End of September/Early October banter/disco.

[Brian5671]

NYC getting hammered by heavy rain this hour

and more developing just north of NYC--some model had 2 inches for that/this area yesterday-canadian maybe? Looks to be spot on.

[HoarfrostHubb]

48.5F/48 0.36" at home

Awesome fall wx

[CoastalWx]

The rains across MA are definitely more from WAA aloft. Models had this depicted well. Hopefully the GFS is right with enhancing stuff tonight.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is NCEP's Oct-Nov-Dec seasonal outlook; I look forward to reading their forecast philosophy because this looks absurd for a weak warm ENSO and an alleviating PDO. Plus, the background polar field indices favoring negative should be factor-able - if they can't get their heads around this their usefulness is less to me

[CoastalWx]

I think this weak ENSO and strong -PDO is causing a little chaos in long range prospects.

[Brian5671]

SW CT rain special continues. down to 59/57 though

[weatherMA]

43 and rain here in Plymouth. Don't see us making the 52F predicted.

[CoastalWx]

Pattern going forward looks more -EPO ish for October standards. It may mean coldest air midwest with shots of cold moving into the east.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like the low is over W LI or LI sound....LGA has gone to a NW wind while ISP is still SSE and BDR is E.

[ORH_wxman]

Pattern going forward looks more -EPO ish for October standards. It may mean coldest air midwest with shots of cold moving into the east.

Plains are going to get pretty cold...we'll probably be on the fringe wiuth colder shots at times like we were in the final two weeks of this month.

We have to get through our mini-torch first in the latter part of next week.

[CoastalWx]

Plains are going to get pretty cold...we'll probably be on the fringe wiuth colder shots at times like we were in the final two weeks of this month.

We have to get through our mini-torch first in the latter part of next week.

Yeah it seems like we'll get a couple of good shots anyways.

[Quincy]

That cell on the North Shore is showing stronger signs of rotation now.

[Mr Torchey]

This is impressive

[Brian5671]

Been dumping for the better part of 2 hrs here--waxes and wanes, but it's moderate to heavy for the most part.

edit: thunder and lightning now.

[powderfreak]

This is one of those situations in winter where Kevin will be a 38F rain while its 29-30F and icing here.

LOL

Classic CAD right now with core of the cold in the NH and eastern VT, pouring down into northern ORH and the east slopes of the Berks. Check out the gradient in the ORH hills though... low/mid 40s in the northern section and then near 50 and lower 50s at the southern end.

And as usual, those spots in northern ORH county are colder than up here where we were just at 50F and now 48F with -RN. Then there's the Champlain Valley at mid 50s and warmer than a lot of SNE. SWFE climo with a very distinct difference between west of the mountains and east of them. But man that northern ORH county does CAD well with those temps nudging south.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL

Classic CAD right now with core of the cold in the NH and eastern VT, pouring down into northern ORH and the east slopes of the Berks. Check out the gradient in the ORH hills though... low/mid 40s in the northern section and then near 50 and lower 50s at the southern end.

And as usual, those spots in northern ORH county are colder than up here where we were just at 50F and now 48F with -RN. Then there's the Champlain Valley at mid 50s and warmer than a lot of SNE. SWFE climo with a very distinct difference between west of the mountains and east of them. But man that northern ORH county does CAD well with those temps nudging south.

Yeah those colder temps usually love to bank up against the spine of the hills here and about down to the city where there is often a dividing line, sometimes it even makes it down to Kevins area if the high is good. The gradient is slightly further north today as the CAD signal is weaker than it usually is in the winter time...esp with not a very tight thermal gradient. (I mean, Maine is warmer than most of the interior CNE area right now which is not typical for a CAD winter setup)

But despite the differences, its nice to see the first hints of CAD appearing again like we so often see in the winter.

[ChrisM]

nasty out there absolutely nasty

[ChrisM]

close to a major icing event for the Mt Washington summit...34 with sheet drizzle

[powderfreak]

Yeah those colder temps usually love to bank up against the spine of the hills here and about down to the city where there is often a dividing line, sometimes it even makes it down to Kevins area if the high is good. The gradient is slightly further north today as the CAD signal is weaker than it usually is in the winter time...esp with not a very tight thermal gradient. (I mean, Maine is warmer than most of the interior CNE area right now which is not typical for a CAD winter setup)

But despite the differences, its nice to see the first hints of CAD appearing again like we so often see in the winter.

Yeah I figured that was due to where the precipitation and associated cooling is... cause you can see how northern VT back across Pittsburg, NH and Rangley, ME are near 50F to lower 50s. But they had more time to warm up before clouds rolled in and its not raining so no dynamic cooling. In a true CAD spots like northern NH and ME in the mountains at 1,500ft would be frigid.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think this weak ENSO and strong -PDO is causing a little chaos in long range prospects.

