Mallow Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Ya, so, I'm doing miserably so far in KAST. Today will be my worst day yet and I was already doing poorly. So much good my "homestate advantage" did for me, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 drop city.. 50/38/7/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 drop city.. 50/38/7/0 Same. I'm at over +3 SD right now. >_< fwiw (not much apparently), I went 50/35/9/0 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I went 48/35/7/0.01 for tomorrow. So far I'm doing better than I expected for a western city considering I finished pretty poorly in Billings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Same. I'm at over +3 SD right now. >_< fwiw (not much apparently), I went 50/35/9/0 tomorrow. I was originally 33F. Should have stuck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Rank 96 for KAST, I'll take it, regression model sure is helping me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 there's a thunderstorm rolling through now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 2 Spotters reported a Funnel cloud and waterspout reported at around 620 eastern. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 2 Spotters reported a Funnel cloud and waterspout reported at around 620 eastern. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Wow, they got pretty unstable today. Check out the mid-level lapse rates on SPC mesoanalysis: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Max Wind was not 0 knots for yesterday, like is showing up in the FINAL data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Max Wind was not 0 knots for yesterday, like is showing up in the FINAL data... It should be 17 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Updated now, Tied in 21st for the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 54/44/11/.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 54/43/16/0.08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Went with 56/43/14/0.10 If a miracle happens and I end up being right, I move from about 570th place to about 30th place. Of course, given my track record so far in KAST, I'd put the chances of that happening at something like 0.01%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Went with 56/43/14/0.10 If a miracle happens and I end up being right, I move from about 570th place to about 30th place. Of course, given my track record so far in KAST, I'd put the chances of that happening at something like 0.01%. Sure enough, the opposite is happening. KAST will most certainly be my dropped city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Sure enough, the opposite is happening. KAST will most certainly be my dropped city now. Well the low temperature could still drop a few degrees before 06z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'm confused. Looking at the 3 day weather history from the NWS there is an observation of 46.........but the climo report says the min was 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 From the wxchallenge facebook page: "The WxChallenge data ingest snuck out to the bar tonight for drinks with the NAM, GFS, and that eccentric ECMWF. (HRRR was the designated driver.) It is being reprimanded for leaving everyone without up-to-the-hour results. I will manual update periodically until it sobers up and gets back to work. (You may actual see results go backwards in time periodically, so please be patient.) Until then, feel free to utilize the hypothetical verification tool." ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well now that I'm somewhere around 850th place, I finally have a good forecasting day. I'm confused. Looking at the 3 day weather history from the NWS there is an observation of 46.........but the climo report says the min was 47. It was a special obs. Those only have temperatures to the nearest degree celsius. So those "46"s in the special obs were actually 47s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well now that I'm somewhere around 850th place, I finally have a good forecasting day. It was a special obs. Those only have temperatures to the nearest degree celsius. So those "46"s in the special obs were actually 47s. Well that is interesting. Did not know that little tid bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Interesting that the NWS forecast low is 2-3 degrees colder than the NAM and GFS MOS. I wonder why that is. I can definitely see 37, but clouds seem to increase a bit during the overnight. 35 seems like a stretch. But what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 What is with this place and special OBS!? Anyway, I have 54/37/8/0 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 What is with this place and special OBS!? Anyway, I have 54/37/8/0 for tomorrow. Visibility. Mist is moving through, its going from VFR to IFR to LIFR and back and thats triggering automatic special METAR's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I was at 56/39/9/0.08 yesterday, which moved me from 872nd place (+4.67 departure >_< ) to 520th place (+2.51 departure). I'm 56/36/10/0 for today. With the low of 35F, as long as the wind gets to at least 9kts and the temperature gets to at least 55F, I'm back up near national consensus at 309th place. If it somehow magically manages to find 56F and 10kts, I'm all the way up to 163rd place (with a -1.20 departure). Kinda shocked by this two-day recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 This city is really starting to get on my nerves. I make what I feel is a good forecast. And I still drop spots. I correctly predict that it will rain yesterday. And I lose spots. While people who did not forecast rain increase in the standings. Feel like not enough weight is placed on correctly predicting precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Tomorrow might get quite windy towards the end of the period. I went 54/37/19/.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 53/39/19/0.14 good riddance to this city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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