powderfreak Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 could you tell the difference in sensible weather on your skin the 0.3 made this month? when is it going to get cold, seriously...........when are we going to get sustained well below normal weather, do you see anything in the future that points to it, anything at all......or are we in a new climate pattern? Can you really tell the difference a +1F month has on your skin vs a normal month? I'm guessing it's no different than slightly below except that with a minus sign in front of it you can't proclaim the torch continues. I can't wait to continue hashing out every half a degree difference in departures all winter long...best winter ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 You really can't expect strong coastals in September. Most of our heavy rain episodes this time of year are due to stalled fronts with tropical moisture riding north with a weak wave forming. Even October is not really known for strong coastals. You need strong thermal gradients and sharp s/w disturbances to kick off cyclogenesis. Over the next 2 weeks, the pattern will amplify. It still might not be a wet pattern, but you'll see stronger storms develop. I remember the autumn of 1994. It was a weather hobbyist's dream. It meant nothing for the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Can you really tell the difference a +1F month has on your skin vs a normal month? I'm guessing it's no different than slightly below except that with a minus sign in front of it you can't proclaim the torch continues. I can't wait to continue hashing out every half a degree difference in departures all winter long...best winter ever! There has been nothing at all about this summer that was a torch NOTHING, not a single thing, so don't put words in my mouth, in fact Will and I discussed how tolerable it was and comfortable. This 20 month long streak has nothing to do with torches it has to do with extremes.........MAJOR extremes. Hopefully that will be the last time I have to explain myself regarding this ongoing record. After all -0.3 is the new bitter, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I remember the autumn of 1994. It was a weather hobbyist's dream. It meant nothing for the following winter. What a let down after '92-'93 and '93-'94 up here. It was one of those reminders to be thankful for the good winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I've always noted that it's much easier to have a positive departure than a negative departure but I wouldn't say that they have gone by the wayside. They do happen, just not as often as positive departures and haven't happened that often in the past couple of years. The most noticeable recently has been the June-Sept time frame as well...we've been quite warm in those months the past 5 years or so with the exception of 2009. This is fairly common though for -PDO/+AMO couplet warm seasons in the CONUS...you generally get a torched east and south-central U.S. while the extreme N plains over to the PAC NW tend to be cooler. We saw a similar pattern in the late 40s and early 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yes. Since fairly early in September, the overall population feels as if autumn has arrived in terms of sensible wx. Most non wx folks agree this is the first time in several years there is a distinct change in seasons in September vs later. Am I still getting the middle finger for next weeks warmth? Looks on track to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Can you really tell the difference a +1F month has on your skin vs a normal month? I'm guessing it's no different than slightly below except that with a minus sign in front of it you can't proclaim the torch continues. I can't wait to continue hashing out every half a degree difference in departures all winter long...best winter ever! I guess imo, a -0.3 vs 0.5 to me is the difference between warmer nights, and nice comfortable cool nights. As we know, 0.5F above normal does not mean every day averages 0.5F above. Instead, it may signify some warm spells where it may have been warm and humid. I'm speaking for my area near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 There has been nothing at all about this summer that was a torch NOTHING, not a single thing, so don't put words in my mouth, in fact Will and I discussed how tolerable it was and comfortable. This 20 month long streak has nothing to do with torches it has to do with extremes.........MAJOR extremes. Hopefully that will be the last time I have to explain myself regarding this ongoing record. After all -0.3 is the new bitter, enjoy. Even a place like BTV is running an 18 month above normal streak I believe. There is no escape from the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 This month has felt like a big change not just because we aren't torching like every September since 2009 (and '07 and '08 also torched), but also because it started off well above normal and we have been below normal since about 9/10. We also had several days where minimum temperatures were below average, so that always makes people feel like the change is in the air. When you walk outside and its 40-45F several of these mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Even