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End of September/Early October banter/disco.


CoastalWx

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CON will probably avg 1" in October for the 91-20 normals.

ORH has 23.3" of snow in October since 2000 (they had 0.0" in the 1990s)...so they could achieve a 1.0" October 30 year average with another few minor events....but they are tough to get.

CON got over 20" in that one storm...not sure what else they have gotten in this past decade though.

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PF taken literally meaning a flake shower I guess but it's rare in the area I defined and although I was vague I really did not mean non accumulationing cat paws, rather a visible trace.

I figured you might have meant that instead of just snowflakes.

I personally think a trace is sort of dubious because in the records it could mean an actually trace of white on the ground, or catpaws like you said, at 37F for a few minutes.

All the while I'm arguing just for the sake of arguing cause that's what we do on here, lol, but I agree with you. I think there's accumulating Oct snows again this year outside of climo favored areas with the amount of cold that should be lurking in Canada.

Lastly, you say I'm the 1% but let's not forget that SNE has seen snow before this area a few times recently. Last year of course, then the Foxboro snow, and there was a time you got 2" in Ginxville and I rembember that was before I had seen snow whatever year that was.

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If 91% of NNE averages a trace and 76% of all of New England, I bet the probability is higher than you think Ginxy. We are only talking a trace...that's like HubbDave at 1000ft getting a 37F 3-minute 8sm snow shower. Really doesn't seem all that hard to do towards the end of October at night in a seasonably chilly pattern.

Even ORH near the Mass Pike latitude has a 50-50 shot at seeing flakes...it's just how I interpret the stats is that it's borderline likely (50%<) that NW interior spots at 800-1000ft+ see snowflakes in October.

Accumulating snow is far different as snowman showed.

Averaging a trace of snow for October is way different than expecting snow....if you got a trace one year out of 30, your average would be a trace. So the 76% is very deceptive...its not like 76% of the region should expect a trace.

But the interior above 1,000 feet is about 50/50 and perhaps 2 out 3 in the really high spots in the Berkshires.

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Averaging a trace of snow for October is way different than expecting snow....if you got a trace one year out of 30, your average would be a trace. So the 76% is very deceptive...its not like 76% of the region should expect a trace.

Ahhhhh so I lose....I thought that meant that they should get a trace in a climo normal season. IE expect a trace.

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If 91% of NNE averages a trace and 76% of all of New England, I bet the probability is higher than you think Ginxy. We are only talking a trace...that's like HubbDave at 1000ft getting a 37F 3-minute 8sm snow shower. Really doesn't seem all that hard to do towards the end of October at night in a seasonably chilly pattern.

Even ORH near the Mass Pike latitude has a 50-50 shot at seeing flakes...it's just how I interpret the stats is that it's borderline likely (50%<) that NW interior spots at 800-1000ft+ see snowflakes in October.

Accumulating snow is far different as snowman showed.

Going back to the traces in more detail...

CT 32% (6/19)

RI 17% (1/6)

MA 62% (32/52)

SNE 51% (39/77)

NH 89% (33/37)

VT 95% (35/37)

ME 90% (53/59)

NNE 91% (121/133)

TOTAL 76% (160/210)

It's not that crazy for 1/3rd of CT stations to expect at least a trace of snow in October when five of the six are located in the NW hills.

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Averaging a trace of snow for October is way different than expecting snow....if you got a trace one year out of 30, your average would be a trace. So the 76% is very deceptive...its not like 76% of the region should expect a trace.

But the interior above 1,000 feet is about 50/50 and perhaps 2 out 3 in the really high spots in the Berkshires.

I was confused about this when I first read it. Now I get it...

I wonder if after last October (23" or therabouts between the 2 storms), if my 30 year avg is over 1". Maybe even 2 or so (not that I know what I got before 2009)

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Going back to the traces in more detail...

CT 32% (6/19)

RI 17% (1/6)

MA 62% (32/52)

SNE 51% (39/77)

NH 89% (33/37)

VT 95% (35/37)

ME 90% (53/59)

NNE 91% (121/133)

TOTAL 76% (160/210)

It's not that crazy for 1/3rd of CT stations to expect at least a trace of snow in October when five of the six are located in the NW hills.

Like Will said 1 trace in 30 years still averages a trace

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LL needs something to do, grass not growing, leaves have not falling yet, dry grounds. Hope it snows.

