H2Otown_WX Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Days and days of January sun for Toronto. I think the thermal field even made the shape of a frisbee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 72 sunny warm perfect autumn day!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The GFS has steadily backed off end of run cold for our area over the last 3 runs. Outside rain and possible northeast winds this weekend, the pattern is above normal, and possibly substantially above over the next 3 weeks. These wonderful September days are awesome, chilly nights where folks radiate well, and warm sunny days like today, that are perfect for any outside activity. These next 6 weeks are as good as it gets to get outside and enjoy all the cool/warm weather activities, enjoy it! 72 sunny cobalt blue skies with a delightful sw wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Official Indian Summer on the way for many peeps, should make leaf watching over the next few weeks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The GFS has steadily backed off end of run cold for our area over the last 3 runs. Outside rain and possible northeast winds this weekend, the pattern is above normal, and possibly substantially above over the next 3 weeks. These wonderful September days are awesome, chilly nights where folks radiate well, and warm sunny days like today, that are perfect for any outside activity. These next 6 weeks are as good as it gets to get outside and enjoy all the cool/warm weather activities, enjoy it! 72 sunny cobalt blue skies with a delightful sw wind The TORCH returns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The TORCH returns.... No torch, just solid above normal, the torch returns in November and hopefully goes away by the Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 No torch, just solid above normal, the torch returns in November and hopefully goes away by the Holidays! I believe u said torch for September also....what do u feel for oct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I believe u said torch for September also....what do u feel for oct? Look at the models, look at the ensembles listen to the pros...........thats my advice Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I believe u said torch for September also....what do u feel for oct? Yes early September was a torch, I am sure you remember.........nice cool down the last ten days, weather has been awesome don't you think? I have truly enjoyed it, and looking forward to some pleasant weather in October, what are your thoughts, I lay mine out on the line every month in the contest how about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 ORH at +0.8 going into today. Today is probably a bit below? -1 due to this morning? Couple of days at average then a few slightly below...chiseling away towards +0? Oct will be pretty warm for the first week or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 The GFS has steadily backed off end of run cold for our area over the last 3 runs. Outside rain and possible northeast winds this weekend, the pattern is above normal, and possibly substantially above over the next 3 weeks. These wonderful September days are awesome, chilly nights where folks radiate well, and warm sunny days like today, that are perfect for any outside activity. These next 6 weeks are as good as it gets to get outside and enjoy all the cool/warm weather activities, enjoy it! 72 sunny cobalt blue skies with a delightful sw wind Not sure I understand how/why this conclusion is derived (bold). The predominating correction tendency has been (-) in the NAO domain for a long while - why stop now? And, the PNA has had a negative bias at the agencies that compute that index during the current era. Compensating for those 2 factors is risky, but all else being unfair in the art of climate prediction I'd say in the least a good place to start is to correct for immediately known errors/biases. Doing so suggests that the NAO stays more neutral or beneath, and the PNA doesn't get as negative. That all points to keeping heights lower in S-SE Canada. We probably also should not be using the 300 hour range GFS beyond muse or entertainment, so saying "end of run" in the context of 'yeah, so no cool' is less than useful. For what it is worth my personal belief is that we have broken the 12-20 month, "above average at least excuse imaginable" type ordeal with the governing synoptics. There are environmental variables out there that have vectors toward cool. During this autumn - now through Dec 1, I believe that the predominating -NAO will become more of a player in directing our areas temperature anomaly distribution, just to name one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro op giving the middle finger to Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yes early September was a torch, I am sure you remember.........nice cool down the last ten days, weather has been awesome don't you think? I have truly enjoyed it, and looking forward to some pleasant weather in October, what are your thoughts, I lay mine out on the line every month in the contest how about you? Spin. Dramatic pattern change in the feel since around 9/9. Managed to cancel above normals for most of the area. And some or all of the big 4 will come in below in September. October is up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Spin. Dramatic pattern