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End of September/Early October banter/disco.


CoastalWx

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I was sitting in my doctor's office this afternoon reading People magazine(yuck) amd there was a blurb about Taylor Swift and some dude chilling in Greenfield at Friendlys

She's dating some kid from Deerfield Academy. I guess they were hanging at Taylor's in Greenfield.

I really hope I get to see her... No, no I don't.

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Looks like we may torch for a couple days later next week but it seems like the cold shot may win out for the first half of the month. Ensembles are def colder. The OP run has some really impressive cold in Canada...we'll have to see how much of that materializes.

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Looks like we may torch for a couple days later next week but it seems like the cold shot may win out for the first half of the month. Ensembles are def colder. The OP run has some really impressive cold in Canada...we'll have to see how much of that materializes.

Have you noticed that ridge popping into the North Pole from NW Russia? SO maybe while we have a +NAO, the ridge in AK and the other ridge in NW Russia sort of push the PV south towards nrn Hudson Bay. While we may not see the coldest weather, at the very least..kind of nice to see that pattern.

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Have you noticed that ridge popping into the North Pole from NW Russia? SO maybe while we have a +NAO, the ridge in AK and the other ridge in NW Russia sort of push the PV south towards nrn Hudson Bay. While we may not see the coldest weather, at the very least..kind of nice to see that pattern.

With the models now in pretty good agreement for the -EPO to return pretty soon after only a pretty shortlived +EPO, the prospects for the PDO to fall back all that much during this +EPO period have dropped quite a bit imo. Now, it looks as if the PDO will get a chance at another boost in early Oct. I already believe (via educated estimating) that it has risen from the -1.93 of August to somewhere in the low -1's currently as there has been a sharp cooling change over the last week or so south of the Aleutians and a slight warming over the GOA. With the upcoming pattern, there could very well be a run toward getting above -1.00 by mid-Oct.

Any other opinions?

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Should be some good rains tomorrow into Saturday for a lot of areas.

I am surprised by the day 2 from SPC. I think I would have introduced 5% severe probs for southern coast of CT, Long Island into the coastal Mid Atlantic.

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With the models now in pretty good agreement for the -EPO to return pretty soon after only a pretty shortlived +EPO, the prospects for the PDO to fall back all that much during this +EPO period have dropped quite a bit imo. Now, it looks as if the PDO will get a chance at another boost in early Oct. I already believe (via educated estimating) that it has risen from the -1.93 of August to somewhere in the low -1's currently as there has been a sharp cooling change over the last week or so south of the Aleutians and a sligtht warming over the GOA. With the upcoming pattern, there could very well be a run toward getting above -1.00 by mid-Oct.

Any other opinions?

The only caveat I have with the pattern after next week is that it may hinge on whatever happens tropical wise, in the West Pac. If timing and other details are a little off...then the pattern could be somewhat different. Maybe it means the colder air is more nrn Plains instead of GL...etc. But, overall the lower heights are near the Aleutians. Some of that colder air extends into the GOA so the colder SST pocket there will probably hang around somewhat. I guess as far as SSTs go...I'm not a believer that they have a huge influence on the pattern...instead they may help facilitate it one way or another. For instance, the near surface may warm over the NE PAC, but that can easily get mixed out in the Fall, as this is the time where we see that happening. Also, you will probably need the PAC basin to change and not just one area. Normally cold waters that warm 2F simply do not have the forcing to create ridging or troughing via hydrostatic arguments. At least imho. It may help develop a certain pattern, but it's also a symbol of the overall atmospheric pattern. IOW, it may be the atmospheric pattern driving those SSTs and not the other way around. It's at this point where you may see some feedback happen from SSTs. I think the biggest thing to take out of this, is that it may help get El Nino going a little by weakening the -PDO and then perhaps we see other pieces of the atmospheric puzzle fall into place. We still have done fine with a -PDO here, but we also need to help of the physical forcing of a well places SST anomaly too.

I guess my next question is whether or not this is more central or west based.

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Copy this guys web site http://www.johnsnhweather.com/ you should have Wiz compile them for you and then post them

That guy mentions a script I could look at so maybe I will. The data is already compiled in a number of ways...I just need the time to upload it to an online database then the data could be pulled and made into graphs and tables and such. Maybe that script will help!

In case anyone is interested, I've attached a graph of my temperature data. It's in celcius so some conversion maybe needed if you normally use fahrenheit. It has the highest and lowest max/mins along with average temps for any day for my location.

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