>? Are you on the rag again? Perhaps its time to change your tampon...........grass is growing just fine, I will take lots of pics for you, actually looking at the webcams in vt the golf courses are lush and green.....I stop cutting here around the first week of November, want the last cut to be short so the lawn has resistance to winter burn.

Leaves?? I leave that to Scooters El Salvadorians, I dont do that ****, I contract it out and make money, I am planting now, and hopefully after some rain this weekend I can plant a lot. Make sure to take your Midol.

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>? Are you on the rag again? Perhaps its time to change your tampon...........grass is growing just fine, I will take lots of pics for you, actually looking at the webcams in vt the golf courses are lush and green.....I stop cutting here around the first week of November, want the last cut to be short so the lawn has resistance to winter burn.

Leaves?? I leave that to Scooters El Salvadorians, I dont do that ****, I contract it out and make money, I am planting now, and hopefully after some rain this weekend I can plant a lot. Make sure to take your Midol.

Stay classy bro, nice. You live in a bizarro SNE area the anti Pete. I understand your microclimate. It's cool.

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Stay classy bro, nice. You live in a bizarro SNE area the anti Pete. I understand your microclimate. It's cool.

Grass dormant in Moosup? LOL your mood swings lately are alarming, I am worried about you. I am playing golf at Mohegan on October 20th its my bro in laws bachelor party............should i expect dead brown grass??? Perhaps I should call him and tell him that grass does not grow in New England after Sept 1st:(

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No AC needed here

62F/59

A little muggy, but not bad at all

Friday looks great!

Friday looks awesome! I am really looking forward to a cold rainy weekend, its been so long I have forgotten what its like. I think we are making some chili and perhaps some soups........should be epic!

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Grass dormant in Moosup? LOL your mood swings lately are alarming, I am worried about you. I am playing golf at Mohegan on October 20th its my bro in laws bachelor party............should i expect dead brown grass??? Perhaps I should call him and tell him that grass does not grow in New England after Sept 1st:(

What? Nice try, attack mode eh? Gotcha. I have not mowed my grass in two weeks, the landscapers at work mowed last week, skipped this week, little growth. Dormancy is different than dead but you troll I understand.

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You're gonna miss this

You're gonna want this back

You're gonna wish these days hadn't gone by so fast

These Are Some Good Times

So take a good look around

You may not know it now

But you're gonna miss this

I miss nothing, I live in it every single day, I live what people read

4

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What? Nice try, attack mode eh? Gotcha. I have not mowed my grass in two weeks, the landscapers at work mowed last week, skipped this week, little growth. Dormancy is different than dead but you troll I understand.

LOL

This time of year is second only to spring for grass growth, perhaps Moosup is a special place. Perennial grasses thrive on cool nights and warm sunny days.........so spin your tune. If anything the dry conditions have slowed growth, check back in next week and I will be sure to take pics of Mohegan when I play next month.

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LOL

This time of year is second only to spring for grass growth, perhaps Moosup is a special place. Perennial grasses thrive on cool nights and warm sunny days.........so spin your tune. If anything the dry conditions have slowed growth, check back in next week and I will be sure to take pics of Mohegan when I play next month.

Pautipaug? Nice, good snow spot, nice hills there.

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How did I get brought into this?

Anyways, nevermind this October snow talk. What we really need is a November snow.

THIS, I was lucky enough to be in Fort Washington Pa northern suburb of philly back in 2010, snowed on Turkey Day, about a half inch, you guys up here got the shaft/

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Like Will said 1 trace in 30 years still averages a trace

Not sure that's how the normals work, but the numbers are not probabilistic and I think that's how many are reading into it. While only six stations in Connecticut have a normal October snowfall of at least a trace, 18 of 36 stations that were open at some point in the 1981-2010 normals period (not all get normals computed for them obviously) recorded at least one October of a trace or more of snow. Norfolk led the way with 19, followed by Bakersville with 7, Danbury with 5, Woodbury with 4, HFD and BDR with 3, Staffordville and Stamford with 2, and then a whole bunch of others with 1. Note some of these are skewed by period of record. Norfolk and Bakersville's raw average October snow is 0.7 and 0.2 inches respectively, so those work out pretty close to the normal values.

* edited for the bolded.

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