End of September/Early October banter/disco.

[dryslot]

lol

[trapperman]

lol

if you're loling at me I'll post a couple maps. 1st is a non-weenish one. They agree pretty closely though. No more giant amped up ridge into thte NW territories on the Euro carving out a huge west coast trough: GFS looks like it has for the last 3 runs.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=168&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092712!!/

Now for the complete weenie post:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=240&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092712!!/

That's pretty remarkable agreement, isn't it? That's all I'm sayin. Bash away.

[dendrite]

if you're loling at me I'll post a couple maps. 1st is a non-weenish one. They agree pretty closely though. No more giant amped up ridge into thte NW territories on the Euro carving out a huge west coast trough: GFS looks like it has for the last 3 runs.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=168&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092712!!/

Now for the complete weenie post:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=09&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=240&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092712!!/

That's pretty remarkable agreement, isn't it? That's all I'm sayin. Bash away.

I don't think he was lol'ing at you.

[dryslot]

if you're loling at me I'll post a couple maps. 1st is a non-weenish one. They agree pretty closely though. No more giant amped up ridge into thte NW territories on the Euro carving out a huge west coast trough: GFS looks like it has for the last 3 runs.

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012092712!!/

Now for the complete weenie post:

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012092712!!/

That's pretty remarkable agreement, isn't it? That's all I'm sayin. Bash away.

Actually your post fell in front of the mushroom one that i was lol'ing at, But thanks for the map comparison

[CoastalWx]

In other words it's caving a bit to the GFS.

Well I don't know if you can exactly say that, especially since the euro op only goes out to hr 240. GFS hr 384.

[CoastalWx]

It also may be a bit early to say way below in SNE for a week+ length of time. It's possible we may be close to the edge and oscillate between warm and colder weather. I could see that. That may even departures out.

[Ginx snewx]

Jan 1994 in October, overrunning cold rain, low level cold fetish fall fail

[ORH_wxman]

It also may be a bit early to say way below in SNE for a week+ length of time. It's possible we may be close to the edge and oscillate between warm and colder weather. I could see that. That may even departures out.

That certainly is representative of the uncertainty we have been portraying for that time frame in the first two weeks of October. We are pretty sure southern Canada becomes quite cold and likely the Northern plains...but how far east and south it can seep is the question.

If you look at the GEFS today, they show a +NAO now and very little N ATL ridge like the Euro ensembles showed...so in that case, they seem to be caving to the Euro....however, on the other hand, I think the Euro ensembles were trapping the low heighs too far SW in the western CONUS which is a known bias of the Euro suite. With less of the trough energy digging SW, it gives a better chance for the PNA to just overwhelm it by flying over the top of it and pinching off the weaker low anomaly in CA and the SW US....thus lessening its influence in the eastern US potential ridging.

[CoastalWx]

That certainly is representative of the uncertainty we have been portraying for that time frame in the first two weeks of October. We are pretty sure southern Canada becomes quite cold and likely the Northern plains...but how far east and south it can seep is the question.

If you look at the GEFS today, they show a +NAO now and very little N ATL ridge like the Euro ensembles showed...so in that case, they seem to be caving to the Euro....however, on the other hand, I think the Euro ensembles were trapping the low heighs too far SW in the western CONUS which is a known bias of the Euro suite. With less of the trough energy digging SW, it gives a better chance for the PNA to just overwhelm it by flying over the top of it and pinching off the weaker low anomaly in CA and the SW US....thus lessening its influence in the eastern US potential ridging.

Yeah both sort of correcting to each other which can happen many times. I think the GEFS and Canadian were at least correct in easing the heights in the east a bit. EC seemed a little high with those, probably thanks to the -PNA. Now we have good agreement of the area near AK and NW Canada. Even the 12z EC ensembles have a weak ridge into eastern Greenland. Sort of giving the PV a nudge in the side and helping the colder air move into srn Canada and the nrn tier of the US. I'd give a lot of money to see that pattern in the winter.

We are probably talking about this more than we should..it's just a nice change to see this pattern. Is that ok to talk about LL??

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah both sort of correcting to each other which can happen many times. I think the GEFS and Canadian were at least correct in easing the heights in the east a bit. EC seemed a little high with those, probably thanks to the -PNA. Now we have good agreement of the area near AK and NW Canada. Even the 12z EC ensembles have a weak ridge into eastern Greenland. Sort of giving the PV a nudge in the side and helping the colder air move into srn Canada and the nrn tier of the US. I'd give a lot of money to see that pattern in the winter.

We are probably talking about this more than we should..it's just a nice change to see this pattern. Is that ok to talk about LL??

Its just nice to talk about the long wave patterns again now that they are actually more meaningful in affecting our sensible wx. The summer wavelengths shorter and weaker flow make for muted teleconnection responses...the height field is now tighening up again and moving south so these larger scale patterns will have better correlation with the sensible wx in the CONUS.

