CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 An interesting post from Phil in the Nadine thread and sort of hints at some of the stuff going on wrt the tropics in the west pac. Lots of wave breaking creating quite an amplified pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 An interesting post from Phil in the Nadine thread and sort of hints at some of the stuff going on wrt the tropics in the west pac. Lots of wave breaking creating quite an amplified pattern. Yeah, you've got 2 recurvers going on and the latent heat delivery into the westerlies should excite some -WPO response --> relaying eventually down stream. That said, there is some remarkable chill for early October in many recent runs of the GFS ...however more or less in the ensemble, but this doesn't actually appear even transitively related to those changes [potentials] in the west Pac. This cold loading is predominantly negative EPO related. In fact, the PNA (total domain) may actually be slightly negative while that is occurring - perhaps a split flow result, but either way, positive height anomalies in the far NE Pac teleconnectos to negative departures near Lake Superior and the operational GFS keeps biting really hard on fulfilling that destiny. We'll see ... The oper. Euro is a weak ally. If the west Pac sets the R guide in motion it would tend to come to rest on a +PNA out in time, both statistically and meteorological in reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yeah, you've got 2 recurvers going on and the latent heat delivery into the westerlies should excite some -WPO response --> relaying eventually down stream. That said, there is some remarkable chill for early October in many recent runs of the GFS ...however more or less in the ensemble, but this doesn't actually appear even transitively related to those changes [potentials] in the west Pac. This cold loading is predominantly negative EPO related. In fact, the PNA (total domain) may actually be slightly negative while that is occurring - perhaps a split flow result, but either way, positive height anomalies in the far NE Pac teleconnectos to negative departures near Lake Superior and the operational GFS keeps biting really hard on fulfilling that destiny. We'll see ... The oper. Euro is a weak ally. If the west Pac sets the R guide in motion it would tend to come to rest on a +PNA out in time, both statistically and meteorological in reasoning. Yeah there definitely is a split flow look. Interesting indeed. All ensembles do have cold air moving into the Plains and GL region. It's possible we oscillate back and forth here with warm and cold, but still...nice looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well this certainly isn't the BTE (best thread ever). This will cheer you up... take a look at this story that was on the Today Show this morning about a guy I went to high school with. He played for the Cubs and was hit in the head during his first plate appearance (first pitch too). He was seriously injured and there's been a new push to get him an official major league at bat. http://video.today.m.../today/49191941 He's a great guy and everyone is so excited that he gets a second chance. Wow that is just fantastic, will be watching. Thanks for the heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yeah there definitely is a split flow look. Interesting indeed. All ensembles do have cold air moving into the Plains and GL region. It's possible we oscillate back and forth here with warm and cold, but still...nice looking pattern. Should see some winter headlines for the Montana highlands. Possibly east through the Black Hills of the Dakotas with that up-slope look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 It seems like eons since we weren't torching in October. Welcome to el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 What a difference a year makes! It's so funny too because last year torched in the fall but included a HECS. This year it'll be cold in the fall but watch it won't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 It's so funny too because last year torched in the fall but included a HECS. This year it'll be cold in the fall but watch it won't snow. A HECS that got me a sloppy inch (not my wife talking...). No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 A HECS that got me a sloppy inch (not my wife talking...). No thank you. Hey I got nothing out of it either but it was still one of the coolest HECS ever. It just shows you can get a historic snowstorm in an otherwise torch pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Hey I got nothing out of it either but it was still one of the coolest HECS ever. It just shows you can get a historic snowstorm in an otherwise torch pattern. It was definitely lucky to get that...not just because it was October of course which is stating the obvious....but that pattern that set up for that was very transient....we just happened to catch the hail mary pass in that. But the drive to set up the hail mary attempt was that weak block forming in the Davis straight holding in a solid cold anomaly over NE for an extra couple days while the long wave trough got more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Should see some winter headlines for the Montana highlands. Possibly east through the Black Hills of the Dakotas with that up-slope look. Yeah I think so too. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Damn...12z GFS is probably snow for some of NNE in lala land...850s -6c? That 384hr panel is looking quite promising for NNE lol Nice ridging in the GOA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 LOL at the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Hope not, will make for a long bus ride home! Thought I saw around 60 with showers? 20 dudes driving up and we ate coming back Monday FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 LOL at the euro. Explain, can't see it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Damn...12z GFS is probably snow for some of NNE in lala land...850s -6c? That 384hr panel is looking quite promising for NNE lol Nice ridging in the GOA though. That's your negative EPO / AB phase of the north Pacific working to load the Canadian Shield. Somewhat unrelated, hey Will, it appears the sea ice might just register the first gains of the season over this last week - at least eyeballing the graphics illustrates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Mushroom Weenie sprouting in one of my flowerbeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I'd argue that it is probably good for the autumn, also, because of the apparent -EPO/rising PDO partial correlation. I'm holding your feet to the fire on this one. No more torches please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Explain, can't see it yet. Well it's weenie-ish to discuss an op prog after d7, but it's dam cold north of 40N in general. It almost brings in borderline mix precip into the Berkshires at d10. LOL. But the euro could easily have warmer temps in this area at 00z. Just shows you that some cold air will lurk close by in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well it's weenie-ish to discuss an op prog after d7, but it's dam cold north of 40N in general. It almost brings in borderline mix precip into the Berkshires at d10. LOL. But the euro could easily have warmer temps in this area at 00z. Just shows you that some cold air will lurk close by in Canada. Looks like Jan 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well it's weenie-ish to discuss an op prog after d7, but it's dam cold north of 40N in general. It almost brings in borderline mix precip into the Berkshires at d10. LOL. But the euro could easily have warmer temps in this area at 00z. Just shows you that some cold air will lurk close by in Canada. If this was 2 months later the cyclogenesis off the coast on Sunday Kevin would be crying for his mama as Will tracked a west trend to clip E Mass with mod snows while Tolland is sniffing cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 If this was 2 months later the cyclogenesis off the coast on Sunday Kevin would be crying for his mama as Will tracked a west trend to clip E Mass with mod snows while Tolland is sniffing cirrus. Hopefully he cries mama a few times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Look what the Euro is doing in the N ATL..it actually forms somewhat of a block near S Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Hey Scott - ZAP EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 300 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012 VALID 12Z SUN SEP 30 2012 - 12Z THU OCT 04 2012 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK AND UPSLOPE SNOW INDICATED FOR MONTANA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Look what the Euro is doing in the N ATL..it actually forms somewhat of a block near S Greenland. It's an interesting pattern. I know Fall can be chaotic, but ridges are folding over everything...troughs sliding under everything. Quite wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Classic -EPO /split This is pig icing pattern in December folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 LOL at the euro. I like the end of the run...... Surface is to warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I wish this were two months later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Mushroom Weenie sprouting in one of my flowerbeds Comments please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well it's weenie-ish to discuss an op prog after d7, but it's dam cold north of 40N in general. It almost brings in borderline mix precip into the Berkshires at d10. LOL. But the euro could easily have warmer temps in this area at 00z. Just shows you that some cold air will lurk close by in Canada. In other words it's caving a bit to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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