Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Nice sunrise this AM with the pink hue. Spotty rain on the way to work. Weather looks rather ****ty through early next week. Maybe salvage a day tomorrow and maybe Sunday brightens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Thought you guys might find this cool. Death valley on saturday! Wish I was active but I'm still in labrum recovery mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 63 mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Sulan copy JB rule of typhoon recurving..means another trough in the East..Now Toronto Blizzard doesn't have to pepper Scooter with the questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Sulan copy JB rule of typhoon recurving..means another trough in the East..Now Toronto Blizzard doesn't have to pepper Scooter with the questions That was part of a reason why I thought models were having a tough time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 JB's winter forecast is out--slightly below normal temps for locations east of the Miss and Slightly above normal snows for the I-95 Club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Here's Toronto Blizzard's answer, he can smile and relax now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 There's an awful lot of uncertainty regard October temps IMHO. Theres going to be some pretty cold air to the north in central and southern Canada...its just a question of how amplified the western ridge will be which determines how far south and east the cold gets. The NAO looks positive, so that will be trying to create zonal flow in the east...the best way to counter that is a more amplified western ridge. But there's questions as to the orientation of the western ridge too...some of the Euro ensembles especially are trying to almost have an RNA type bend to the southwest in the trough. Though they seem to be slowly backing off this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Sulan copy JB rule of typhoon recurving..means another trough in the East..Now Toronto Blizzard doesn't have to pepper Scooter with the questions Lol easy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Sulan copy JB rule of typhoon recurving..means another trough in the East..Now Toronto Blizzard doesn't have to pepper Scooter with the questions actually Kev it came from a research paper but whatever its true, look at the friiggin cold, palatable difference from last Fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 There's an awful lot of uncertainty regard October temps IMHO. Theres going to be some pretty cold air to the north in central and southern Canada...its just a question of how amplified the western ridge will be which determines how far south and east the cold gets. The NAO looks positive, so that will be trying to create zonal flow in the east...the best way to counter that is a more amplified western ridge. But there's questions as to the orientation of the western ridge too...some of the Euro ensembles especially are trying to almost have an RNA type bend to the southwest in the trough. Though they seem to be slowly backing off this idea. Pretty large discrepancy after the 1st week. I have a lot of respect for the euro ensembles, but I wonder if they are too flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 That 5H digging into the Eastern lakes is going to make for a rainy crappy 3-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 actually Kev it came from a research paper but whatever its true, look at the friiggin cold, palatable difference from last Fall Looks quite awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 JB's winter forecast is out--slightly below normal temps for locations east of the Miss and Slightly above normal snows for the I-95 Club. So warm and dry for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 May have been mentioned, but temps this morning were running 20-25F warmer than 24 hours prior for most of CT along and SE of I-84. Groton and New Haven both had +25F departures at 7 a.m. today vs. 7 a.m. yesterday. ALSO, some spots were already at 70 degrees by 8 a.m., their normal high for the date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Lol easy now Just ask Blizz how many times he asked about how cold it'll be in Buffalo next weekend... you're safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Old fashion winter coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Old fashion winter coming up. So, Connecticut 2010-11 special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Just ask Blizz how many times he asked about how cold it'll be in Buffalo next weekend... you're safe. Heavy lake effect rains incoming next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 You can clearly see the difference between the Euro ensembles and GEFS at day 10...the GEFS have a pretty deep low anomaly south of the Aleutians which helps pump up the PNA ridge better....also look at the Atlantic...it has a N ATL ridge Now look at the Euro ensembles verifying at the same time No big low anomalies south of the Aleutians (just a weak one SW)...and look at the almost reverse PNA type kink in the western CONUS pattern...quite different from the GEFS. Finally, look at the raging +NAO with no N ATL ridge whatsoever...not even a hint of one. I'm sure the lack of a N ATL ridge, weaker western PNA ridge and lack of low heights S of the Aleutians are not mutually exclusive...they all tie into eachother to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 You can clearly see the difference between the Euro ensembles and GEFS at day 10...the GEFS have a pretty deep low anomaly south of the Aleutians which helps pump up the PNA ridge better....also look at the Atlantic...it has a N ATL ridge Now look at the Euro ensembles verifying at the same time No big low anomalies south of the Aleutians (just a weak one SW)...and look at the almost reverse PNA type kink in the western CONUS pattern...quite different from the GEFS. Finally, look at the raging +NAO with no N ATL ridge whatsoever...not even a hint of one. I'm sure the lack of a N ATL ridge, weaker western PNA ridge and lack of low heights S of the Aleutians are not mutually exclusive...they all tie into eachother to some extent. But wouldn't the recurvature of the typhoons in the WEST PAC cause the GEFS to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 But wouldn't the recurvature of the typhoons in the WEST PAC cause the GEFS to verify? Not necessarily. I've seen systems head into the North Pac and not really do much to the flow. They can amplify the pattern if they develop into a big Aleutian low though. so the whole thought process behind it has merit. As usual, both models may be too aggressive in their own solutions and it may be some sort of a compromise. Now whether one model suite wins outright remains to be seen. In looking at East Asia the GEFS have another tropical system that reinforces the Aleutian low at hr 240. Part of me thinks the GEFS may be correct to some extent, but we've all seen the GEFS do this and then come back closer to reality. So my guess is some sort of a possible compromise is in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I didn't realize how ridiculous the long range GFS is... a nice shot of -10C H85 into NNE in the next panel, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 What a foul day Friday is on both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS...some of the higher spots might struggle past 50F with steady rain and NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 What a foul day Friday is on both the 12z NAM and 12z GFS...some of the higher spots might struggle past 50F with steady rain and NE winds. Good time to take the under on MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 GFS says we might be socked in all weekend. The steadier rains on Friday, but Sat/Sun look like a weak NE flow with that ULL diving south from the lakes...that might be the type of day with low clouds/drizzle/mist...esp in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 GFS says we might be socked in all weekend. The steadier rains on Friday, but Sat/Sun look like a weak NE flow with that ULL diving south from the lakes...that might be the type of day with low clouds/drizzle/mist...esp in eastern areas. Woohoo. Spring in Sept. Hopefully Sunday is not a washout. It did not look it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 GFS op looks like Steve's low level cold fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 GFS op looks like Steve's low level cold fetish. Anyone get the feeling that mid to late Oct could be first snows again. Kevin et al will hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 In case y'all missed it. This was yesterday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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