive" interference if so...).

In any case, there is a lag-correlation that pops up in autumns into winters wrt to recurvers out thatta way, and we got them. That could see the -EPO or quasi +PNA in its own rites.

[moneypitmike]

65/62

light rain

2.12 inches of rain, very impressive 3 hours of rain.

Nice--quite a bit less here, .59" so far.

48/47

[CoastalWx]

He has a giant straw and can suck the water straight from swollen rivers or from lakes ready to burst a dam.

[Typhoon Tip]

This would have been a great warning level icing event 2 months from now - ha

[CoastalWx]

perhaps ... but my concern is that there could be some planetary -scaled coinkidinks going on here.

The reason I wonder this is because the ENSO warming is so weak, and we are so early in the gradient season that it's dubious to me whether any heat source/sink restoring has yet been touched off when that signal is so weak.

If it were more robust upon the summer descendancy, a more direct forcing in October is an easier assumption to make for me. We notice that the West Pac has a fairly robust TC recurvature routing going on - it has been noted that this oft portends the A-B phase of the North Pacific circulation do to terminating latent heat injection ...blah blah, causing the ridges and troughs to align and so forth. I often wonder though, if there's a progenitor A-B forcing that is propagating east out of Asia, first, and that perhaps that sucks TC up and out of the western Pac subtropics, and that then re-enforces (that would be a "constructive" interference if so...).

In any case, there is a lag-correlation that pops up in autumns into winters wrt to recurvers out thatta way, and we got them. That could see the -EPO or quasi +PNA in its own rites.

I remember back in late Spring 2010, the atmosphere was already starting to shuffle around to a more La-Nina like pattern even though ENSO was still in NIno mode. In a way, the ball was rolling already towards La Nina when some people actually thought Nino would hold on.

Perhaps the atmosphere is also trying to get the ball rolling with the current pattern we have now. OLR anomalies and Walker forcing as HM would say has been slowly shifting east with time. The tropics may actually be a product of the developing Nino itself?

[Typhoon Tip]

no wonder there's rotation in those cells...

TRENTON PTSUNNY 72 67 84 SW5 30.01F

MILLVILLE PTSUNNY 74 67 78 S7 30.03F

ATLANTIC CITY PTSUNNY 75 66 73 S8 30.03F

WRIGHTSTOWN PTSUNNY 75 67 75 SW9 29.99F

there must be some pig helicity along the warm front

[weatherwiz]

He has a giant straw and can suck the water straight from swollen rivers or from lakes ready to burst a dam.

What time do you think the rain lightens up here?

Have to go to work in a few hours and I might take the bus instead of walk.

[forkyfork]

it's in the 70s and sunny here. please give me a thunderstorm

[Typhoon Tip]

I remember back in late Spring 2010, the atmosphere was already starting to shuffle around to a more La-Nina like pattern even though ENSO was still in NIno mode. In a way, the ball was rolling already towards La Nina when some people actually thought Nino would hold on.

Perhaps the atmosphere is also trying to get the ball rolling with the current pattern we have now. OLR anomalies and Walker forcing as HM would say has been slowly shifting east with time. The tropics may actually be a product of the developing Nino itself?

I think so -

Sometimes I think the sea/air are integrated more than the current science knows, and that they really just kind of move together in such a way that one may at times seem to precede the other temporally, but they are both just wiggling fore and aft along the same curve.

But that's immensely hypothetical and probably unclear sounding. haha.

Personally, I have a coveted a private belief for a long, long time, that the NINO thermocline is entirely controlled by some kind of tidal sloshing originating in the middle latitudes. It's alike there some hidden sinusoidal-like curve of greater and lesser sea-surface stressing that goes on to effect the frequency of repulsive Kelvin Wave responses, and then those go onto processing changes in the ENSO construct over long periods of time (month and years). The emergent property of all that dynamics is the longer term oscillation in the ENSO. But the origin, I have always suspected, is actually in the main band of the westerlies, but is a transitive application.

[weatherwiz]

Interesting little echo over Long Island.

[weatherwiz]

It's completely pouring here...knew I should have just went into work earlier.

[Quincy]

Mesolow or some sort of other mesoscale feature showing a nice hook south of East Haven.

[ChrisM]

In short..the guys sister lives next door to him..She called him in the middle of the night and said someone was trying to break in,,he grabs a gun ,, goes outside and sees a masked intruder with some type of weapon in his hand, apparently coming at him...He shoots the intruder..who it turns out was his 15 yr old son. The guy is a teacher there in New Fairfield, and I guess the kid was a really good kid. It's the worst story I think I've ever heard.

Horrible just horrible