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End of September/Early October banter/disco.


CoastalWx

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Have folks been hitting the bottle during hump day already?

No, just nice to sometimes get back to the way it used to be........I miss that, when people did not jump down others throats because of a view or an opinion, or because they might not know as much as someone else. Ribbing, but always knowing it was in jest, never serious or hurtful.

Those were good days.

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No, just nice to sometimes get back to the way it used to be........I miss that, when people did not jump down others throats because of a view or an opinion, or because they might not know as much as someone else. Ribbing, but always knowing it was in jest, never serious or hurtful.

Those were good days.

Ahhh... I only started in 2009, so I missed some of that dynamic. I like the ribbing stuff, but to an outsider (of that exchange) it seemed ouchie.

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Not sure that's how the normals work, but the numbers are not probabilistic and I think that's how many are reading into it. While only six stations in Connecticut have a normal October snowfall of at least an inch, 18 of 36 stations that were open at some point in the 1981-2010 normals period (not all get normals computed for them obviously) recorded at least one October of a trace or more of snow. Norfolk led the way with 19, followed by Bakersville with 7, Danbury with 5, Woodbury with 4, HFD and BDR with 3, Staffordville and Stamford with 2, and then a whole bunch of others with 1. Note some of these are skewed by period of record. Norfolk and Bakersville's raw average October snow is 0.7 and 0.2 inches respectively, so those work out pretty close to the normal values.

They smooth the data for averages, but I'm pretty sure if you get a trace once, then your average is a trace.....but I could be wrong. Maybe they want to see it twice.

But yeah, the numbers are definitely not probabilistic. Average October snowfall here is measurable...but the chance of a measurable October snow is something like 20%. (about 12 times in the past 60 years).

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They smooth the data for averages, but I'm pretty sure if you get a trace once, then your average is a trace.

Despite NCDC's documentation, I suspect you are correct. Even where they claim to use simple averages, as is the case with snowfall normals, you can tell they are doing some smoothing and filtering of the raw data. I can understand the manipulation as they attempt to capture the current climate's average state with relatively few data points (30 in the best case, 15 at worst).

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ORH has 23.3" of snow in October since 2000 (they had 0.0" in the 1990s)...so they could achieve a 1.0" October 30 year average with another few minor events....but they are tough to get.

CON got over 20" in that one storm...not sure what else they have gotten in this past decade though.

BUF's October normal is 0.9". They had 23.1" over that last decade of record...22.6" from the one October storm. Over the past 72 years, it appears BUF has received a trace or more in about 2/3rds of Octobers. Since it's a normal, and not an average, I wonder how much influence the outlier of October 2011 would have.

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>? Are you on the rag again? Perhaps its time to change your tampon...........grass is growing just fine, I will take lots of pics for you, actually looking at the webcams in vt the golf courses are lush and green.....I stop cutting here around the first week of November, want the last cut to be short so the lawn has resistance to winter burn.

Leaves?? I leave that to Scooters El Salvadorians, I dont do that ****, I contract it out and make money, I am planting now, and hopefully after some rain this weekend I can plant a lot. Make sure to take your Midol.

???

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Not sure that's how the normals work, but the numbers are not probabilistic and I think that's how many are reading into it. While only six stations in Connecticut have a normal October snowfall of at least a trace, 18 of 36 stations that were open at some point in the 1981-2010 normals period (not all get normals computed for them obviously) recorded at least one October of a trace or more of snow. Norfolk led the way with 19, followed by Bakersville with 7, Danbury with 5, Woodbury with 4, HFD and BDR with 3, Staffordville and Stamford with 2, and then a whole bunch of others with 1. Note some of these are skewed by period of record. Norfolk and Bakersville's raw average October snow is 0.7 and 0.2 inches respectively, so those work out pretty close to the normal values.

* edited for the bolded.

Staffordville's data only goes back to 2001 or 2002. FWIW, I've been keeping records since May 1985. 4 out of 27 Octobers had measurable snow. I need to go through the records to see the traces but I know there are at least 2 or 3 more there. The 27 year average is 0.6". Not including last year it is 0.2".

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ORH has 23.3" of snow in October since 2000 (they had 0.0" in the 1990s)...so they could achieve a 1.0" October 30 year average with another few minor events....but they are tough to get.

CON got over 20" in that one storm...not sure what else they have gotten in this past decade though.

Looks like they're barely ahead of ORH unless there's some missing data in the late 90s not included in the NOWdata. .

10/23/02 1.4"

10/27/11 0.8"

10/29-30/11 22.2"

24.4"

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Staffordville's data only goes back to 2001 or 2002. FWIW, I've been keeping records since May 1985. 4 out of 27 Octobers had measurable snow. I need to go through the records to see the traces but I know there are at least 2 or 3 more there. The 27 year average is 0.6". Not including last year it is 0.2".

Nice to have such extensive records like yours. Do you have your stats online?

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