CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 I could see a conditional tornado threat Hudson Valley toward the Poconos tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 It appears that whatever comes east, it will not be running into a better thermodynamic environment and surface parcels will have to lift via something synoptic. Factoring in entrainment issues could also keep the threat even more west too. Having said that, I do like the low level environment / estimated LCL heights in E PA / NY. Finally, given the orientation of the shear vectors, this may quickly go linear and tend to focus north with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Storms Now you know exactly how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Now you know exactly how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Now you know exactly how I feel. I feel like many of us will see storms tomorrow evening..Lot of dynamics with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I feel like many of us will see storms tomorrow evening..Lot of dynamics with this There could be some embedded elevated storms across southern New England tomorrow night but we'll see. Depends on what the convection is like just west of us as it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 SPC SIG TOR is not bad for eastern NY. I don't think you can completely count extreme western CT out either if some discrete develops across eastern NY early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 SPC SIG TOR is not bad for eastern NY. I don't think you can completely count extreme western CT out either if some discrete develops across eastern NY early enough. it seems fairly unlikely you're going to get anything discrete out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 it seems fairly unlikely you're going to get anything discrete out there Yeah I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Yeah I agree. Higher CIN values may also limit activity, even across western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I see almost zero reason to be excited for anything more than a shwr in most areas east of the CT river...probably even to the NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I see almost zero reason to be excited for anything more than a shwr in most areas east of the CT river...probably even to the NY border. I don't think anyone is really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Higher CIN values may also limit activity, even across western CT. We'll only be seeing stuff when everything moves through during the overnight...and it's just heavy downpours...maybe a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 it seems fairly unlikely you're going to get anything discrete out there Yeah it does look like it's going to get linear pretty quickly. However looking at the KBGM sounding valid for 18z (perhaps a little west of the actual "tornado area"), does show 0 CIN, 1245 J/KG of SB CAPE and steep surface lapse rates. The dewpoint "shooting up" through the mixed layer is also kinda appealing. Once you get past 18z, though, the mode would probably become linear pretty quickly so there's a small window of opportunity. Instability rapidly cuts off once you get east of the NY border, though, so not sure I'm feeling much for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 it seems fairly unlikely you're going to get anything discrete out there I agree..looking at hires models and even the GFS and UK are showing two QLCS' developing during the 21z-03Z time frame..one from Mohawk Valley NNE-NE to LCV the other from the Capital District SSW to NNJ. The S'rn end of this line may be where best threat for spinups brief tornado or two occurs. Strong divergence and the orientation of such in the 500-300 hPa layer favors a liner convective mode. 12z NAM does have some very high sRH values of 200-250 orieneted from the east slops of the Southern Catskills to Lake George for 00z saturday evening. The values around 250 are across SENY up to S'rn columbia county and extreme NW CT and S'rn Berkshire county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I don't think anyone is really excited. Could be a good line in NY and PA, but I think timing sucks here. That's all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I see almost zero reason to be excited for anything more than a shwr in most areas east of the CT river...probably even to the NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Who's been more correct...myself or you lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Who's been more correct...myself or you lately? Lately..me i nailed the south flow event Over the long haul..you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Lately..me i nailed the south flow event Over the long haul..you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Lately..me i nailed the south flow event Over the long haul..you Sounds like a baseball player who is 0 for his last 32 then hits one..now he's one for his last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Model soundings are abysmal for thunder chances in SNE. It looks like a narrow window of surface based convection is possible tomorrow across teh Catskills but things start to go downhill quickly once east of the Hudson River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Sounds like a baseball player who is 0 for his last 32 then hits one..now he's one for his last one. I thought Carl Crawford was on the DL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 The differences in model soundings between POU and BDL are quite striking tomorrow. These cells will hit a brick wall on the NY/CT border lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Riddle me this.... I'm doing my typical storm post-mortem from the Tuesday night event. While the convection was by and large a but there was a small area in CT that had a fairly impressive burst of damaging convective winds. In fact several towns were nearly 100% without power Wednesday morning because of widespread tree damage. Here's the outage map from CL&P showing the towns hard hit in eastern CT (Lebanon, Hampton, Chaplin, and Pomfret). When I looked at radar after the fact I expected to see a convective element in the main line moving SSW-NNE. Maybe even a low level mesocyclone (like the one we saw in the Sound and the Atlantic?). But nope... none of the above. Here's a grab from when the storm started producing wind damage with what I'm guessing was a batch of 50-55 knot gusts that tracked for about 20 miles through E CT. Clockwise from upper left we have 0.5 BR, 0.5 SRV, 0.9BV, 0.5BV. Notice over the town of Lebanon a distinct pocket of 60+ knot outbounds approx 4500 ft AGL behind the leading edge of the line. This feature was traceable all the way back to the Sound and up through the Mass border. Here's OKX (same 4 panel layout) from 0258Z or about 20 minutes prior to damage beginning in Lebanon, CT. You can see a kink on the LEWP/frontal wave that develops there. The main line probably outran the LLJ but it's just an odd looking feature that occurred to the northwest of the occlusion on the wave that develops there and tracks NE. Any ideas??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I am guessing no one did an aerial. Nice swath of damage. I can tell you this, at 1125 we had a 3-5 min period where the sustained winds completely died off then boom a tremendous gust came through. We lost power at that time. I know I was about 7 miles east of the worst but just wanted to relate my experience at that time. Lots of limbs down and some tree tops sheared here and there in my hood with one 3-4 diameter shear in my wooded lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 I am guessing no one did an aerial. Nice swath of damage. I can tell you this, at 1125 we had a 3-5 min period where the sustained winds completely died off then boom a tremendous gust came through. We lost power at that time. I know I was about 7 miles east of the worst but just wanted to relate my experience at that time. Lots of limbs down and some tree tops sheared here and there in my hood with one 3-4 diameter shear in my wooded lot. Yeah that actually was similar to what happened here. Strong wind... lull with the +RA... then a return to the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Will it even rain in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Will it even rain in SNE? When are your storms arriving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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