H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 1:36 AM, Mallow said: Wasn't a perfectly sunny, high-pressure mixing up to 700mb argument something like 68F? Seems like with advection (even if it's not impressive) and clouds/precip during the day, it's hard to argue anywhere near that. There might be a little something to say about downsloping tomorrow, but 67F seems unreasonable, and 65F even seems too high, I think. Too bad they wouldn't cancel out, huh? That would be nice..lol. I'm trying here, they dont teach us much at WCSU. At least I haven't forgotten yet and despite my horrible performance I'm in the negatives. I think if they were to go dry adiabatic with full sun and the progged 2C 700 mb temps. tomorrow I calculated they'd hit something like 70F. I doubt that will be the case though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 12:41 AM, Dsnowx53 said: I went 65/46/35/.15" Almost same ... plus 2 on the high 67/46/35/.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 downslope winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 1:36 AM, Mallow said: Wasn't a perfectly sunny, high-pressure mixing up to 700mb argument something like 68F? Seems like with advection (even if it's not impressive) and clouds/precip during the day, it's hard to argue anywhere near that. There might be a little something to say about downsloping tomorrow, but 67F seems unreasonable, and 65F even seems too high, I think. Yeah, the downsloping was another reason why I went 65. I think if the clouds break up a tad like the USL is showing in the mid-afternoon, and you add in the downsloping, 65 is attainable. Though of course to an extent, downsloping and clouds breaking go hand-in-hand, since subsidence/DVM leads to air parcel compression and stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 65/43/33/0.16" I'm always trigger shy on high-wind days. Don't know why. 33 will probably bust low, but hopefully not too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Surprised it made it down to 44F this morning. We might have a morning low after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 1:08 PM, Mallow said: Surprised it made it down to 44F this morning. We might have a morning low after all. Already beat out the top half of distribution Edit: Sweet. Altocumulus Standing Lenticular.. METAR KBIL 161353Z 25013KT 10SM BKN100 11/03 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP984 ACSL DSNT E-SE T01110033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Lets see how much it warms up before the rains (if they come) come. The global models backed off the amount of precipitation expected, which is a little concerning for those who went on the lower side of guidance. Up to 55 at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It's literally pouring everywhere in the area except Billings itself. Sigh. And that low of 44...I mean it could obviously still cool off before midnight, but people being right for the wrong reason really ticks me off. In other news, a special METAR reported a 32 knot wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Woo! 23 in the country right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Swing and a miss on the precip........damn it. Com'on wind and a midnight low!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 8:14 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Swing and a miss on the precip........damn it. Com'on wind and a midnight low!! Winds are going to be whipping tonight, and even with the ongoing CAA, it is advecting from an airmass with Pacific Origin, so I think 44F will be the low. Looking ahead to tomorrow, it looks like the low will occur at the end of the period, so I won't even look at the results until this time tomorrow or later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Uggggh, no rain. Putting 0.16" was a bad, bad idea. I did have 44 for the low, although I was expecting it to occur tonight. So hopefully the temperature holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 9:09 PM, wi_fl_wx said: Uggggh, no rain. Putting 0.16" was a bad, bad idea. I did have 44 for the low, although I was expecting it to occur tonight. So hopefully the temperature holds up. I dunno if it was bad idea, it just seems that we got unlucky. There was lots of rain to the north, south, east, and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 9:12 PM, Dsnowx53 said: I dunno if it was bad idea, it just seems that we got unlucky. There was lots of rain to the north, south, east, and west. I think most areas (not helped by elevation) that got rain got under 0.12" or so, so I do think going above that was a bad idea still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 6:53 PM, Dsnowx53 said: It's literally pouring everywhere in the area except Billings itself. Sigh. And that low of 44...I mean it could obviously still cool off before midnight, but people being right for the wrong reason really ticks me off. In other news, a special METAR reported a 32 knot wind. Actually I read that METAR wrong. The 12:53pm METAR showed a peak wind of 39 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Peak wind of 36 knots last hour without any precip. Tomorrow is going to be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 High of 65F on the climo report...I quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 11:25 PM, H2Otown_WX said: High of 65F on the climo report...I quit. Where are you getting the climate report from? The site I'm using isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 11:33 PM, Dsnowx53 said: Where are you getting the climate report from? The site I'm using isn't updating. http://weather.cod.edu/text/ Click NWS State Products, then click Montana, and scroll down to Southern Montana, Billings climo is the first link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 On 10/16/2012 at 11:38 PM, H2Otown_WX said: http://weather.cod.edu/text/ Click NWS State Products, then click Montana, and scroll down to Southern Montana, Billings climo is the first link. Thanks! 32 knot sustained winds as well. Winds are increasing again but I'm not sure they'll go past 32 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I went 55/37/39/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Went 49/37/35/0.00 for tomorrow. Guess I am pretty low with my high for tomorrow. We just had an Earthquake here in New England. So I honestly don't remember why I went so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Went with 52/34/43/0 tomorrow. By the way, the latest obs at Billings is 35G44KT Wind is going to be 40kt today. I'll be in 9th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 35 knots last hourly observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I went 54/35/31/0.00 . Even though 700 mb temperatures will be significantly cooler I think there will be some downsloping to keep highs in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 On 10/17/2012 at 12:10 AM, Mallow said: Went with 52/34/43/0 tomorrow. By the way, the latest obs at Billings is 35G44KT Wind is going to be 40kt today. I'll be in 7th place. I really wanted to put a 40 in for today........o well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 On 10/17/2012 at 12:11 AM, OSUwx said: I went 54/35/31/0.00 . Even though 700 mb temperatures will be significantly cooler I think there will be some downsloping to keep highs in the mid 50s. That was my logic as well. The downsloping certainly worked out today with a high of 65. I'm kind of regretting not being more aggressive than 39 knots with the winds for tomorrow. I was thinking of going 40+, but I chickened out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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