Its interesting that the two model suites sort of went toward eachother. If we end up with a more N ATL ridge or even a slightly -NAO for the first two weeks, then the GEFS will probably have won the battle overall...but we'll have to wait and see. Still some time. Though again, its interesting to note now the GEFS have taken away the N ATL ridge.

[Brian5671]

No! Only torch talk please. On that note, got up to 75 here with the sun...

[Alpha5]

I could go for a solid SWFE to be honest, the euro map posted earlier certainly seems conducive to that type of event

[CoastalWx]

Its just nice to talk about the long wave patterns again now that they are actually more meaningful in affecting our sensible wx. The summer wavelengths shorter and weaker flow make for muted teleconnection responses...the height field is now tighening up again and moving south so these larger scale patterns will have better correlation with the sensible wx in the CONUS.

Its interesting that the two model suites sort of went toward eachother. If we end up with a more N ATL ridge or even a slightly -NAO for the first two weeks, then the GEFS will probably have won the battle overall...but we'll have to wait and see. Still some time. Though again, its interesting to note now the GEFS have taken away the N ATL ridge.

Pretty strong vortex just west of the Davis Straits. It could be something where we may see transient ridging into the east side of Greenland perhaps.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's get thru next weeks torch..After that we may move right into winter.

[trapperman]

Well I don't know if you can exactly say that, especially since the euro op only goes out to hr 240. GFS hr 384.

It's caving to the GFS out to 240, good enough for me. after that it's smoke funny weed and drink large quantities of malt liquor time.

[dryslot]

Even at 240 i would do some bong hits

[CoastalWx]

It's caving to the GFS out to 240, good enough for me. after that it's smoke funny weed and drink large quantities of malt liquor time.

Any op model at hr 240 is bong worthy. I don't care what model it is.

The ensembles don't have as crazy of a cold push. It may be because ensembles tend to smooth out extremes, but it does have the cold idea and is pretty chilly looking overall.

Edit: the EC ensembles aren't too far off from the op.

[Damage In Tolland]

Any op model at hr 240 is bong worthy. I don't care what model it is.

The ensembles don't have as crazy of a cold push. It may be because ensembles tend to smooth out extremes, but it does have the cold idea and is pretty chilly looking overall.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that some of interior SNE sees first flakes as we head twds mid month

[weatherwiz]

It's caving to the GFS out to 240, good enough for me. after that it's smoke funny weed and drink large quantities of malt liquor time.

[Ginx snewx]

It's not out of the realm of possibility that some of interior SNE sees first flakes as we head twds mid month

Que PF and Snowman, 76% of all first order stations see flakes in Oct NBD LOL

[ORH_wxman]

It's not out of the realm of possibility that some of interior SNE sees first flakes as we head twds mid month

Well 2009 saw snow on Oct 15-16 and Oct 18. Not impossible certainly, but we'd need to maintain a very cold pattern to see that happen. Its questionable whether we can do that.

We need like a -15 departure airmass to see snow in mid-October in the interior. That's quite potent.

[weatherwiz]

I bet we get a big snowstorm Saturday, January 12th/Sunday, January 13th. The Whale play back-to-back games in Hershey, PA that weekend and I'm going to Hershey for the weekend.

[CT Rain]

Que PF and Snowman, 76% of all first order stations see flakes in Oct NBD LOL

It snowed 2 days prior to the October snowstorm last year.

[Ginx snewx]

Any op model at hr 240 is bong worthy. I don't care what model it is.

The ensembles don't have as crazy of a cold push. It may be because ensembles tend to smooth out extremes, but it does have the cold idea and is pretty chilly looking overall.

Edit: the EC ensembles aren't too far off from the op.

Where did our warminista from EWR go?

[CT Rain]

I bet we get a big snowstorm Saturday, January 12th/Sunday, January 13th. The Whale play back-to-back games in Hershey, PA that weekend and I'm going to Hershey for the weekend.

You're going to Hershey, PA to watch a Whale game????

[Ginx snewx]

It snowed 2 days prior to the October snowstorm last year.

I thought about that today

[dryslot]

Well 2009 saw snow on Oct 15-16 and Oct 18. Not impossible certainly, but we'd need to maintain a very cold pattern to see that happen. Its questionable whether we can do that.

We need like a -15 departure airmass to see snow in mid-October in the interior. That's quite potent.

Some would say that's impossible on this record + roll..............lol

[CT Rain]

I thought about that today

Out of the valleys and CP flurries in October are sort of meh. They happen.

[Ginx snewx]

I am on the Vortex wagon.....eh

[Ginx snewx]

Out of the valleys and CP flurries in October are sort of meh. They happen.

You missed the exchange last night