HoarfrostHubb Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The muds in SRI say it will happen again... about a 1 in 100 year event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The muds in SRI say it will happen again... about a 1 in 100 year event Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The muds in SRI say it will happen again... about a 1 in 100 year event Don't steal Ginx's thunder. From an insurance standpoint a track like 1938 so far west in SNE at its intensity is probably more than a 1 in 100 year event. A cat 3 that tracks over Narraganssett Bay while moving NE will have far less impact on a regional economic level than a cat 3 in HVN moving due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Don't steal Ginx's thunder. From an insurance standpoint a track like 1938 so far west in SNE at its intensity is probably more than a 1 in 100 year event. A cat 3 that tracks over Narraganssett Bay while moving NE will have far less impact on a regional economic level than a cat 3 in HVN moving due north. Looked at a bunch of tracks from famous storms, the eye or filling eyes went over my present house 3 times. So we have 1638, 1815, 1938, 1954 as the biggies From Saybrook east. My question has HVN west had a major go west of them? Not Gloria stuff I am talking 38 ish. We have historical sediment records for SECT SRI SE MASS what about SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Looked at a bunch of tracks from famous storms, the eye or filling eyes went over my present house 3 times. So we have 1638, 1815, 1938, 1954 as the biggies From Saybrook east. My question has HVN west had a major go west of them? Not Gloria stuff I am talking 38 ish. We have historical sediment records for SECT SRI SE MASS what about SW CT I'm sure one has. The thing about 38 is that it started to tick westward when off the Carolinas... it was moving at like a 20-30 degree heading then started 330 for a time as it was being absorbed. So anything is possible. Obviously the odds increase the farther east you travel in SNE just because of geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Looked at a bunch of tracks from famous storms, the eye or filling eyes went over my present house 3 times. So we have 1638, 1815, 1938, 1954 as the biggies From Saybrook east. My question has HVN west had a major go west of them? Not Gloria stuff I am talking 38 ish. We have historical sediment records for SECT SRI SE MASS what about SW CT 1938 and 1954 were New Haven and Old Saybrook, respectively. So the actual landfall wasn't east of Old Saybrook in those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Where would the most damage be on a Narragansett Bay track? Why would it be less expensive? (not saying it wouldn't be but wondering why) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Where would the most damage be on a Narragansett Bay track? Why would it be less expensive? (not saying it wouldn't be but wondering why) If the storm was moving NE and track from Narraganssett Bay to just south of Boston you'd have SE Mass and E RI in the right front quadrant of the storm. While quite destructive in those areas the area of significant damage would be more localized than a storm say over HVN moving due north putting a much larger portion of SNE in the right front quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Where would the most damage be on a Narragansett Bay track? Why would it be less expensive? (not saying it wouldn't be but wondering why) Well with a narragansett track, storm surge would be there and points east. With a track near HVN the surge would extend into the Cape and not to mention a larger area covered by the right quadrant of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I went back looking through some old hourly obs, but data was sparse then. Anyways...here are the best obs I could find. BOS (Logan): 9/22 00z...S 50mph sustained...992.9mb ACK: 9/22 00z: S 38mph sustained...1001.1mb BTV (intl): 9/22 13z: SSE 33mph sustained BTV (old site): 9/22 6z: 30mph sustained...992.9mb HFD: 9/21 20z: ENE 39mph sustained...974.6mb 9/21 21z: no ob except for 959.0mb 9/21 22z: SW 47mph sustained...961.7mb PVD: 9/21 20z: ESE 40mph sustained...989.2mb 9/21 21z: ESE 81mph sustained...982.1mb 9/21 22z: ESE 101mph sustained... 984.4mb 9/21 23z: SSW 60mph sustained...993.9mb 9/22 00z: S 40mph sustained...995.3mb CON: 9/21 21z: SE 45mph sustained...988.1mb Mitchel Field, NY: 9/21 19z: NE 52mph sustained...967.8mb HFD and PVD had the most thorough (and impressive) hourly data sets for those days that I could find. Doesn't seem realistic that the pressure would start rising with no wind direction shift. Also I'd expect the 100mph sustained closer to the 960mb contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 I'm sure one has. The thing about 38 is that it started to tick westward when off the Carolinas... it was moving at like a 20-30 degree heading then started 330 for a time as it was being absorbed. So anything is possible. Obviously the odds increase the farther east you travel in SNE just because of geography. I guess throw in a