ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro ensembles and GEFS still seem to be at odds with early October. Euro wants to dig the trough more west...it looks like in response to a pretty stout +NAO. GEFS want to dig the trough more central CONUS and into the east at times. The GEFS don't exactly have a -NAO, but they have a pretty strong N ATL ridge where the Euro ensembles don't. Both models do have lower heights SW of the Aleutians and high heights over AK...this should probably continue to work in eroding the negative PDO at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Hail Mary gate and low temp gate, mess up morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Mine was a question..not a statement Hmm, missed the ? in your post, my bad. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Hail Mary gate and low temp gate, mess up morning. No low temp gate... just didn't know where the number came from. I asked Joe but haven't heard back. It's really not a big deal other than we can all pretty much agree 28 degrees was an erroneous reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro ensembles and GEFS still seem to be at odds with early October. Euro wants to dig the trough more west...it looks like in response to a pretty stout +NAO. GEFS want to dig the trough more central CONUS and into the east at times. The GEFS don't exactly have a -NAO, but they have a pretty strong N ATL ridge where the Euro ensembles don't. Both models do have lower heights SW of the Aleutians and high heights over AK...this should probably continue to work in eroding the negative PDO at least. Yeah I like that pattern a lot in the north pacific, would seem to promote continued cooling/warming in the important spots to weaken the -PDO. For what its worth, the 6z gefs have backed off the troughing in the east in the 11-15 versus the 00z, and the mean looks closer to last nights euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro ensembles and GEFS still seem to be at odds with early October. Euro wants to dig the trough more west...it looks like in response to a pretty stout +NAO. GEFS want to dig the trough more central CONUS and into the east at times. The GEFS don't exactly have a -NAO, but they have a pretty strong N ATL ridge where the Euro ensembles don't. Both models do have lower heights SW of the Aleutians and high heights over AK...this should probably continue to work in eroding the negative PDO at least. Euro is slowly backing off from a stronger -PNA signal. Both models are mild for the start, but the euro was most bullish with west coast troughing. Might be a function of west pac tropical action possibly? As far as sensible weather is concerned, it doesn't mean much if I'm 65 or 75...I would rather see how the H5 pattern is and like you mentioned...it's got higher heights for now over AK which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Hail Mary gate and low temp gate, mess up morning. haha youre killing me today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro is slowly backing off from a stronger -PNA signal. Both models are mild for the start, but the euro was most bullish with west coast troughing. Might be a function of west pac tropical action possibly? As far as sensible weather is concerned, it doesn't mean much if I'm 65 or 75...I would rather see how the H5 pattern is and like you mentioned...it's got higher heights for now over AK which is good. Does this mean the mid 80s-90s for me won't happen next week that were on the Euro op last night? :axe: "Yes" would be a good answer. Sorry I shouldn't be posting here but I respect a lot of your guys knowledge and like to hear your opinions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Does this mean the mid 80s-90s for me won't happen next week that were on the Euro op last night? :axe: "Yes" would be a good answer. Sorry I shouldn't be posting here but I respect a lot of your guys knowledge and like to hear your opinions... Well at some point the cold will move into the PAC NW which may mean a heat plume for you. The beginning of October was going to be mild, it's more of a question of how long it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Euro is slowly backing off from a stronger -PNA signal. Both models are mild for the start, but the euro was most bullish with west coast troughing. Might be a function of west pac tropical action possibly? As far as sensible weather is concerned, it doesn't mean much if I'm 65 or 75...I would rather see how the H5 pattern is and like you mentioned...it's got higher heights for now over AK which is good. I like the N PAC pattern since it favors the weakening of the -PDO...and I think its only helpful that we see a +NAO pattern to start October. The correlation obviously isn't perfect, but the data we do have says that we probably want a +NAO in October to produce a -NAO in winter. However, 2009 and 2010 couldn't care less what the correlations said, lol. Good chance there was some solar stuff going on there with the extended minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Interesting that the NAEFS is still forecasting below normal temps for the east in the 8-14 day period while the west is warmer. Not saying that the euro ensembles are wrong but if they're backing away from strong troughing out west , perhaps they're starting to lean more toward the GEFS and CMC ensembles. Any comments? Will Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 had to do a job up in florence today and everything was frosted over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Interesting that the NAEFS is still forecasting below normal temps for the east in the 8-14 day period while the west is warmer. Not saying that the euro ensembles are wrong but if they're backing away from strong troughing out west , perhaps they're starting to lean more toward the GEFS and CMC ensembles. Any comments? Will Scott? They are showing a solidly negative NAO...I don't think I agree with that totally. GEFS show a N ATL ridge but they don't have well above average heights all the way up the length of Greenland like the NAEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I won't comment too much on that New London ob, but if it was an unshielded sensor the probe would just radiate like a perfect blackbody and could easily be 5F too cold. Is the station on WU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 They are showing a solidly negative NAO...I don't think I agree with that totally. GEFS