Wxeastern's thoughts on fall/Preliminary Winter Temp/Pattern Outlook

[WXeastern]

First of all I want to address some who are claiming there is no sign of El Nino right now. IMO El nino is more than just some ONI/SOI/SST values. El Nino is showing itself synoptically in the weather pattern in a big way across North America right now!!

There are several different guidance/teleconnection/Indice and Analog products that I have looked over very thoroughly to try and make my longer range outlooks more accurate and my interpretation of these products leads me to believe that October will be warmer than September. I am also starting to see signals that November will come in warmer than normal in the eastern US also! A couple of different seasonal models also suggest the same. This is a fall pattern typical of a -NAO summer going into Neutral/weak Nino fall/winter!

The NAO normally will become more neutral to positive the later we get into fall due to several factors such as the summer/winter NAO correlations. This could mean a spike in severe weather wx in the OH and TN Valleys and on eastward into the mid Atlantic later in the fall.

If that happens I think it will set the stage for a drop in temps/heights and drive NAO values into negative territory towards the end of December. The weak Nino thats trying to develop in a rather new negative regime of the PDO also argues for a negative NAO during winter. This leads me to think about buying into a very anomalously cold winter in the eastern united states especially in January and Febuary. The (09/10) (76/77) analogs dont look so crazy to me anymore.

Here are some anomalies I came up with using DJF ONI analogs with values from .4 to .7 which is borderline weak nino/neutral ONI values.

Dec

JAN

FEB

Now here is the same data minus the years that were in a positive PDO regime since we are currently in a negative regime

Given the expected weak nino I expect December to start off warmer than normal in the eastern US... but by the time holiday season rolls around things will have changed due to what I have discussed above. By then I expect the polar vortex to be in a weakened state and therefore strengthen the high latitude blocking. Keep in mind its stll very early and things will change quickly but at this point my confidence is decent!

If the weak Nino does play out..it will be the first of this -PDO regime!

[calculus1]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Always interesting to read what information leads someone to make a particular forecast.

[BIG FROSTY]

Good read! Thanks for posting... And I hope it verifies close to your thoughts.

[nchighcountrywx]

+1

Thanks for sharing your analysis!