CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Weeklies went to more of a -PNA week 4. Nice Aleutian ridge though. FWIW anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Weeklies went to more of a -PNA week 4. Nice Aleutian ridge though. FWIW anyways. Ding dong, the vortex is dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Ding dong, the vortex is dead? Week 3 had some lower heights near Ak, but didn't see the big deal with that. Week 4 verbatim would probably be mild here, but who knows how correct it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Nice pics, freak! Looks great in my 'hood, too. I tend to agree with The Rev wrt the grass cutting. I always changed the pattern with each mowing. Heard it was better and it also took some of the monotony out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Week 3 had some lower heights near Ak, but didn't see the big deal with that. Week 4 verbatim would probably be mild here, but who knows how correct it will be. Weeks 1&2 have the -EPO right? Also week 3 is the ridge still over Western Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Today's Euro weeklies are like night and day vs. those from just three days ago. Today's 10/1-7 and 10/8-14 are so different that it is mind-boggling! Today's basically have a strong -EPO for the first half of Oct. Come mid-Oct., the SST anom. maps in the N Pacific could very well show a sig. PDO rise from the already higher levels vs. last month if this verifies. The chance of getting a +PDO for DJF would only continue to increase if the -EPO pattern were to persist. Talk of an almost certain -PDO for DJF is very premature imo. Hey Larry, keep posting in the ne subforum....your thoughts are much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Weeks 1&2 have the -EPO right? Also week 3 is the ridge still over Western Canada? Week 3 had weak ridging over central canada and nrn US. Lower heights GOA down into CA. It still had remnant troughing over far eastern US. I really wouldn't read into week 3 and week 4 too much. Doesn't look like much more than some Fall shuffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 That's insane. Just mow it and call it a day. He is correct....do most people outside landscapers and lawn freaks do it? Prob not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 He is correct....do most people outside landscapers and lawn freaks do it? Prob not I know he's right, but it's more fun to joke with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I know he's right, but it's more fun to joke with him. How do you think Saturday will shape up? Just on and off showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 How do you think Saturday will shape up? Just on and off showers? In CT? Probably cloudy with maybe a sct shwr or two. It's not impossible ct valley sees a couple of breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 In CT? Probably cloudy with maybe a sct shwr or two. It's not impossible ct valley sees a couple of breaks. SWEET! Will be tailgating at the UCONN game...heading out at 7:00 AM. I don't mind the clouds...just don't want heat or heavy rain. A few years ago it was in the mid-80's...couldn't drink more than 7 beers...got way too dehydrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Nevermind...the Daily Climate Report is out...they made it to 65 today...which is what I forecasted Bombed on the minimum though I'm doing the same contest wiz (matt1979). BGM has been tough to forecast for...tomorrow's QPF verification should be interesting. Not to spam, but for anyone else interested...a friend of mine is trying to build a forecasting contest / social media site for meteorologists. the more the merrier! Would nice to see a few more americanwx folks participate. http://www.nationalforecaster.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 I'm doing the same contest wiz (matt1979). BGM has been tough to forecast for...tomorrow's QPF verification should be interesting. Not to spam, but for anyone else interested...a friend of mine is trying to build a forecasting contest / social media site for meteorologists. the more the merrier! Would nice to see a few more americanwx folks participate. http://www.nationalforecaster.com Yeah it's been quite tricky. Yesterday was a really tough forecast with the high temps. Cloud cover just really held temps back. MOS was way too high...even the GFS MAV/MEX was too high and so far for this week GFS MAV/MEX has been much more realistic as compared to the NAM MOS. I was shocked they got down to 48F last night...I thought the cloud cover would really help to keep temps up a bit but just around dawn the temps bottomed out quite a bit. I've really enjoyed doing this so far and would certainly recommend this to anyone. Figure this is a great way to start testing techniques on forecasting and such as well as closely paying attention to MOS data and gauging which model output does the best in certain situations. The precip forecast tomorrow is a tough one. I sort of went in the middle of the 18z GFS/NAM precip forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Yeah it's been quite tricky. Yesterday was a really tough forecast with the high temps. Cloud cover just really held temps back. MOS was way too high...even the GFS MAV/MEX was too high and so far for this week GFS MAV/MEX has been much more realistic as compared to the NAM MOS. I was shocked they got down to 48F last night...I thought the cloud cover would really help to keep temps up a bit but just around dawn the temps bottomed out quite a bit. I've really enjoyed doing this so far and would certainly recommend this to anyone. Figure this is a great way to start testing techniques on forecasting and such as well as closely paying attention to MOS data and gauging which model output does the best in certain situations. The precip forecast tomorrow is a tough one. I sort of went in the middle of the 18z GFS/NAM precip forecast. Last nights temp was a surprise. The only reason I didn't totally bust is I went against my gut which usually means fail for me. But I was way too warm with my forecasts the first two days so I shaved a couple degrees off what I really was thinking. Worked well for the low...but ended up being too cool for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Last nights temp was a surprise. The only reason I didn't totally bust is I went against my gut which usually means fail for me. But I was way too warm with my forecasts the first two days so I shaved a couple degrees off what I really was thinking. Worked well for the low...but ended up being too cool for the high. Besides the precip forecast tomorrow the high temperature could be interesting. Will also have to see how much they drop off tonight. Seems like the NAM has had a better handle on dewpoints so far, however, there are some juicer dewpoints not too far to the south. Hoping the temp can fall back several more degrees before the dewpoints start to creep up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Another night in the 30's, Becoming common here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Looks like there could be quite the contrast between the much warmer and much cooler weather towards the end of next week. Just below the boundary may see 70's while just north of it 50's/60's. Also, it will be interesting to see where that main vort tracks with the cold front towards the end of next week...should be quite the dynamic system, especially if we see a phase occur. Just ahead of the cold front the GFS has a pretty impressive warm sector too with mid 60's dews up the coast. Maybe one last convective shot before we go cooler than average! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 HOLY CRAP!!!!!! SEE TEXT for today!!!!! 2% TOR 5% WIND/HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 HOLY CRAP!!!!!! SEE TEXT for today!!!!! 2% TOR 5% WIND/HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 That slight risk over DC is one of the smallest I've ever seen. Looks like a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 47F and rain Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Looks like many areas sneak in a nice weekend now lol..All that worry for nothing..1/4-.50 of rain today and then a partly sunny weekend with above normal temps..while i get soaked in 40 and rain in Buffalo on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Nice pics, freak! Looks great in my 'hood, too. I tend to agree with The Rev wrt the grass cutting. I always changed the pattern with each mowing. Heard it was better and it also took some of the monotony out. 99.9% of people know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Looks like many areas sneak in a nice weekend now lol..All that worry for nothing..1/4-.50 of rain today and then a partly sunny weekend with above normal temps..while i get soaked in 40 and rain in Buffalo on Sunday LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 LOL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 A pretty raw day shaping up. 45/43, .10". Fall weather at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Rain over before noon south of pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 it's pretty much over here. Maybe something develops later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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