uncle W Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 snowy years...December to March... year.......snowfall.......temperature..precipitation...*= 10" snowfalls 2009-10.......51.4".......37.4.......26.73" *** 2004-05.......41.0".......36.4.......16.31" * 2003-04.......42.6".......35.2.......13.22" ** 2002-03.......49.3".......34.2.......15.49" * 1993-94.......53.4".......33.6.......20.34" * 1977-78.......50.7".......32.5.......17.65" ** 1968-69.......30.2".......34.7.......12.03" * 1963-64.......44.7".......35.7.......12.43" * 1957-58.......44.7".......35.0.......16.60" * middle years................................................................................ 1951-52.......19.7".......37.8.......14.21" 1965-66.......21.4".......37.6.......10.25" 1969-70.......25.6".......32.6.......16.43" 1976-77.......24.5".......33.1.......14.46" 1982-83.......27.2".......39.4.......20.24" * 1986-87.......23.1".......37.4.......17.91" 1987-88.......19.1".......36.9.......14.99" 1990-91.......24.9".......40.5.......16.89" 1992-93.......24.5".......36.2.......18.39" * least snowy....................................................................................... 1952-53.......15.1".......39.5.......20.15" 1953-54.......15.8".......38.5.......11.13" 1958-59.......13.0".......33.2.........9.05" 1972-73.........2.8".......38.2.......18.77" 1979-80.......12.8".......36.9.......15.86" 1991-92.......12.6".......37.9.......11.89" 1994-95.......11.8".......39.1.......14.92" * 1997-98.........5.5".......41.1.......20.36" 2006-07.......12.4".......37.9.......13.13" averages............................................................................................ snowiest......45.3".......35.0.......16.60" mid years.....23.3".......36.8.......15.97" low years.....11.3".......38.0.......15.03" 27 yr -- average.......26.6".......36.6.......15.87" 1870-2011-- LT Ave.........28.4".......35.2.......14.40" The nine snowiest winters were colder and wetter on average...the next nine were milder and drier on average...The bottom nine were the mildest and driest on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 What would the snowfall numbers look like when looking at only weak Ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 What would the snowfall numbers look like when looking at only weak Ninos? weak nino's less than 1.0 on the ONI scale...1952-53...15.1" 1953-54...15.8" 1958-59...13.0" 1969-70...25.6" 1976-77...24.5" 1977-78...50.7" 2004-05...41.0" ave..........26.5" ............................... weak + neutral 1979-80...12.8" 1990-91...24.9" 1993-94...53.4" 1992-93...24.5" 2003-04...42.6" ave..........31.6" four great winters... four mediocre... four duds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 weak nino's less than 1.0 on the ONI scale... 1952-53...15.1" 1953-54...15.8" 1958-59...13.0" 1969-70...25.6" 1976-77...24.5" 1977-78...50.7" 2004-05...41.0" ave..........26.5" ............................... weak + neutral 1979-80...12.8" 1990-91...24.9" 1993-94...53.4" 1992-93...24.5" 2003-04...42.6" ave..........31.6" four great winters... four mediocre... four duds... Thanks uncle. Looks like this year will be a roll of the dice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Thanks uncle. Looks like this year will be a roll of the dice... It's always a roll of the dice...the nao/ao plays a big roll also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 It's always a roll of the dice...the nao/ao plays a big roll also... I wish your stats leaned a certain way but it's split perfectly three ways Hopefully there will be increased blocking due to the conditions the Arctic is experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 I wish your stats leaned a certain way but it's split perfectly three ways Hopefully there will be increased blocking due to the conditions the Arctic is experiencing. we are going to need cold air if we want a great winter with precipitation above average...the top nine years had a great storm track at times...besides one or two big hits there were many mid size storms mixed in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 I wish your stats leaned a certain way but it's split perfectly three ways Hopefully there will be increased blocking due to the conditions the Arctic is experiencing. Which Arctic conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 I added the arctic oscillation to these analogs... snowy years...AO monthly ave December to March... year..........snowfall.......Dec.......Jan.........Feb........Mar....... ave 2009-10.......51.4".......