Chrisrotary12 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 That was my logic as well. The downsloping certainly worked out today with a high of 65. I'm kind of regretting not being more aggressive than 39 knots with the winds for tomorrow. I was thinking of going 40+, but I chickened out. Completely understandable to not want to forecast sustained winds of over 40 knots outside of a well developed synoptic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 51/37/34/0 Looked at the Climo and thought "oh only 32 kts?" Now that the 35 kt just came through. Regretting not going 37-39. Busted on today... dropping ~100 spots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Of course, the 6z low ended up being 46. So annoying that people who went colder were right for the wrong reason since no one forecast the morning low being 44. Meh. At least my 65/46 (6z 46) ended up being correct, but the error points won't reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Of course, the 6z low ended up being 46. So annoying that people who went colder were right for the wrong reason since no one forecast the morning low being 44. Meh. At least my 65/46 (6z 46) ended up being correct, but the error points won't reflect that. Psshhh. I went 45. Sure I thought it would be a 6z low, but I would have gotten the same score either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Psshhh. I went 45. Sure I thought it would be a 6z low, but I would have gotten the same score either way. Well I have a "rivalry" with someone who had a 44 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Well I have a "rivalry" with someone who had a 44 low Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 What do y'all think about the high today? I can't believe 06z GFS MOS has a high of 60 with -9C 700 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 What do y'all think about the high today? I can't believe 06z GFS MOS has a high of 60 with -9C 700 mb temps. We'll be downsloping so I think NAM guidance will bust low (its going 50)...GFS will bust high probably with ongoing CAA. Maybe 53-55? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 We'll be downsloping so I think NAM guidance will bust low (its going 50)...GFS will bust high probably with ongoing CAA. Maybe 53-55? 51-53. Downsloping can't give a better than dry adiabatic sounding. Dry adiabatic from ~700mb only supports 51-53... at least, based on last night's models (plus a degree or so for bad model initialization). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 51-53. Downsloping can't give a better than dry adiabatic sounding. Dry adiabatic from ~700mb only supports 51-53... at least, based on last night's models (plus a degree or so for bad model initialization). Weeeelllp..it's already 51F. I'd imagine the 700 mb temps. are a little warmer than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Weeeelllp..it's already 51F. I'd imagine the 700 mb temps. are a little warmer than forecasted. Haha, yep. Still... it'll probably stick around 52/53, so the high will probably be 53/54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Ouch. Today is going to hurt me a lot. I was... 52/34/43/0 Looks like it's going to be something like... 54/37/34/0 That brings me from 9th place down to 39th place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Ouch. Today is going to hurt me a lot. I was... 52/34/43/0 Looks like it's going to be something like... 54/37/34/0 That brings me from 9th place down to 39th place. yep that'll put me in 16th place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 700 mb temps warming throughout the day tomorrow. Dry air. NW wind downsloping right onto the field. I smell a bust on the high side for highs tomorrow. 59 is not unreasonable imo, although I'm always trigger shy, so I went 57/30/17/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 yep that'll put me in 16th place We've decoupled, so maybe my 34 isn't completely impossible. This is what I expected tonight, so maybe even though my high/wind ideas were way off during the day, at least I forecasted tonight well enough. If it's 34 by 06z, I'm still 10th place. For tomorrow, I'm 56/31/15/0... though I'm a little afraid my high temperature is too low and my wind is too high. And maybe my low is too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 58/32/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Looks like today I am going to finish somewhere between 60th-70th place in the country... Not too shabby. Feeling good and pushing for good forecasts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 yep that'll put me in 16th place Are you qem012, or drknow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Lots of mixing going on now...we're back up to 40. 36 will be the low for day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Wow, already up to 20 knots and the temp has risen to 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Gaaahhh. This wind is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Gaaahhh. This wind is killing me. I actually did pretty well with the wind going with 22 kts. However, I expected those winds would drop more during the night and allow the low to reach the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Gaaahhh. This wind is killing me. I'm having the exact opposite problem. I am kicking the winds ass. Total error for the 2 weeks is 6.0 for wind. High temps are killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I'm having the exact opposite problem. I am kicking the winds ass. Total error for the 2 weeks is 6.0 for wind. High temps are killing me. I was doing well enough with the wind until yesterday. Yesterday and today alone are going to give me 8.5 points on the wind. In the previous five days, I only had 3.0 points total. But the wind also killed me with the lows yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Mallow, are you still @ PSU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Mallow, are you still @ PSU? Ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Are you qem012, or drknow? My bad...19th place Watch for tomorrow to be a classic downsloping day at KBIL..wouldn't be surprised to see 70F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 My bad...19th place Watch for tomorrow to be a classic downsloping day at KBIL..wouldn't be surprised to see 70F+ It's having a hard time even getting to 55 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 It's having a hard time even getting to 55 today Wind has been variable and light...most guidance had WSW-WNW winds 8-12kts today. Tomorrow will probably feature a more prominent SW flow along with warmer 700mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 It's having a hard time even getting to 55 today It'll be 55-57 easy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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