fakeout on top of everything else. I guess it really was the perfect unforcastable storm. Only thing to make it less forecastable would be to have Irene's 5 irenes in the 5 years before it to bias the forecasters towards weaker storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 23, 2012 Share Posted September 23, 2012 What if Hazel developed 200mi NE closer to origin of Edna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Doesn't seem realistic that the pressure would start rising with no wind direction shift. Also I'd expect the 100mph sustained closer to the 960mb contour. The storm was turning NNW as it was making landfall....its not like the eye went over PVD...it was really far west of them. So the pressure could have easily risen a couple mb with still howling SE winds. Esp since the storm was losing pressure after it made landfall...but the windfield was probably getting some baroclinic aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 http://www.mefeedia.com/watch/45624044 Robert Hart on the extratropical transition and track of the 1938 Li/NE hurricane. He seems to think it was a case of warm seclusion. The presentation seems to ask more questions than it answers, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Tons of videos and pictures of it... Wish I could find some from my hometown (Cumberland) Obviously this and the blizzard of 78 are the two stories you hear most when it comes to RI Weather.... My grandmother had stories about how she went to school in the morning that day and it was perfect out, and by the time they got out of a school.. she had to walk home in the hurricane. Its fascinating and scary because we all know how bad this will be the next time it happens. Here's a full video on it on youtube.... from the history channel and based on the aforementioned "Sudden Sea": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Lf5uIoQKU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Also.A wind to shook the world Some unrelated but fascinating comments: That film also contains some rare visible satellite loops of cyclones from the 1960s. The one at 9:25 is somewhere around 25°N and west of 60°W--you can see the latitude and longitude markings. I looked up storms in that area and the most likely candidates are either Dora / Gladys 1964 or Debbie 1969. The storm at 9:25 looks well organized and has a well-defined but hazy eye near 25.0N 63°W. Dora and Gladys were both rapidly intensifying at this stage (in this area, Dora went from 960 to 942 mb, Gladys from 1001 to 954 mb--each becoming major hurricanes in a six-hour period)...and the storm on the satellite looks to have well-defined and expanding outflow and certainly looks like a major hurricane, accounting for the poor quality of the TIROS satellite then in service. Also, around 9:35, there is a visible loop showing Camille 1969 approaching the Gulf Coast, which I have never seen before. I have seen still images of the storm at that stage, late on August 16, but never a loop. Also, Camille in the images shown appears to be NW of the Tampa area--you can see the FL peninsula on the right. You can also see Camille interacting with the trough to its NW--something that is not visible in this image on August 16. So the loop here shows Camille early on August 17, likely just after it peaked, as it was nearing the Mississippi coastline. That is a truly rare loop and it seems to show much less shear or dry air than in more recent Gulf majors of the 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm upping a video I bought off of Ebay thats an official WPA video from 1939 about the hurricane. Very interesting... will put up the link when it finishes uploading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 ""This film the WPA action when a hurricane whipped into the New England Coast around 1938. The WPA workers mobilized to help New England recover from the effects of the disastrous 1938 hurricane. The film contains storm footage all up and down the New England coastline."" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm upping a video I bought off of Ebay thats an official WPA video from 1939 about the hurricane. Very interesting... will put up the link when it finishes uploading. ""This film the WPA action when a hurricane whipped into the New England Coast around 1938. The WPA workers mobilized to help New England recover from the effects of the disastrous 1938 hurricane. The film contains storm footage all up and down the New England coastline."" you know this was already on you tube right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I love the music and narration on these old news reels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 you know this was already on you tube right? I didn't. I paid like 3 dollars + shipping for it, so no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I love the music and narration on these old news reels Sad thing is I remember them at the movie theater, ours were often stories of the Vietnam "conflict" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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