snowlover2 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 There's a slight risk area for parts of eastern IL and western IN today. There is now a decent chance of a watch being issued for said area. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WCNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211836Z - 212000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY JUST TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NE MO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND ON THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT SPRINGFIELD IL CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 2 TO 3 KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD INTO THE MCD AREA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 C TO -19C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO WRN IND AS SHOWN ON MESOSANALYSIS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NOW AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AT LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ROTATE AND PERSIST. ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/21/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Indianapolis and its north suburbs may want to keep a heads-up. A very nasty complex is suddenly heading in their direction at a good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Indianapolis and its north suburbs may want to keep a heads-up. A very nasty complex is suddenly heading in their direction at a good clip. getting [punded with heavy rain, wind and hail on NW side of Indy, near Eagle Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Lots of hail reports in Indy. From Twitter via Jim O'Brian of Fox 59's page: http://twitter.com/makaveli1376/status/249293406294114304/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Here is a picture from the hail at my house this evening, just NW of Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Some of the storms have shown a bit of rotation at times, including the supercell ESE of Indy that had a good signature at 657 CDT near Morristown and west of Rushville on the lowest scan of the Indy TDWR. No TOR's yet from the offices involved, but one may get issued before the night is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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