wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 It'll be 55-57 easy today. Just called into the ASOS Number for kicks... Temp is up to 54 with winds around 5 kts. Hope your right, I put down 58! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Just called into the ASOS Number for kicks... Temp is up to 54 with winds around 5 kts. Hope your right, I put down 58! Now that is dedication! This week has been mediocre for me, have been slowly sliding back. A high of 57 would be nice, it might get to 58-59 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Now that is dedication! This week has been mediocre for me, have been slowly sliding back. A high of 57 would be nice, it might get to 58-59 though. The first five days of the contest were awesome to me. Worked my way up to 9th place. Dropped down to 35th place yesterday. After today, I'll conservatively be in 48th place (if wind is only 22kts and temperature holds at 56, I could only drop to 39th instead)... So these past two days have been a b**ch for me. But I'm looking forward to gaining back a little bit of ground tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Climo says: 57/32/23/0 Now at 125th. If I play it right tonight I can still get in to 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The first five days of the contest were awesome to me. Worked my way up to 9th place. Dropped down to 35th place yesterday. After today, I'll conservatively be in 48th place (if wind is only 22kts and temperature holds at 56, I could only drop to 39th instead)... So these past two days have been a b**ch for me. But I'm looking forward to gaining back a little bit of ground tomorrow. That's still a nice finish, although the consensus scores are not as low as they were a few days ago. A solid -4 or so is still nice. The warm weather today might be enough to get me back into the top 100. Sure beats my 500th place finish in Pensacola. Tomorrow is one of those days that the clouds (or lack thereof) will probably bust my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Made it up to 25th overall the other day, haven't done too hot the past 2 days. Thinking 71 tomorrow but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The big question is whether KBIL decouples tonight. There is a high pressure around so they might. Edit: or should I say how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The big question is whether KBIL decouples tonight. There is a high pressure around so they might. Edit: or should I say how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I ended up going 72/40/25/0 Surprised that only 15 people went 72. I imagine most of the 70s post on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I ended up going 72/40/25/0 Surprised that only 15 people went 72. I imagine most of the 70s post on this forum. I also went 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 69... Close but couldnt pull the trigger with the 70. Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Gah. Well I think the strongest winds will remain to the west overnight, but some thin high clouds could put a damper on things. I wasn't exactly sure what to make of the satellite images I looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I also went 72 Today getting to 57 with light downsloping winds convinced me enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 70/43/24/0 The gap flow is going to keep the low higher tonight. Just like on 10/10 (last Wednesday). I was right about it then, and I'm right about it this time. Besides precip, the low is where I'm doing my best. Technically I have 0.5 points more on the low than on wind, but that means I've almost been off by twice as many knots as degrees for the low. I have an average error on the low of 1.7°F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I went 72/35/17/0.00. We'll have to see how much the scattered cloud cover and southerly winds prevent the low from dropping. I think good mixing and downsloping from the southwest should get highs into the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 70/43/24/0 The gap flow is going to keep the low higher tonight. Just like on 10/10 (last Wednesday). I was right about it then, and I'm right about it this time. Besides precip, the low is where I'm doing my best. Technically I have 0.5 points more on the low than on wind, but that means I've almost been off by twice as many knots as degrees for the low. I have an average error on the low of 1.7°F... It's 45.... : O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I went 69/38/23/0 Was afraid to go 70 with all those high clouds around tomorrow. The temp is back up to 49 now, should be an interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 It's 45.... : O Not anymore. I went 69/38/23/0 Was afraid to go 70 with all those high clouds around tomorrow. The temp is back up to 49 now, should be an interesting night. The only thing that scares me is that Wunderground's map has almost no support for the 49F, so I have a feeling that's coming way down again at 11PM. But I think the winds are just starting to kick up, so by midnight we should have enough to keep the temperature right near 43F. The winds only pick up from there, so we'll be steady at 43F or even slowly coming up from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Not anymore. The only thing that scares me is that Wunderground's map has almost no support for the 49F, so I have a feeling that's coming way down again at 11PM. But I think the winds are just starting to kick up, so by midnight we should have enough to keep the temperature right near 43F. The winds only pick up from there, so we'll be steady at 43F or even slowly coming up from there. Lol, I didn't see that 4-degree jump coming. What a strange place Billings is..guess they won't be decoupling tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Nice. 15th place to start the day..should end up in the top 20. Very happy with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Nice. 15th place to start the day..should end up in the top 20. Very happy with that! Nice job! I'm only 48th to start the day, but could be as high as 29th if my high and wind verify. I'll certainly take a -5.53 city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Man. I f*cked that low up. Should of gone with my original guess which was 42. Score drops from -4 range to -2 range. Somehow this always happens, I screw up on the last day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Man. I f*cked that low up. Should of gone with my original guess which was 42. Score drops from -4 range to -2 range. Somehow this always happens, I screw up on the last day That gap wind can be a b**ch. Fortunately, I have experience with it being from Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I'm not that familiar with mountain forecasting. I saw low dew points and clear skies and figured the temp would drop, despite the winds. How do you know when the gap wind is going to kick in? Is it common in Billings when there is warm advection from the southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I'm not that familiar with mountain forecasting. I saw low dew points and clear skies and figured the temp would drop, despite the winds. How do you know when the gap wind is going to kick in? Is it common in Billings when there is warm advection from the southwest? All the high-res models had it... But if you don't want to go off those, you can just look for a pressure gradient between north-central Wyoming and east-central Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Tied for first in the country for the category of winds at the moment. Hourly observations have the wind at 19. Gusts were up to 28. So wind likely to finish in the 23-25 range.......rooting for 23. Would be pretty cool to say that I was the most accurate wind forecaster in a very windy place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Tied for first in the country for the category of winds at the moment. Hourly observations have the wind at 19. Gusts were up to 28. So wind likely to finish in the 23-25 range.......rooting for 23. Would be pretty cool to say that I was the most accurate wind forecaster in a very windy place. Yesterday and Wednesday destroyed any hopes I might have had for that title. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Looks like the few of us who went 70+ are doomed by cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Ya, the temperature is not increasing very fast at all. Ugh. If we can manage 68°F, it won't hurt me too bad. If we can somehow manage 69°F, even better. But below 68°F will hurt me pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The IR shows the heaviest batch of clouds moving out now with even a time of mostly sun coming in soon. But then more clouds (but not as high was the previous ones) coming through. It was only 47 at noon yesterday, so I'm not giving up on 70 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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