CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 High pressure off Nova Scotia and low pressure to our south is generally a recipe for E to NE moist flow. The gradient is not that strong so perhaps far enough inland might salvage decent weather...but at the very least, most of eastern NE would probably be socked in. Maybe CT valley and places like that could get some breaks. Probably nasty from ORH hills on east. Have you looked at the H5 evolution? Pretty cool. There is this transient "block" if you will...that moves east over Canada as the ULL dives south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Maybe CT valley and places like that could get some breaks. Probably nasty from ORH hills on east. Have you looked at the H5 evolution? Pretty cool. There is this transient "block" if you will...that moves east over Canada as the ULL dives south. Yeah that ridge acts as a pseudo west-based NAO block near Davis straight and Hudson bay as it moves east. Definitely kind of cool looking. It totally cuts off the ULL from the flow so it just goes south, lol. That ULL could cause some real grief for a few days if it positions itself in the wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Ok, so what is the consensus for sne for at least the first half of October and a Wag at the entire month? Perhaps I am reading things incorrectly, looks above normal to me with interludes of cooler air. I don't understand why people are getting their panties in a bunch. After this storm over the weekend, it will probably turn mild for a few days at least. The question is more what happens after the first week. Models are not in agreement for a few reasons. My guess is some cooler air moves in after the 1st week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I don't understand why people are getting their panties in a bunch. After this storm over the weekend, it will probably turn mild for a few days at least. The question is more what happens after the first week. Models are not in agreement for a few reasons. My guess is some cooler air moves in after the 1st week. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Thanks. I don't see any changes in the ensembles over the last few days. I mean, maybe the GEFS backed off a little and the euro ensembles also backed off it's -PNA...but as long as you don't follow every op run swing...I think models haven't have significant deviations. Warm start to October followed by a cool down perhaps during the second week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I don't understand why people are getting their panties in a bunch. After this storm over the weekend, it will probably turn mild for a few days at least. The question is more what happens after the first week. Models are not in agreement for a few reasons. My guess is some cooler air moves in after the 1st week. We are kind of on the edge where we are anyway. The model disagreement on some key features is a bit annoying and makes it harder to tell what might happen around here. I think I'd be pretty confident in above average temps if I lived in the south central US and the southwest...thats about it. N plains is probably the most likely to cool off...but the lakes into New England are in the game as well. But if that PNA is just a bit more broken down like the Euro ensembles have tried to make it, then we could easily be warmer. I'd probably favor us slightly above average for the first two weeks...but if that ULL rots over us for a few days and the PNA reloads quickly, the shot of milder air could be too brief to make us positive for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 ok sounds like normal fall stuff in sne, some mild days some cool days, hopefully we have more rainy days. It is a nice change from last fall, which did not have an autumnal feel at all many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 We are kind of on the edge where we are anyway. The model disagreement on some key features is a bit annoying and makes it harder to tell what might happen around here. I think I'd be pretty confident in above average temps if I lived in the south central US and the southwest...thats about it. N plains is probably the most likely to cool off...but the lakes into New England are in the game as well. But if that PNA is just a bit more broken down like the Euro ensembles have tried to make it, then we could easily be warmer. I'd probably favor us slightly above average for the first two weeks...but if that ULL rots over us for a few days and the PNA reloads quickly, the shot of milder air could be too brief to make us positive for that period. That's what they had last week when I mentioned about seeing lower heights in the SE and more onshore flow across this area. They displayed that. I suppose if that's the case, then any + departures are more overnight low driven. And I agree, it's not a torch pattern so while it may warm up..it doesn't scream 80s or anything like that. But getting back to what we were saying this morning, I really don't care if we are a bit warm because of a transient warm plume. I just don't want to see the AK vortex hang around for a prolonged period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 ok sounds like normal fall stuff in sne, some mild days some cool days, hopefully we have more rainy days. It is a nice change from last fall, which did not have an autumnal feel at all many days. I wonder what the asian ladybug crop will be like in 2 weeks or so. It has been pretty mild the last few years. I remember the first year we lived here (1998) and we were just getting used to the house, when Columbus Day weekend we were invaded by thousands of them. Never been as bad as that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED BIFURCATED LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE GRT LKS RGN AMPLIFYING A S/SWLY FETCH OF SUB- TROPICAL FLOW THRU THE LOW-MID LVLS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHRTWV IMPULSES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BIFURCATED LOW PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH PREVAILING ISENTROPIC LIFT. REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXPECTING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE RGN /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES/. THE EXACT TIMING OF SHRTWV ENERGY IMPULSES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINS SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Pretty gusty this afternoon 65.8F for my high...decent 30 degree climb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Good discussion guys. I'm off for my 25 hour hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The last few days, many of the oaks around here have gone from that dark green "leathery" look to the more subtle brown/green that really signals fall to me. The sun shining through them really looks spectacular now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 We have lots of colour around here now - ahead of schedule, which is interesting. We were wondering if it might be the uber dry 40 days we had between later June and early August somewhat triggering an earlier foliage response, but speculation. Either way, there are large banks of healthy maples that are orange and red already up along the Mohawk Trail region of Massachusetts - last year at this time that was not the case. Also, the woolly bear caterpillars have a broad brown stripe, which means absolutely nothing - just fyi. The acorns did not produce, also irrelevant. Not only are the squirrels skinny but most of