fsu_wxgirl Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 SPC has put out a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday from NY and New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Seems pretty aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Yeah, I'm not seeing the strong 850 jet like we did on the 8th. The upper level jets are pretty strong, but I'm not seeing much in the way of instability. I'm thinking maybe just isolated strong to severe thunderstorms as the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 The timing also looks pretty bad ... looks like after 9pm to midnight...i would think the better shot is out in central pa if their is any shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Open house day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I refuse to get sucked in again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 The timing also looks pretty bad ... looks like after 9pm to midnight...i would think the better shot is out in central pa if their is any shot. so at this point looking dry before 9pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 It'll be close, latest GFS looks to have the precip coming through Eastern PA between 7pm and 9pm. Of course I missed the 9/8 forecast because I didn't take into account convection firing up ahead of the front during the afternoon hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 It'll be close, latest GFS looks to have the precip coming through Eastern PA between 7pm and 9pm. Of course I missed the 9/8 forecast because I didn't take into account convection firing up ahead of the front during the afternoon hours. Need those mid 60s dew points to verify and for it to arrive earlier than the evening. The mid level lapse rates look to be better, but like you posted the llj does not look to be as energetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 12z euro brings this across the region around 3-6z so 9-12pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Dumb set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Seems pretty aggressive That's what I thought. Might be more viable west of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I am going to the Penn State game which stars at 3:30. Any idea what time the storms go through the State College area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Dumb set up Yep, I don't see much promise with this one right now. In the last event we had the shear but very little instability and you see how that turned out. With this event it appears the dynamics might not be as impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Might sound wierd but i for one am rooting against the threat. Want it to be a decent smooth day, nice open house then go get my wifes old car back from our friends house in NJ, then head back here to rest and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Might sound wierd but i for one am rooting against the threat. Want it to be a decent smooth day, nice open house then go get my wifes old car back from our friends house in NJ, then head back here to rest and relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Lol. See you Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 still 15% for tomorrow ..PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO GA/AL. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LACK OF ROBUST INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...SOME ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY OCCUR -- WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MID EVENING...THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENT ATTM TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS -- INCLUDING THE ALBANY/NEW YORK CITY/PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 The 15% moved east and south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Sorry I didn't post the image properly yesterday...here is the updated percentage map, hopefully I post it correctly this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I am going to the Penn State game which stars at 3:30. Any idea what time the storms go through the State College area? Might be some isolated showers around, but I don't think PSU is going to see significant storms. Looks more like a typical overcast day there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Might be some isolated showers around, but I don't think PSU is going to see significant storms. Looks more like a typical overcast day there. Thanks so much. I knew by your title that I could count on you. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Here is yesterday's Day 3 for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Here is yesterday's Day 3 for comparison. Moved south and east only by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Moved south and east only by a bit. True, but we were on edge before and now we're solidly in... plus now all of NJ and DE are included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 looks pretty garden variety on the 12z hi res... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 True, but we were on edge before and now we're solidly in... plus now all of NJ and DE are included. Sucks you won't be going to the open house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Think a few rogue warnings could fire along the line but for most people it's probably a gusty shower or downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Where? I don't see it on this map... SPC has put out a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday from NY and New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Hotlink FTL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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