show a N ATL ridge but they don't have well above average heights all the way up the length of Greenland like the NAEFS. Can you see how we may see that N ATL ridge that the GEFS is implying. Also based on the MJO , would the phases that it is forecasted to move into be favourable for eastern troughing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 They are showing a solidly negative NAO...I don't think I agree with that totally. GEFS show a N ATL ridge but they don't have well above average heights all the way up the length of Greenland like the NAEFS. I was just looking at the Canadian,EC,and GEFS and the GEFS and Canadian are also pretty strong with ridging out in western Canada after the 5th. Euro not so much. I noticed they also have a pretty strong low in the Aleutians while the EC is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I won't comment too much on that New London ob, but if it was an unshielded sensor the probe would just radiate like a perfect blackbody and could easily be 5F too cold. Is the station on WU? It's New Hartford just so you know, don't want you to go in the wrong direction and get confused. Maple Hollow section of New Hartford, CT. Even though you're STILL ducking my PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 I was just looking at the Canadian,EC,and GEFS and the GEFS and Canadian are also pretty strong with ridging out in western Canada after the 5th. Euro not so much. I noticed they also have a pretty strong low in the Aleutians while the EC is weaker. Do you think there should be a stronger aleutian low than what the EC indicates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Either way, it's keeping lower heights away from AK which is good. Heading into October..P6 into P7 if the MJO sort of imply colder air more towards the NW and nrn Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 It's New Hartford just so you know, don't want you to go in the wrong direction and get confused. Maple Hollow section of New Hartford, CT. Even though you're STILL ducking my PM Yeah...I meant New Hartford. It's tedious editing on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Do you think there should be a stronger aleutian low than what the EC indicates? I have no clue. Some of it may be tied to tropical activity which then becomes a big extra-tropical low. I think a few days ago, the EC was too bullish the west coast cooldown, but the GEFS might be aggressive on the opposite end of the spectrum. Fall can be a PITA to figure out as everything shifts around. I don't care about temps, I just want to see the H5 pattern. To me, that is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Either way, it's keeping lower heights away from AK which is good. Heading into October..P6 into P7 if the MJO sort of imply colder air more towards the NW and nrn Plains. Yeah I think even if the EC is too weak with the GOA ridging, we'll see the brunt of the colder air go into the high plains...I think the GEFS might be too far east with that stuff, but who knows. It will be an interesting situation to watch. This cutoff coming up at the end of the week is also pretty interesting. We might have like 3 days worth of easterly flow with low ceilings...welcome to April in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yeah I think even if the EC is too weak with the GOA ridging, we'll see the brunt of the colder air go into the high plains...I think the GEFS might be too far east with that stuff, but who knows. It will be an interesting situation to watch. This cutoff coming up at the end of the week is also pretty interesting. We might have like 3 days worth of easterly flow with low ceilings...welcome to April in September. Ha, I know it. But I won't complain about a nor'easter. Good to see coastals in the Fall....if nothing else..simply because it reminds me of winter. I don't know what models are right or wrong....probably both are displaying some incorrect solutions...but they all keep the GOA away for now. As you said earlier...it's going to try and perhaps increase the PDO a bit and maybe continue to help with ENSO down in the EPAC. At first look, it also seems to keep some troughing in Siberia which perhaps will help with snowpack there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Yeah...I meant New Hartford. It's tedious editing on my phone. Just wanted to make sure. I don't think there's a coop station there, and you've got a good point with the radiating like a perfect blackbody thing. If that ticked it down 4-5 degrees, a 33-32 reading would make a lot more sense. I still think it could have been closer to 30 just because of the nature of the area, but I'd definitely put it at 50/50 that they at least hit the freezing mark. Answer me back sometime will ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Wow dca, nyc, and bos all have a shot at finishing below avg for sept.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2012 Author Share Posted September 25, 2012 Just wanted to make sure. I don't think there's a coop station there, and you've got a good point with the radiating like a perfect blackbody thing. If that ticked it down 4-5 degrees, a 33-32 reading would make a lot more sense. I still think it could have been closer to 30 just because of the nature of the area, but I'd definitely put it at 50/50 that they at least hit the freezing mark. Answer me back sometime will ya? What a weenie you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 What a weenie you are. Cmon Scoots, you know deep in your heart you are a bigger weenie than almost anyone else. Don't you even try to deny it. Your nearly 40k posts back that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Do you think there should be a stronger aleutian low than what the EC indicates? Days and days of January sun for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 59.7..so I'll take that over rad. cooling any day of the week hmmmmm... I had a high of only 59 and still got down to 35 Me ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Down to 40 in Old Lyme CT this morning, about two miles inland from the Sound. Coldest of the season so far beating out 43 on 9/24 and 9/11. The 43 recorded on 9/11 was the earliest in over a decade for a temperature that cold; same with this morning's low of 40 which is about two weeks ahead of schedule. Nice having some cold superlatives to talk about for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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