a place like BTV is running an 18 month above normal streak I believe. There is no escape from the torch! lol, if this was 18 or 20 months of below normal it would be popular to talk about, but alas its not, and I will continue to fight for the respect that this deserves and get bashed along the way, but will be the first one out in the snow and enjoying when it happens instead of looking at radars dreading its end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 could you tell the difference in sensible weather on your skin the 0.3 made this month? when is it going to get cold, seriously...........when are we going to get sustained well below normal weather, do you see anything in the future that points to it, anything at all......or are we in a new climate pattern? I can tell the difference on my skin with our -1.1 so far this month. The month is not over, but I don't expect it to go up or down much. Of course I don't live in South America, I mean far southern New England, like you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 lol, if this was 18 or 20 months of below normal it would be popular to talk about, but alas its not, and I will continue to fight for the respect that this deserves and get bashed along the way, but will be the first one out in the snow and enjoying when it happens instead of looking at radars dreading its end. Dude, in June and July 2009 people were complaining about the cold. Nobody wanted to talk much about it because of the "respect" it deserves. It's a natural psyche to talk about something that is different from the ongoing persistence. It eventually gets old and people look for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 lol, if this was 18 or 20 months of below normal it would be popular to talk about, but alas its not, and I will continue to fight for the respect that this deserves and get bashed along the way, but will be the first one out in the snow and enjoying when it happens instead of looking at radars dreading its end. Again, you have a very short memory. I know you were on eastern in 2009 and that cold stretch really wasn't talked about nearly as much as you say "it would be if we had a cold stretch". It was mentioned (it did break records for the coldest June/July on record)...but far far less than you mention the BDR torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Part of the issue, and not just in southern Fairfield County, is that it just doesn't get as cold at night anymore. I was looking at several stations yesterday and plotting a 5-year SMA of September lows, and it's been up up and away since 1965. In 1965, BDL averaged a September low of 31.8, and since then it has steadily climbed to 39.6. BDR it's 40.2 to 48.2. BOS 41.2 to 48.0. ORH 36.2 to 41.6. These aren't averages, just the extreme lows, so the cold air masses are either not as cold anymore or we have a problem with measuring accurately. Perhaps in 1965 all the climate sites were moved to airports who knows, but it can't be blamed on ASOS since that has only existed for ~15 years. I just thought this was an interesting stat because I thought to myself the other day that when I was a kid (granted I'm not that old) it just felt like the cold September mornings were a bit colder than they are now, and I was right. I'm not seeing where you are getting that from. I looked at temperatures at BDL back in the 60s and I don't see anything close to an average low 32°. If you're talking about the lowest min. in September, it's even off from there. Here's what Wunderground shows for temps at BDL in the first six and the last six years of the period that you're discussing: Year - Avg Sep. Min/Lowest Sept Temp 1965 - 54/32 1966 - 54/37 1967 - 51/39 1968 - 54/39 1969 - 54/37 1970 - 55/41 2006 - 52/37 2007 - 54/41 2008 - 55/40 2009 - 51/38 2010 - 56/38 2011 - 58/41 Maybe my math is wrong but just looking at this random sampling, isn't the average lowest minimum in the first 6 years 38° and the last 6 full Septembers 39°? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Agree-the cold mornings are what made the 2nd half of this month feel different. - Interesting maps above about the AMO and PDO. And wow-take out summer of 09 on those maps and we've really torched during the warm season going back to 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 BTW, it is no surprise why the 30s and 40s were dry in the plains as well. And guess what....it's similar to what we have now. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I can tell the difference on my skin with our -1.1 so far this month. The month is not over, but I don't expect it to go up or down much. Of course I don't live in South America, I mean far southern New England, like you do. It's not just southern New England. 