I thought the PDO was collapsing some, though - certainly appears so on the SST "skin"; not sure what the thermocline looks like, but the anomalies products had recently shown a significant modification of the near Alaskan heat sink.

Also, NCEP's discussion heavily references the two factors being the cold pool near Alaska, and the trends of the Dynamical Models in why they are going pervasive and spatially warm. I argue that as risky logic though - I don't think they are right. The dynamical model "trends" have clearly been hammering the PNAP couplet since early to mid August - ridges come and go in the middle and extended ranges, but we end up instead with NW flow in Alberta. Not sure where they are getting that -

Eh, they'll probably be right one way or the other, despite veracious counter-point arguments. In their defense, they do disclaim that the PNA and NAO are less dependable at seasonal time scales - well so far, and interestingly enough, those indices look to thwart that dominating warm appeal.

We'll see - but personally it seems to me that the background GW/30-year mean that is showing warm climate flux is under way, is "hotly" considered most years when these are released in the current era.

Also, have to consider that we could be closer to normal and only "seem" colder than normal because of recent warm times. The math could easily belie the appeal.

[Damage In Tolland]

52.5 on the mtn here.

[ORH_wxman]

I thought the PDO was collapsing some, though - certainly appears so on the SST "skin"; not sure what the thermocline looks like, but the anomalies products had recently shown a significant modification of the near Alaskan heat sink.

Also, NCEP's discussion heavily references the two factors being the cold pool near Alaska, and the trends of the Dynamical Models in why they are going pervasive and spatially warm. I argue that as risky logic though - I don't think they are right. The dynamical model "trends" have clearly been hammering the PNAP couplet since early to mid August - ridges come and go in the middle and extended ranges, but we end up instead with NW flow in Alberta. Not sure where they are getting that -

Eh, they'll probably be right one way or the other, despite veracious counter-point arguments. In their defense, they do disclaim that the PNA and NAO are less dependable at seasonal time scales - well so far, and interestingly enough, those indices look to thwart that dominating warm appeal.

We'll see - but personally it seems to me that the background GW/30-year mean that is showing warm climate flux is under way, is "hotly" considered most years when these are released in the current era.

Also, have to consider that we could be closer to normal and only "seem" colder than normal because of recent warm times. The math could easily belie the appeal.

They torched a good part of the CONUS in their outlooks for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters. They had a huge blowtorch for their 2008-2009 prediction They seem to often go typical Nino or Nina climo (whatever the year is) with a lot of warmth on top of it. Ironically, the one year recently they backed off the warmth a little was last winter's outlook....oops, lol.

[Mr Torchey]

65/62

light rain

2.12 inches of rain, very impressive 3 hours of rain.

[CoastalWx]

Here comes the rain blossoming.

[Typhoon Tip]

There is sneaky convective signal Sunday afternoon.. This current sfc/lower trop reflect moves off and leaves the area in relative high saturated air, then that cold pool aloft comes rolling through. Could see a couple of bands of low-toppers eastern NY and CT/Western Mass pressing east through that afternoon.

[HM]

You guys think the -PDO is taking that much of a hit? I mean, sure, it will come up as we move toward winter but I question even neutral / slightly positive readings at this point. Remember that the PDO is defined from 20°N on up and a good bit of the the North Pacific looks like a classic -PDO EOF.

[CoastalWx]

You guys think the -PDO is taking that much of a hit? I mean, sure, it will come up as we move toward winter but I question even neutral / slightly positive readings at this point. Remember that the PDO is defined from 20°N on up and a good bit of the the North Pacific looks like a classic -PDO EOF.

I think it's going to need a lot of help. While the "skin" temp may take a hit, the anomalies are still there in the deeper waters. I'm pretty sure the overall PDO will be negative for at least part of the winter.

[N. OF PIKE]

coastalwx does the boston area look pretty rainy this eve as well, or out of here by 6-630, what you think sir?

[ORH_wxman]

You guys think the -PDO is taking that much of a hit? I mean, sure, it will come up as we move toward winter but I question even neutral / slightly positive readings at this point. Remember that the PDO is defined from 20°N on up and a good bit of the the North Pacific looks like a classic -PDO EOF.

Yeah its still negative, but its definitely gotten less negative than it was. There's still a lot of warm water SW of the Aleutians which will need to cool if we are to get something that resembles a classic +PDO for the winter.

But given how quickly the area just S of the Aleutians and the GOA started changing recently...its definitely possible we could get up near neutral or slightly positive by the time winter is underway....hard to say though.

The -PDO overall has been really stubborn. Even the 2009-2010 winter which was a much stronger Nino never got super positive...just mildly plus.

[CoastalWx]

coastalwx does the boston area look pretty rainy this eve as well, or out of here by 6-630, what you think sir?

I'd say a very good chance of rain...maybe even moderately so around 6-6:30pm.