-3.413... -2.587... -4.226... -0.432... -2.664 2004-05.......41.0"......+1.230...+0.356... -1.271... -1.348... -0.258 2003-04.......42.6"......+0.265... -1.686... -1.528...+0.318... -0.658 2002-03.......49.3".......-1.592... -0.472...+0.128...+0.933... -0.251 1993-94.......53.4".......-0.104... -0.288... -0.862...+1.881...+0.157 1977-78.......50.7".......-0.240... -0.347... -3.014...+0.502... -0.800 1968-69.......30.2".......-0.783... -2.967... -3.114... -1.582... -2.112 1963-64.......44.7".......-1.178...+0.385... -0.575... -0.558... -0.482 1957-58.......44.7"......+0.828... -1.438... -2.228... -2.522... -1.340...nine year average...-0.934 middle years................................................................................ 1951-52.......19.7"......+1.987...+0.368... -1.747... -1.859... -0.313 1965-66.......21.4"......+0.163... -3.232... -1.438... -0.911... -1.357 1969-70.......25.6".......-1.856... -2.412... -1.325... -2.084... -1.919 1976-77.......24.5".......-2.074... -3.767... -2.010...+0.344... -1.877 1982-83.......27.2"......+0.967...+1.359... -1.806... -0.567... -0.012 1986-87.......23.1"......+0.060... -1.148... -1.473... -1.746... -1.077 1987-88.......19.1".......-0.534...+0.265... -1.066... -0.197... -0.383 1990-91.......24.9"......+1.277...+0.723... -0.876... -0.527...+0.149 1992-93.......24.5"......+1.627...+3.495...+0.184...+0.764...+1.518...nine year average...-0.586 least snowy....................................................................................... 1952-53.......15.1".......-1.827... -1.036... -0.249...+1.068... -0.511 1953-54.......15.8"......+0.575... -0.148... -0.181...+0.246...+0.181 1958-59.......13.0"...... -1.687... -2.013...+2.544...+1.442...+0.072 1972-73.........2.8"......+1.238...+1.232...+0.786...+0.537...+0.948 1979-80.......12.8"......+1.295... -2.066... -0.934... -1.433... -0.787 1991-92.......12.6"......+1.613...+0.550...+1.222...+0.984...+1.067 1994-95.......11.8"......+0.894... -0.154...+1.429...+0.393...+0.641 1997-98.........5.5".......-0.071... -2.081... -0.183... -0.254... -0.647 2006-07.......12.4"......+2.282...+2.034... -1.307...+1.182...+1.048...nine year average...+0.212 as expected the snowier the winter the lower the AO index on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 analogs PDO index... season......Dec...Jan...Feb...Ave... 1951-52...-1.68...-2.01...-0.46...-1.38 1952-53....0.04...-0.57...-0.07...-0.20 1953-54....0.07...-1.32...-1.61...-0.95 1957-58...-0.55....0.25....0.62....0.11 1958-59....0.86....0.69...-0.43....0.37 1963-64...-1.08....0.01...-0.21...-0.43 1965-66...-0.03...-0.82...-0.03...-0.26 1968-69...-1.27...-1.26...-0.95...-1.16 1969-70....1.38....0.61....0.43....0.81 1972-73...-0.33...-0.46...-0.61...-0.47 1976-77....1.22....1.65....1.11....1.48 1977-78...-0.69....0.34....1.34....0.33 1979-80...-0.42...-0.11....1.32....0.26 1982-83...-0.25....0.56....1.14....0.48 1986-87....1.77....1.88....2.10....1.92 1987-88....1.27....0.93....1.24....1.15 1990-91...-2.23...-2.02...-1.19...-1.81 1991-92....0.09....0.05....0.31....0.15 1992-93....0.53....0.05....0.19....0.26 1993-94....1.07....1.21....0.39....0.96 1994-95...-1.79...-0.49....0.46...-0.61 1997-98....0.67....0.83....1.56....1.02 2002-03....2.10....2.09....1.75....1.98 2003-04....0.33....0.43....0.48....0.44 2004-05...-0.17....0.44....0.81....0.36 2006-07....0.14....0.01....0.04....0.06 2009-10....0.08....0.83....0.44....0.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 it looks like a plus enso year isn't etched in stone...It looks like a neutral + or minus winter coming up...I'm no expert on the subject but that won't stop me lol...Here are the ONI years with a +0.2 to - 0.2 index for DJF... season ave. temp. coldest 30 days. coldest winter temp. precipitation and snowfall Dec-Mar...snowfall and biggest snowfall... 1959-60...36.2...30.3.....9...14.43"...39.2"...14.5" 1960-61...31.7...24.6....-2...13.11"...54.7"...17.7" 1961-62...33.3...30.9.....4...12.37"...18.1".....6.2" 1978-79...32.7...26.0.....0...25.11"...29.4"...12.7" 1981-82...32.6...25.2.....0...16.57"...24.6".....9.6" 1989-90...35.7...25.3.....6...12.14"...13.4".....4.7" 1992-93...35.0...31.0.....7...18.39"...24.6"...10.2" 1993-94...31.2...23.5....-2...20.24"...53.4"...12.8" 2001-02...41.5...35.4...19.....8.44".....3.5".....3.0" avweage. 