18-month departures (March 2011-August 2012) along with number of above/below months... BTV +3.4 (17/1) BDR +3.3 (18/0) ORH +3.3 (15/3) BOS +3.1 (16/2) BDL +2.9 (15/1) CON +2.7 (15/3) CAR +2.6 (17/1) PWM +2.6 (14/4) PVD +2.3 (15/3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Dude, in June and July 2009 people were complaining about the cold. Nobody wanted to talk much about it because of the "respect" it deserves. It's a natural psyche to talk about something that is different from the ongoing persistence. It eventually gets old and people look for change. Again, you have a very short memory. I know you were on eastern in 2009 and that cold stretch really wasn't talked about nearly as much as you say "it would be if we had a cold stretch". It was mentioned (it did break records for the coldest June/July on record)...but far far less than you mention the BDR torch. Has nothing to do with what I am talking about this is 20 months not 2 or 3, this record is insanity and has trumped the old by 7 months now..........apples to oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 lol, if this was 18 or 20 months of below normal it would be popular to talk about, but alas its not, and I will continue to fight for the respect that this deserves and get bashed along the way, but will be the first one out in the snow and enjoying when it happens instead of looking at radars dreading its end. respect LOL couple thousand posts later I think you made your point, beat that horse just beat him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 It's not just southern New England. 18-month departures (March 2011-August 2012) along with number of above/below months... BTV +3.4 (17/1) BDR +3.3 (18/0) ORH +3.3 (15/3) BOS +3.1 (16/2) BDL +2.9 (15/1) CON +2.7 (15/3) CAR +2.6 (17/1) PWM +2.6 (14/4) PVD +2.3 (15/3) Please dont put forth facts, this has simply been a sw ct ordeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I'm not seeing where you are getting that from. I looked at temperatures at BDL back in the 60s and I don't see anything close to an average low 32°. If you're talking about the lowest min. in September, it's even off from there. Here's what Wunderground shows for temps at BDL in the first six and the last six years of the period that you're discussing: Year - Avg Sep. Min/Lowest Sept Temp 1965 - 54/32 1966 - 54/37 1967 - 51/39 1968 - 54/39 1969 - 54/37 1970 - 55/41 2006 - 52/37 2007 - 54/41 2008 - 55/40 2009 - 51/38 2010 - 56/38 2011 - 58/41 Maybe my math is wrong but just looking at this random sampling, isn't the average lowest minimum in the first 6 years 38° and the last 6 full Septembers 39°? it's a 5-yr trailing average. Avg the 2006-2010 lowest of the lows and you get 39.6 using your data. That was my methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 respect LOL couple thousand posts later I think you made your point, beat that horse just beat him just as you made yours last fall and winter that the pattern change was at hand, and that you could not wait to rub the cold in my face..........please XXX look in the mirror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 BTW, it is no surprise why the 30s and 40s were dry in the plains as well. And guess what....it's similar to what we have now. Shocking. Oh how I pray for a dust bowl feb oh how I pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Looks like another +9 day, time to throw on some shawls and pretend its cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 just as you made yours last fall and winter that the pattern change was at hand, and that you could not wait to rub the cold in my face..........please XXX look in the mirror my ratio was probably 1 to your 500, OC much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 facts are boring lets talk about fantasy cold and snow the gfs shows at 384!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 my ratio was probably 1 to your 500, OC much? really? ok, still waiting for the halloween pattern change. Why would a person who loves weather ever talk about whats ACTUALLY going on with the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Agree-the cold mornings are what made the 2nd half of this month feel different. - Interesting maps above about the AMO and PDO. And wow-take out summer of 09 on those maps and we've really torched during the warm season going back to 08 2009 was our one warm season where the PDO wasn't raging negative...started off mildly negative that summer and trended positive. North Atlantic was also colder that year. A rapidly strengthening El Nino definitely made it a different pattern than our La Ninas recently (and this year's pathetic El Nino getting bullied by the PDO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Has nothing to do with what I am talking about this is 20 months not 2 or 3, this record is insanity and has trumped the old by 7 months now..........apples to oranges. No it does have something to do with it. The pattern gets old...nobody talks about something that continues and continues because they are used to it and bored. We all understand it's been warm, why should we yell to the heavens about another +5 departure today? People like change in the weather, and this recent flip to cooler weather deserves its respect... especially since some of us thought it would be warmer than it has been. Tomorrow while Palm trees reach for the skies in BDR, Pete and MPM may struggle for 50...for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Its been 19 months in a row of above normal weather, how dare that *********** joe talk about warmth, what a ****ing prick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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