heavy_wx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I probably went too low with the winds. 55/38/12/0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 55/37/18/0.14 I agree with the "good riddance" sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Something I just thought of regarding the climo report: The winds are solely based on the daily climatology report. The climatology report is a midnight-midnight running feature. However, in Astoria, this is 8z-8z, instead of 6z-6z. Would this mean that a wind at 8z tomorrow would be valid for tomorrow's forecast, even though it would be after the 6z time period? This is important considering the fact that the winds are supposed to increase later in the forecast period, and especially right after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Something I just thought of regarding the climo report: The winds are solely based on the daily climatology report. The climatology report is a midnight-midnight running feature. However, in Astoria, this is 8z-8z, instead of 6z-6z. Would this mean that a wind at 8z tomorrow would be valid for tomorrow's forecast, even though it would be after the 6z time period? This is important considering the fact that the winds are supposed to increase later in the forecast period, and especially right after it. Yep. Also, I can't believe I went 37F today. I knew better, but I was stubborn. Good riddance, Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Yep. Also, I can't believe I went 37F today. I knew better, but I was stubborn. Good riddance, Astoria. Same :/ I got too caught up in Astoria often dipping below MOS that I overlooked the fact that there was clearly going to be more cloud cover around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Same :/ I got too caught up in Astoria often dipping below MOS that I overlooked the fact that there was clearly going to be more cloud cover around. Yep, busted low myself. Gotta love how there's rain just missing them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I originally had thought 43, but went with 39. I didn't think the cloud cover would become a thick overcast until after midnight. GOOD BYE Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Please let this misery end!!!!! On to Syracuse. Thank the lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Please let this misery end!!!!! On to Syracuse. Thank the lord. Don't forget we have a week off to think about what went wrong in Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Where the heck are the winds!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 They disappeared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I actually thought that might happen, too. Easterlies can be darned persistent out there. Don't know why I didn't go with it, though. Or with the higher low. I would have been golden. KAST sucked, but it was mostly my own fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 12 kts are reporting now for the final on day 8. I jumped into the top 300, horray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think for the vote city, it would be cool to vote and forecast for TJSJ. That is San Juan, PR. I'm not familiar with what kind of weather they get if any during early spring, but I don't recall wxchallenge ever doing a city in a U.S. Territory that isn't classified as a state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Now that we are back up and running in the wxchallange after the Holiday let's get this thread rolling again. Gunna be warm today in Syracuse today. Already at 38. Unless those clouds move in from the north, 40 does not seem out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I thought the snow on the ground would be of use... guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I expected a low high today as well, but the low is going to be what makes or breaks me today. I'm at... 37/30/10/0 So far it looks like it could be... 39 (or 40)/30/12/0 If the low drops below 30F by 06z, I'm screwed. But if it stays up (and I think it will), I'll actually finish day 1 in pretty good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I went 38/27/10/0.00 for today. All i need is for the low to fall below 30 tonight before 6z and I will be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I went 38/27/10/0.00 for today. All i need is for the low to fall below 30 tonight before 6z and I will be golden. The high was 40 and the wind was 13 kts according to the climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The high was 40 and the wind was 13 kts according to the climo report. Saw that. Puts me right in the middle of the pack. Could really use the temperature to drop below 30 before 6z. Went out on a big limb tomorrow!!! Officially forecasted the highest wind speed in the game for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Kinda went out on a limb myself tomorrow... 39/28/20/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The high was 40 and the wind was 13 kts according to the climo report. Which bumps me up to 161. Much better start than in Astoria, when I put 21 knots and the consensus was like 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Kinda went out on a limb myself tomorrow... 39/28/20/0.02 I originally had 20. But when I saw today's winds over perform I reacted to it and bumped up winds for tomorrow. Winds just off the surface.....like 975 mb are forecast to be around 25 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I originally had 20. But when I saw today's winds over perform I reacted to it and bumped up winds for tomorrow. Winds just off the surface.....like 975 mb are forecast to be around 25 kts. Right. But then all my PSU buddies (who are generally very good with the wind) went with 17-18 which confused the heck out of me. Now I'm not sure if there's something I'm missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Good for you guys who went 39 or 40 today. I just couldn't buy them getting that high given their 850's being at like -9C but I guess Lake Ontario did its magic. Anyway, for tomorrow I have 39/29/18/.02 pretty similar to Mallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Low of 30. A little higher than many went for this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Probably my closest call yet: Forecast Status :Saved - On Time - (23:59:45 UTC) Went 42/30/18/0.01 Looks like farther up I-81 is going to get a good hit tomorrow, but I'm banking on SYR staying in the subsidence region. We'll see about that. After spending a combined 15 minutes on my forecasts for SYR so far, I'm sitting in 3rd at Valpo and 101 nationally (I type this before the climo report comes in, of course). That tends to happen, though, to those of us who don't give up after a bad city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 42/29/19/0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 43/26/20/0.02 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 42/27/15/0.05. Wasn't able to look at the 18Z model runs yesterday. My forecast was based on 12Z info and observation. Precip didn't pan out as the band set up to the north. Since I forecast for some snow to fall I thought the temperature was going to wetbulb to a lower value since it was relatively dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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