scoob40 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 signals to me indicate that the first week or so of October are our Indian Summer days then the bottom starts falling out, can see a falling AO/NAO combo with a rising PNA. And no Scoob not on a model. Would not surprise me in the least if snow flies inland in Oct this year again More than a feeling you say ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Actually make that ... 65% chance of not verifying - this is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 It seems most years feature flakes somewhere in interior New England...even if it's just snow showers or something. I actually feel a little skunked if I DON'T see any snowflakes by November 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 It seems most years feature flakes somewhere in interior New England...even if it's just snow showers or something. I actually feel a little skunked if I DON'T see any snowflakes by November 1. Well considering 76% of all New England stations (160 of 210 with published snow climatology) average at least a trace of snow in October, and 91% of northern New England stations, I'd say you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I think I'd put the odds of the Euro's operational solution's D7-10 verifying at about 97% against. Toss it - Ok then I will. No 90s for me anymore thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What does anyone think the percentage of years that the Berks see flakes in October? I gotta think a spot like Pete's or Peru sees at least a 36F snow shower most Octobers? The probabilities of snow though are likely skewed higher from the spine of the Berks up through the Greens mores than other geographic areas at similar elevations just based on the fact that this time of year requires a good cold surge on NW winds, which orographically favors those areas to achieve the cold + precipitation combo, rather than the areas where strong CAA is a drying flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Actually make that ... 65% chance of not verifying - this is interesting. irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Well considering 76% of all New England stations (160 of 210 with published snow climatology) average at least a trace of snow in October, and 91% of northern New England stations, I'd say you are right. You are one of the most underrated posters on here, lol. Awesome stats! I had no idea a "trace" of snow in Oct was that widespread in New England...76% of climo spots in New England averaging October snow is a lot more impressive than I'd ever imagine. So yeah, not a bold call to say flakes will fly in the interior in October. Now can you give the stats for 1" or greater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Snowman21 is amazing Between him, Will, and Jerry (incredible memory) every flake in New England history can be accounted for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What does anyone think the percentage of years that the Berks see flakes in October? I gotta think a spot like Pete's or Peru sees at least a 36F snow shower most Octobers? The probabilities of snow though are likely skewed higher from the spine of the Berks up through the Greens mores than other geographic areas at similar elevations just based on the fact that this time of year requires a good cold surge on NW winds, which orographically favors those areas to achieve the cold + precipitation combo, rather than the areas where strong CAA is a drying flow. ORH sees a trace or more of snow in 45% of Octobers since 1950. Berkshires above 1,000 feet would be higher and I imagine at 2,000 feet it would be something like 70% of the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 ORH sees a trace or more of snow in 45% of Octobers since 1950. Berkshires above 1,000 feet would be higher and I imagine at 2,000 feet it would be something like 70% of the years. How about LitchfieldLibations? 10%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I think I'd put the odds of the Euro's operational solution's D7-10 verifying at about 97% against. Toss it - The ensembles definitely don't agree with it. They ahve a pretty cold northern tier...esp N plains into the N lakes...we eventually get some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 You are one of the most underrated posters on here, lol. Awesome stats! I had no idea a "trace" of snow in Oct was that widespread in New England...76% of climo spots in New England averaging October snow is a lot more impressive than I'd ever imagine. So yeah, not a bold call to say flakes will fly in the interior in October. Now can you give the stats for 1" or greater? Number of stations with normal October snowfall of 1 inch or greater... CT 0% (0/19) RI 0% (0/6) MA 2% (1/52) SNE 1% (1/77) VT 22% (8/37) NH 14% (5/37) ME 20% (12/59) NNE 19% (25/133) TOTAL 12% (26/210) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 There's our downpours and storms forming into a line heading SE in Ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 The ensembles definitely don't agree with it. They ahve a pretty cold northern tier...esp N plains into the N lakes...we eventually get some of it. Nice..That is good to hear. We need to have a BN Roctober for a good shot at a cold, snowy winter in my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Nice..That is good to hear. We need to have a BN Roctober for a good shot at a cold, snowy winter in my eyes Yeah we sure needed that in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 You are one of the most underrated posters on here, lol. Awesome stats! I had no idea a "trace" of snow in Oct was that widespread in New England...76% of climo spots in New England averaging October snow is a lot more impressive than I'd ever imagine. So yeah, not a bold call to say flakes will fly in the interior in October. Now can you give the stats for 1" or greater? I forget this is not a SNE thread, well come to think of it we should title one that way as you NNE guys have one. When I say interior I mean places like Middle Ct to SNH non 2K spots, the climo for those spots is no where near 76%. Bet my life on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What Mass site has a normal Oct of 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 The ensembles definitely don't agree with it. They ahve a pretty cold northern tier...esp N plains into the N lakes...we eventually get some of it. The 18z GFS is spectacular for cool/cold weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 PF the 1% er, like comparing our Prius or Chevy trucks to his lamborghini Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What Mass site has a normal Oct of 1"? Lanesboro MA at 1236 ft has a normal October snowfall of 1.0 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 The 18z GFS is spectacular for cool/cold weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 CON will probably avg 1" in October for the 91-20 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 CON will probably avg 1" in October for the 91-20 normals. No doubt those 20-30 last year will bump a lot of stations up. Still amazed. Man that's a serious cold pool scheduled to build in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Lanesboro MA at 1236 ft has a normal October snowfall of 1.0 inches. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I forget this is not a SNE thread, well come to think of it we should title one that way as you NNE guys have one. When I say interior I mean places like Middle Ct to SNH non 2K spots, the climo for those spots is no where near 76%. Bet my life on it. If 91% of NNE averages a trace and 76% of all of New England, I bet the probability is higher than you think Ginxy. We are only talking a trace...that's like HubbDave at 1000ft getting a 37F 3-minute 8sm snow shower. Really doesn't seem all that hard to do towards the end of October at night in a seasonably chilly pattern. Even ORH near the Mass Pike latitude has a 50-50 shot at seeing flakes...it's just how I interpret the stats is that it's borderline likely (50%<) that NW interior spots at 800-1000ft+ see snowflakes in October. Accumulating snow is far different as snowman showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 PF taken literally meaning a flake shower I guess but it's rare in the area I defined and although I was vague I really did not mean non accumulationing cat paws, rather a visible trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 PF the 1% er, like comparing our Prius or Chevy trucks to his lamborghini LOL My post about flakes in the interior wasn't even about my backyard after snowman showed that it's like a 90% chance in NNE climo spots...I really do think that there are parts of your BOX forecast area where I'd sort of expect flakes in October. I bet from Jaffery back to MoneyMike and Pete down into Litchfield County sees flakes more Octobers than they don't. Then it tapers to a 30-50% chance from Blizz to HubbDave...and probably drops off a cliff to quite unlikely south and east of that high terrain and in the CT Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Notice been served. Just took out the snow shovels from the shed, put the garden hose away and killed the beautiful garden with chemicals. Its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Notice been served. Just took out the snow shovels from the shed, put the garden hose away and killed the beautiful garden with chemicals. Its coming. Pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.