wxmeddler Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Climo says 55/35/12/0.02 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 430 PM MDT TUE OCT 9 2012 ................................... ...THE BILLINGS MT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 9 2012... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1934 TO 2012 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 55 258 PM 85 1965 62 -7 62 MINIMUM 35 210 AM 18 2009 39 -4 35 1993 1985 AVERAGE 45 51 -6 49 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.02 0.42 1960 0.04 -0.02 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.73 0.41 0.32 1.19 SINCE OCT 1 0.73 0.41 0.32 1.19 SINCE JAN 1 5.81 11.76 -5.95 18.40 .................................................................. WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (200) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 18 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SW (210) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 11.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Ouch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 This first day in Billings has killed me. I went 51/35/12/0.10in without looking at the dew points and it really showed. I was hoping some of the overnight precip would fall with our 06z to 06z time frame but I also misinterpreted that greatly. My numbers for tomorrow are 65/39/15/0.00in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I went with 52/35/10/0.01 for today. Not bad overall, but I always underestimate the winds on the first day of a non-tropical city. So tomorrow I went with 69/39/21/0.00. Tough call between what will win out tonight: will breezy conditions keep the low from plummeting Or will clear skies and dry air take care of it anyway? 39 is a bit of a gamble, but we'll see tomorrow morning if it paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Went 68/40/23/0.00" for tomorrow. Looking at the National Distribution is pretty hilarious. Forecasts are all over the place. Even when looking at the local distribution it is spread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Odds are todays wind verification will be a little higher given the 0z wind at 12kts. For tomorrow I went 68/36/14/0.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 4.7 kts standard deviation on the winds and a group of people seem to have put the high's down in the 50's? Wonder where they got that data from... 68/40/23/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 4.7 kts standard deviation on the winds and a group of people seem to have put the high's down in the 50's? Wonder where they got that data from... 68/40/23/0 Boy do I hope your forecast for tomorrow is very accurate........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Climo says 55/35/12/0.02 There are some fishy things going on with that climate report. Methinks it's going to look like 55/35/13 (or 14)/0.04 in the end. The 0.02 doesn't make sense, they have the wrong time for one of the temperatures (I think it's the high?), and peak sustained wind almost never verifies on the hourly obs except in moderate climates. Anyway, I'm hoping to make a big comeback tomorrow with... 69/42/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I went 68/40/24/0. That wind distribution is nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Had a bad Day 1..looking to rebound. 69/39/22/0.00 it appears I'm in the same ballpark as you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 <- My reaction to a low of 42 and winds gusting to 23 kts this morning. METAR KBIL 101153Z 24019G23KT 10SM CLR 07/M03 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP142 T00671028 10072 20056 56019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 2nd place after day 1!!! Have 66/42/20/0 for today. Right now the low of 42 looks brilliant but I think it will get lower before midnight. Also afraid of that front hitting too early today and keeping the high down. As for the wind...typical Montana weather... Edit: temperature has been at 44.1 degrees for 4 straight hours...is the sensor broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 2nd place after day 1!!! Have 66/42/20/0 for today. Right now the low of 42 looks brilliant but I think it will get lower before midnight. Also afraid of that front hitting too early today and keeping the high down. As for the wind...typical Montana weather... Edit: temperature has been at 44.1 degrees for 4 straight hours...is the sensor broken? Nope. That's what we call a gap wind. Love it. That's why I went with 42F today. Your 20 is going to be too low, and I'm hoping your 66F is too low as well. But ya, you should be doing very well after today. Assuming the verification is something like 68/42/24/0, you'll still be in 17th place (you'll be tied for first if it's 66F instead). And with a 68/42/24/0 I'll have gone from 1071st place (after missing the low by 3F yesterday) to 244th place today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Horrible today went with. 68/37/18/0 Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Day 2 Climo Says: 69/42/24/0 Edit: Metar just showed 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It hit 70. Yikes. The 22 Z USL is the big winner today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 went with 51/37/13/0 for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Worried about the low tonight wet-bulbing down lower. Otherwise, I'm confident. 53/37/14/0 On today's note: 71°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 53/38/14/0 Tricky forecast low with those clouds scheduled to move in. Not impressed with the colder air tomorrow, guidance is probably too low for the third straight day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Boy is the temperature really plummetting right now. But luckily, the dew point is on the rise too. Really rooting for the temperature to reach 40 degrees before 6Z, but then only lower down a few more degrees........too much to ask for? Today's wind looks to verify at atleast 24 kts. Went with 53/37/14/.01 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Anyway, I'm hoping to make a big comeback tomorrow with... 69/42/25/0 Love it... verification looks to be 71/42/24/0. That brings me from 1071st place to 144th place! Anyhow, for tomorrow I'm... 49/35/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I know I only went with .01 for precip......but if these sprinkles could ever amount to something that would be great...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Worried about the low tonight wet-bulbing down lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Temperature continues to drop. Down to 34. Forecasted high of 53 not looking so good. Falling out of the top 100 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Anyhow, for tomorrow I'm... 49/35/15/0 I'm looking pretty good so far. Looks like verification might end up being something like... 45/33/17/0 If that's the case, I'll be moving from 144th place to 26th place overall... after moving from 1071st place to 144th yesterday. If only I hadn't screwed the pooch on day 1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Looks like verification might end up being something like... 45/33/17/0 If that's the case then I drop 71 places but go lower in std. deviation. Win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Bad forecast day... went 50ish and not getting anywhere near that... Down to 36F now but tomorrow will be fun forecasting highs in the 70s thanks to downsloping winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Burned by the clouds today, anyone who forecasted 49 or lower is looking good. If the sun would have come out like it should have, it would have hit at least 55 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Fine tuning my forecast for tomorrow as we speak, but right now I have a forecasted 40 degree difference between my low and high. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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