change in the feel since around 9/9. Managed to cancel above normals for most of the area. And some or all of the big 4 will come in below in September. October is up for grabs. Agree 100%.....think snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I wonder what the normal 850mb thermal field is or the 55 N band for the first 2 weeks of October - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Nice cold shot on the Euro days 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Looks like now Friday may be the rainy day and SNE salvages Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Looks like now Friday may be the rainy day and SNE salvages Saturday? Saturday has the look of a cold,cloudy, and drizzle type day. Probably sucks verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Saturday has the look of a cold,cloudy, and drizzle type day. Probably sucks verbatim. Right salvages means salvage outdoor plans..Drizzle along the coast..cloudy and chilly inland..while i head to KBUF and get ripped. WHat do you think about a wet Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Right salvages means salvage outdoor plans..Drizzle along the coast..cloudy and chilly inland..while i head to KBUF and get ripped. WHat do you think about a wet Friday? Friday looks wet right now. Could be a decent soaking. As far as Saturday goes...even inland..it could be lousy. I suppose if the low kicked out further east a couple of breaks could develop. Maybe some showers for BUF Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Spin. Dramatic pattern change in the feel since around 9/9. Managed to cancel above normals for most of the area. And some or all of the big 4 will come in below in September. October is up for grabs. Jerry the dramatic change in feel might yield something close to normal, with the possibility of an above normal October, and some thinking well above november. I guess if getting back to normal is the new below or if a -0.5 is well below than thats fair. Perhaps we have been so far above for so long, that anything below feels great, and renewed sense of possibilities for this coming winter. I dont know, and personally dont care, the weather will do what its going to do. I see nothing in the next 5 to 6 weeks that points to a long duration below normal regime. +1 is normal to me just as -1 is, I dont see anything extreme in the future, but I guess just getting back to normal this winter would be a huge victory to most, then again the winter before was so cold and snowy, it all evens out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro op giving the middle finger to Joe. So is everyone else lol. The Euro op has been cold day 9-10 for weeks now, I will believe it when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Friday looks wet right now. Could be a decent soaking. As far as Saturday goes...even inland..it could be lousy. I suppose if the low kicked out further east a couple of breaks could develop. Maybe some showers for BUF Sunday? Think I can sneak in a dry, semi sunny weekend in KBUF with temps near 60..Perfect for brews, brats, burgers and boobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro never really breaks down the +PNA...it tries to but then reloads quickly. The +NAO keeps a gradient though....its gonna be cold right up near the Canadian border and northern plains perhaps and getting into our region where the most uncertainty lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Think I can sneak in a dry, semi sunny weekend in KBUF with temps near 60..Perfect for brews, brats, burgers and boobs WWJWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 So is everyone else lol. The Euro op has been cold day 9-10 for weeks now, I will believe it when it happens. Really? I recall most of the runs in the last few days in that time range to be warm. Today's run is just a brief shot of cold anyways, but most of Canada goes well below normal for d7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Think I can sneak in a dry, semi sunny weekend in KBUF with temps near 60..Perfect for brews, brats, burgers and boobs Might be cooler than that Sunday if that ULL moves overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Saturday could be one of those days with WAA aloft and NE winds at the surface. Translation...maybe sheet drizzle/rain at times...especially at the coast. I hope not, but I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Saturday could be one of those days with WAA aloft and NE winds at the surface. Translation...maybe sheet drizzle/rain at times...especially at the coast. I hope not, but I could see that. High pressure off Nova Scotia and low pressure to our south is generally a recipe for E to NE moist flow. The gradient is not that strong so perhaps far enough inland might salvage decent weather...but at the very least, most of eastern NE would probably be socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Really? I recall most of the runs in the last few days in that time range to be warm. Today's run is just a brief shot of cold anyways, but most of Canada goes well below normal for d7-10. Ok, so what is the consensus for sne for at least the first half of October and a Wag at the entire month? Perhaps I am reading things incorrectly, looks above normal to me with interludes of cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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