them were hit by traffic this year so no go there for determinism. The Famer's Almanac says that at least through early winter conditions will be much colder for the east then last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 We have lots of colour around here now - ahead of schedule, which is interesting. We were wondering if it might be the uber dry 40 days we had between later June and early August somewhat triggering an earlier foliage response, but speculation. Either way, there are large banks of healthy maples that are orange and red already up along the Mohawk Trail region of Massachusetts - last year at this time that was not the case. Also, the woolly bear caterpillars have a broad brown stripe, which means absolutely nothing - just fyi. The acorns did not produce, also irrelevant. Not only are the squirrels skinny but most of them were hit by traffic this year so no go there for determinism. The Famer's Almanac says that at least through early winter conditions will be much colder for the east then last year The switch to lots of sunny days with cool crisp nights since about 9/10 has been good for foliage. A dry summer is actually not good for foliage, although we had decent rain in SNE during the summer. The upcoming weekend storm is going to put a bit of a dent in things though. Hopefully the winds stay light so we don't lose a lot of leaves. That's usually the risk to the foliage in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Color has exploded this week. Amazing how fast things ripped out this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 this weather period is still boring climatologically speaking IMO. but the good news is that it is usually very comfortable. I was out in grandparents yard laying down some fertilizer for 2 hours and then spending the next 40 minutes blowing it off the patio and pool cover, but the experience was nice bc of the weather. around 70, sunny, and windy . top 10 type fall day IMO. Ill take anything 62--72 with sun and varying amounts of wind can make it perfect (less when cooler, more when milder IMO) then give me dry air and lows 35-45 (43 last nite in wakefield) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Think he's 100% wrong WXRISK.COM @WXRISKCOM OCT 2012 looking warm all of the CONUS east of the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Color has exploded this week. Amazing how fast things ripped out this week Big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Idk what Tip has for acorns but I shoveled piles today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Tons of acorns down here, just tons, small at my properties but tons of them. I have noticed the squirrels are thin, extremely thin what that has to do with anything who the heck knows lol. All I truly care about is good fall colors and cold and snow centered around the holidays, thats what makes me happy.........another winter like 2010 is gravy, but that might never happen again down here. It was special. High of 74 today under cobalt blue skies, hard to find any fault with this weather, classic COC september lately, warm sunny days and below normal nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 maples now showing some hints of yellow red and orange depending on species, obviously some nice color around the inland ponds and marshes which I love. I would say about 10% color here now, but it did indeed come on quickly, a slow march towards peak between columbus day and halloweenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Idk what Tip has for acorns but I shoveled piles today Almost none here... very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 maples now showing some hints of yellow red and orange depending on species, obviously some nice color around the inland ponds and marshes which I love. I would say about 10% color here now, but it did indeed come on quickly, a slow march towards peak between columbus day and halloweenie. 0% color here. Thought we'd be popping a little by now with all the cool weather, though I guess this isn't cool weather, but normal. Back country probably has a bit of color though, but down here along the shore it's still all green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 BOX gung ho about SOS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND. AFOREMENTIONED BIFURCATED LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE GRT LKS RGN AMPLIFYING A S/SWLY FETCH OF SUB- TROPICAL FLOW THRU THE LOW-MID LVLS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK SHRTWV IMPULSES TO ROTATE AROUND THE BIFURCATED LOW PROVIDING ENHANCED ASCENT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH PREVAILING ISENTROPIC LIFT. REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXPECTING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE RGN /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES/. THE EXACT TIMING OF SHRTWV ENERGY IMPULSES REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINS SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Unfortunately, none of the long range models have an October 4, 1987 redux.... and we all thought last year's storm was early, what about a month earlier?! Max amounts of 1-2 feet in the northern Berkshires/southern Greens/eastern Catskills. I was pretty little at the time though my folks said we lost power in Albany for 10 days with 6" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Unfortunately, none of the long range models have an October 4, 1987 redux.... and we all thought last year's storm was early, what about a month earlier?! Max amounts of 1-2 feet in the northern Berkshires/southern Greens/eastern Catskills. I was pretty little at the time though my folks said we lost power in Albany for 10 days with 6" of slop. Horrible winter followed, too, perhaps the 3rd worst behind 1994-1995. That was the year that spring came in on January 1st! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 I remember the snow on 10/8/88...it was the first snow I saw after moving back up here a couple months before. The winter then was horrible. But we got about half an inch to an inch of snow during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Horrible winter followed, too, perhaps the 3rd worst behind 1994-1995. That was the year that spring came in on January 1st! haha '87-'88 was a decent winter....you are thinking of '88-'89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Euro never really breaks down the +PNA...it tries to but then reloads quickly. The +NAO keeps a gradient though....its gonna be cold right up near the Canadian border and northern plains perhaps and getting into our region where the most uncertainty lies. No it doesn't - and it's along the lines of that conversation we were having last week regarding the successive roll outs tending leave a weakness ~90-80 W lons before reloading - regardless of the NAO that's been the case, though I don't know if it's necessarily directed by the PNA, either. It started during August, discernably, when the PNA is about at it's trashiest correlative values out of the calendar year. This is what I was talking about and why suggest going cooler than normal until such time as stronger opposing teleconnector materializes on the horizon. Not sure where any Met, agency or organization is getting a warmer than normal unrelenting October from - other than going with the 30 year butt-bang we've received off the GW background - but that's always in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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