moneypitmike Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Well the low may move into the CT coast, so it's possible you could be low 60s if it comes close. But it looks like you stay near or below 60. Parts of GC and Monads may struggle for 50s. I love that kind of fall day. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I love that kind of fall day. Bring it on. Yeah could be quite the temp gradient. Wouldn't surprise me for part of the south coast to get briefly warm and muggy while you are struggling to barely get above 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 That guy mentions a script I could look at so maybe I will. The data is already compiled in a number of ways...I just need the time to upload it to an online database then the data could be pulled and made into graphs and tables and such. Maybe that script will help! In case anyone is interested, I've attached a graph of my temperature data. It's in celcius so some conversion maybe needed if you normally use fahrenheit. It has the highest and lowest max/mins along with average temps for any day for my location. nice Herb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Yeah could be quite the temp gradient. Wouldn't surprise me for part of the south coast to get briefly warm and muggy while you are struggling to barely get above 50. Feels kinda warm and muggy today--at least having gone for a walk it does. 55/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Its official +9 yesterday Back to +1.1 with another monster departure today. Snowman 21's post the other day regarding +10 compared to -10 departures was staggering, as many have said this month has been cold, the coldest day at BDR is a -4 while we just whip out the +9's and greater like its normal, if it ever gets truly cold again peeps are gonna go into shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Great seeing BOS back in positive territory as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Great seeing BOS back in positive territory as well! Not for long. Enjoy the palm trees down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Not for long. Enjoy the palm trees down there. yeah the -0.3 for the month will be impressive LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Agree...the days of big negative departures have gone by the wayside...some one posted that stat the other day which was interesting--many more +10 days than -10 days by a huge margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Agree...the days of big negative departures have gone by the wayside...some one posted that stat the other day which was interesting--many more +10 days than -10 days by a huge margin. It really is staggering 50/5 type stuff, no wonder this is the warmest year ever in recorded history in many locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 yeah the -0.3 for the month will be impressive LOL Considering I thought September would be warmer, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Considering I thought September would be warmer, I'll take it. could you tell the difference in sensible weather on your skin the 0.3 made this month? when is it going to get cold, seriously...........when are we going to get sustained well below normal weather, do you see anything in the future that points to it, anything at all......or are we in a new climate pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Just looked at the gfs what happened to the nor'easter? Ugh, I guess the winds might be out of the northeast maybe even south here, but can we please get a formidable cyclone to form up here, man this blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The colors are really starting to fly on campus, looking at some nice fruity pebbles out the window now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Just looked at the gfs what happened to the nor'easter? Ugh, I guess the winds might be out of the northeast maybe even south here, but can we please get a formidable cyclone to form up here, man this blows. it's been years...somehow you knew it would fall apart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Agree...the days of big negative departures have gone by the wayside...some one posted that stat the other day which was interesting--many more +10 days than -10 days by a huge margin. Part of the issue, and not just in southern Fairfield County, is that it just doesn't get as cold at night anymore. I was looking at several stations yesterday and plotting a 5-year SMA of September lows, and it's been up up and away since 1965. In 1965, BDL averaged a September low of 31.8, and since then it has steadily climbed to 39.6. BDR it's 40.2 to 48.2. BOS 41.2 to 48.0. ORH 36.2 to 41.6. These aren't averages, just the extreme lows, so the cold air masses are either not as cold anymore or we have a problem with measuring accurately. Perhaps in 1965 all the climate sites were moved to airports who knows, but it can't be blamed on ASOS since that has only existed for ~15 years. I just thought this was an interesting stat because I thought to myself the other day that when I was a kid (granted I'm not that old) it just felt like the cold September mornings were a bit colder than they are now, and I was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 it's been years...somehow you knew it would fall apart... Its boring, give me a good gale, not a southerly wind even, a good ne gale, and I hope Scott or any of the Mets take my questions seriously about the cold, because its a serious question, we have fun with this multi year torch but we are here because we love snow.......but the question is serious, when does the cold return? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Its boring, give me a good gale, not a southerly wind even, a good ne gale, and I hope Scott or any of the Mets take my questions seriously about the cold, because its a serious question, we have fun with this multi year torch but we are here because we love snow.......but the question is serious, when does the cold return? Probably around November, when it starts to get cold every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 I saw that. I guess maybe right near the low itself, we could see tstms. The NAM, and subsequently the SREF, are certainly suggestive of the potential from my land into S NY / S CT. The SLP / warm front, moisture advection, large-scale ascent, weak CAPE tongue and directional shear may be enough for a few isolated supercells. I am not sure yet if they can become surface-based. The best potential will be southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 What are people expecting? A raging gale? I don't think it looks any different. Probably 0.5"-1" for a lot of people. Some areas might get 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 The NAM, and subsequently the SREF, are certainly suggestive of the potential from my land into S NY / S CT. The SLP / warm front, moisture advection, large-scale ascent, weak CAPE tongue and directional shear may be enough for a few isolated supercells. I am not sure yet if they can become surface-based. The best potential will be southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Probably around November, when it starts to get cold every year smartazz:) Im talking below compared to average Christopher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The colors are really starting to fly on campus, looking at some nice fruity pebbles out the window now. Same thing here, I would estimate the color change at 30%. Last week at this point the landscape was mostly still green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 What are people expecting? A raging gale? I don't think it looks any different. Probably 0.5"-1" for a lot of people. Some areas might get 1-2". Just a nice looking cyclone on sat would be a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 The strong gradient along the warm front and the possibility of a sufficient LLJ caught my attention yesterday when the NAM and GFS started shifting north. I'd like to see a better alignment of ingredients on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Agree...the days of big negative departures have gone by the wayside...some one posted that stat the other day which was interesting--many more +10 days than -10 days by a huge margin. I've always noted that it's much easier to have a positive departure than a negative departure but I wouldn't say that they have gone by the wayside. They do happen, just not as often as positive departures and haven't happened that often in the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 Just a nice looking cyclone on sat would be a start They'll be some opportunities of both coastal lows and inside runners over the next two weeks with this pattern. Have thermal gradient, things will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 They'll be some opportunities of both coastal lows and inside runners over the next two weeks with this pattern. Have thermal gradient, things will happen. I hope so, I know its early but its been a while, a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 could you tell the difference in sensible weather on your skin the 0.3 made this month? when is it going to get cold, seriously...........when are we going to get sustained well below normal weather, do you see anything in the future that points to it, anything at all......or are we in a new climate pattern? Yes. Since fairly early in September, the overall population feels as if autumn has arrived in terms of sensible wx. Most non wx folks agree this is the first time in several years there is a distinct change in seasons in September vs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I hope so, I know its early but its been a while, a long while. You really can't expect strong coastals in September. Most of our heavy rain episodes this time of year are due to stalled fronts with tropical moisture riding north with a weak wave forming. Even October is not really known for strong coastals. You need strong thermal gradients and sharp s/w disturbances to kick off cyclogenesis. Over the next 2 weeks, the pattern will amplify. It still might not be a wet pattern, but you'll see stronger storms develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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