34.4...28.0.....5...16.64"...29.0"...10.2" long term- average...33.4...28.0.....4...14.30"...28.4"............ two great winters...1960-61 and 1993-94... two very good winters...1959-60 and 1992-93... two good winters...1981-82 and 1978-79... one mediocre winter...1961-62... one bad winter...1989-90... one horrilbe winter...2001-02... five of the nine winters had major storms 10" or more...Seven of nine 6" or more...Three winters had above average snowfall...another three had near average snowfall...Three had below average snowfall...five of the nine winters had below average temperatures...five had a very cold 30 day period 26.0 degrees or lower...one year 2001-02's coldest 30 days averaged a mild 35.4...Chances are slightly better than 66% we will see a good winter this year for these analogs...It could be great or horrible...you decide lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 it looks like a plus enso year isn't etched in stone...It looks like a neutral + or minus winter coming up...I'm no expert on the subject but that won't stop me lol...Here are the ONI years with a +0.2 to - 0.2 index for DJF... season ave. temp. coldest 30 days. coldest winter temp. precipitation and snowfall Dec-Mar...snowfall and biggest snowfall... 1959-60...36.2...30.3.....9...14.43"...39.2"...14.5" 1960-61...31.7...24.6....-2...13.11"...54.7"...17.7" 1961-62...33.3...30.9.....4...12.37"...18.1".....6.2" 1978-79...32.7...26.0.....0...25.11"...29.4"...12.7" 1981-82...32.6...25.2.....0...16.57"...24.6".....9.6" 1989-90...35.7...25.3.....6...12.14"...13.4".....4.7" 1992-93...35.0...31.0.....7...18.39"...24.6"...10.2" 1993-94...31.2...23.5....-2...20.24"...53.4"...12.8" 2001-02...41.5...35.4...19.....8.44".....3.5".....3.0" long term- average...33.4...28.0.....4...14.30"...28.4"............ two great winters...1960-61 and 1993-94... two very good winters...1959-60 and 1992-93... two good winters...1981-82 and 1978-79... one mediocre winter...1961-62... one bad winter...1989-90... one horrilbe winter...2001-02... five of the nine winters had major storms 10" or more...Seven of nine 6" or more...Three winters had above average snowfall...another three had near average snowfall...Three had below average snowfall...five of the nine winters had below average temperatures...five had a very cold 30 day period 26.0 degrees or lower...one year 2001-02's coldest 30 days averaged a mild 35.4...Chances are slightly better than 66% we will see a good winter this year for these analogs...It could be great or horrible...you decide lol... Which winters on that list followed a La Nina the winter before? Also which on the list followed a two year La Nina like this one would? I know 2001-02 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 Which winters on that list followed a La Nina the winter before? Also which on the list followed a two year La Nina like this one would? I know 2001-02 did. 2001-02 followed three la nina years...it was a weak negative... 1959-60....-0.1 DJF 1960-61.....0.0 1961-62....-0.2 1978-79....-0.1 1981-82....-0.1 1989-90.....0.1 1992-93.....0.2 1993-94.....0.1 2001-02....-0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 2001-02 followed three la nina years...it was a weak negative... 1959-60....-0.1 DJF 1960-61.....0.0 1961-62....-0.2 1978-79....-0.1 1981-82....-0.1 1989-90.....0.1 1992-93.....0.2 1993-94.....0.1 2001-02....-0.2 So wow it looks like every one of the years you listed followed either one or multiple prior La Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 So wow it looks like every one of the years you listed followed either one or multiple prior La Nina winters. This year follows two La Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 neutral MEI years with a Jan/Feb index between -0.400 and +0.400... 1952-53..+0.380 1953-54...-0.019 1956-57...-0.352+ 1959-60...-0.261* 1960-61...-0.266* 1964-65...-0.323+ 1976-77..+0.254+ 1978-79..+0.363* 1980-81...-0.164 1981-82...-0.148+ 1985-86...-0.195 1990-91..+0.309+ 1993-94..+0.192* 2001-02...-0.208 2003-04..+0.329* *Five winters with above average snowfall... +five winters with near average snowfall... five winters with below average snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 *Five winters with above average snowfall... +five winters with near average snowfall... five winters with below average snowfall... Maybe NAO and AO are more important than ENSO after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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