scoob40 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Get some sleep bro, relax its way way too short, feel better Tis gettin a little heated but the entertainment value does give it a bit of a redeeming quality especially in a boring day at the office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Got it all covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yeah the METs always say how QPF is the least accurate of all model guidance...also in the warm season it seems even worse due to convective elements. Models are more inaccurate in general during the warm season because of convection. Since the height gradient is further north and weaker than it is in the cold season, convection (which is already poorly forecast) can have a larger effect on the height field in the summer with a lack of westerlies to overcome it. In the cold season, the longer wavelengths and further south jet makes for an easier resolution on the models. Models have a distinct max in score in the winter and a minimum in the summer. Of course we don't really perceive it that way because in the summer, we couldn't care less if the model busted by 2-4C at 850mb (which happened a lot up here)...it was the difference between 90F and 96F at BOS. In the winter, that type of error would be absolutely glaring...esp during a precipitation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Models are more inaccurate in general during the warm season because of convection. Since the height gradient is further north and weaker than it is in the cold season, convection (which is already poorly forecast) can have a larger effect on the height field in the summer with a lack of westerlies to overcome it. In the cold season, the longer wavelengths and further south jet makes for an easier resolution on the models. Models have a distinct max in score in the winter and a minimum in the summer. Of course we don't really perceive it that way because in the summer, we couldn't care less if the model busted by 2-4C at 850mb (which happened a lot up here)...it was the difference between 90F and 96F at BOS. In the winter, that type of error would be absolutely glaring...esp during a precipitation event. Was discussing this somewhere earlier, Over the last couple of winter seasons anyway ( That is the time that most follow the model runs) it seems that its taking for us to get inside of the 2-3 day range to start to see more model consensous when you could almost take it being gospel at day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Of course we don't really perceive it that way because in the summer, we couldn't care less if the model busted by 2-4C at 850mb (which happened a lot up here)...it was the difference between 90F and 96F at BOS. In the winter, that type of error would be absolutely glaring...esp during a precipitation event. It is funny you mention that because it's so true...I didn't look at 850 temps all summer because it didn't really matter to me, but come December, the difference between -3C and +1C in a precip event is something we all hash out for 3-5 days leading up to an event. If a model busts like that it's absolutely huge in sensible weather. Likewise +20C or +16C really doesn't change much in our sensible weather in the summer. The models could've been botching things all summer long and no one would really notice, but in the winter if that H7 low is supposed to go over BOS but instead it's over CEF, we all go apesh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The term low confidence seems to crop up more and more. High resolution models are pretty bad summer and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well this certainly isn't the BTE (best thread ever). This will cheer you up... take a look at this story that was on the Today Show this morning about a guy I went to high school with. He played for the Cubs and was hit in the head during his first plate appearance (first pitch too). He was seriously injured and there's been a new push to get him an official major league at bat. http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/49191941 He's a great guy and everyone is so excited that he gets a second chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Watch for severe near the warm front tomorrow if the NAM is right. It's bringing >1000 j/kg of surface based CAPE to coastal CT, Long Island, NYC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 OP GFS definitely says into the freezer after about Oct 5-6. Its interesting what it is doing in that it initially tries to bury a piece of the trough to the SW, but it just keeping trying to build the PNA ridge over it and it eventually just pinches off a weak low in the SW and the bulk of the arctic air goes into central Canada and eventually the northern plains/lakes and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Watch for severe near the warm front tomorrow if the NAM is right. It's bringing >1000 j/kg of surface based CAPE to coastal CT, Long Island, NYC etc. I am glad you're on board. Scott and I were talking about this earlier and I see a new thread popped up in the NYC subforum. This setup reeks of weak tornado in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 OP GFS definitely says into the freezer after about Oct 5-6. Its interesting what it is doing in that it initially tries to bury a piece of the trough to the SW, but it just keeping trying to build the PNA ridge over it and it eventually just pinches off a weak low in the SW and the bulk of the arctic air goes into central Canada and eventually the northern plains/lakes and New England. Yeah models are showing a nice split flow at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I am glad you're on board. Scott and I were talking about this earlier and I see a new thread popped up in the NYC subforum. This setup reeks of weak tornado in the NYC area. It's an interesting influx of unstable here in combo with shear, down there. What a temp gradient though. Struggling for 50 in the Berkshires and maybe parts of Worcester county, while the muggies visit the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I am glad you're on board. Scott and I were talking about this earlier and I see a new thread popped up in the NYC subforum. This setup reeks of weak tornado in the NYC area. All will depend on storm mode/convective initiation and whether we can develop adequate surface instability. I did note with the last event the RUC soundings and the SPC mesoanalysis was routinely too unstable when compared to observed soundings. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I'll take my cold rain and dream of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 oooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh http://www.astronomynow.com/news/n1209/25comet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 OP GFS definitely says into the freezer after about Oct 5-6. Its interesting what it is doing in that it initially tries to bury a piece of the trough to the SW, but it just keeping trying to build the PNA ridge over it and it eventually just pinches off a weak low in the SW and the bulk of the arctic air goes into central Canada and eventually the northern plains/lakes and New England. Last several runs have had good consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 lol 12z Gfs, Snow here around the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 40 and rain in BUFFALO on Sunday..Looks like it..Maybe some wet flakes/graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 It's getting into that day 7 or so time frame where you could almost start to believe it is going to get cold, somewhere north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 oooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh http://www.astronomynow.com/news/n1209/25comet I can envision the mostly cloudy skies obstructing the view already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 It's getting into that day 7 or so time frame where you could almost start to believe it is going to get cold, somewhere north... At the very least, nrn Plains and probably Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 All will depend on storm mode/convective initiation and whether we can develop adequate surface instability. I did note with the last event the RUC soundings and the SPC mesoanalysis was routinely too unstable when compared to observed soundings. Something to keep in mind. I like the close proximity SLP / warm front and good theta-e tongue in response to this close-range low / positive frontogenesis. This system will be more balanced with storm relative shear and instability while the last event could have actually been a whole lot worse if the CAPE came to fruition. What could ruin tomorrow is if the LLJ and mid level wave(s) advance too quickly ahead of the warm sector leaving the two disjointed and likely hindering supercell growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Give me that GFS pattern all winter please. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Give me that GFS pattern all winter please. Thank you. I'd argue that it is probably good for the autumn, also, because of the apparent -EPO/rising PDO partial correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well this certainly isn't the BTE (best thread ever). This will cheer you up... take a look at this story that was on the Today Show this morning about a guy I went to high school with. He played for the Cubs and was hit in the head during his first plate appearance (first pitch too). He was seriously injured and there's been a new push to get him an official major league at bat. http://video.today.m.../today/49191941 He's a great guy and everyone is so excited that he gets a second chance. Great story! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 40 and rain in BUFFALO on Sunday..Looks like it..Maybe some wet flakes/graupel Hope not, will make for a long bus ride home! Thought I saw around 60 with showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 This is just F awesome ! hopefully we can set this pig up in December - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 At the very least, nrn Plains and probably Great Lakes. That would make sense that those areas would be the target areas this early on for cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 This is just F awesome ! hopefully we can set this pig up in December - A coastal extravaganza.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 What a difference a year makes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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