El Nino Winters: 1951-52 Vs 2002-03

[Chicago WX]

Only because I've seen the El Nino winters of 1951-52 and 2002-03 mentioned on this forum in recent times, and I'm bored, I thought it'd be interesting to compare the two very different winters. 1951-52 while being warm overall for much of the Midwest, was very snowy for essentially the northern half. In contrast, the winter of 2002-03 was cold and snowy for the southern/eastern 2/3, normal to warm and less snowy for the northern/northwestern parts. Various indices first.

DJF ONI

1951-52: 0.6

2002-03: 1.1

DJF NAO

1951-52: 1.5

2002-03: -0.2

DJF AO

1951-52: 0.20

2002-03: -0.65

DJF PDO

1951-52: -1.38

2002-03: 1.98

DJF temperature and precipitation departures for 1951-52 and 2002-03 (1895-2000 normals)

Season snowfall totals for 1951-52.....2002-03 (difference from 1951-52 to 2002-03).

Milwaukee took the biggest hit from 1951-52 to 2002-03, Indianapolis the biggest gainer.

Chicago IL: 66.4".....28.6" (-37.8")

Moline IL: 45.9".....18.7" (-27.2")

Peoria IL: 32.3".....19.2" (-13.1")

Rockford IL: 62.1".....18.3" (-43.8")

Springfield IL: 26.5".....25.1" (-1.4")

Evansville IN: 10.1".....21.0" (+9.9")

Fort Wayne IN: 33.0".....46.7" (+13.7")

Indianapolis IN: 15.7".....50.0" (+34.3")

South Bend IN: 78.8".....60.1" (-18.7")

Des Moines IA: 32.8".....32.6" (-0.2")

Dubuque IA: 59.3".....23.4" (-35.9")

Sioux City IA: 41.3".....31.4" (-9.9")

Lexington KY: 10.4".....19.9" (+9.5")

Louisville KY: 9.2".....16.3" (+7.1")

Detroit MI: 58.6".....60.9" (+2.3")

Flint MI: 75.3".....49.3" (-26.0")

Grand Rapids MI: 132.0".....88.0" (-44.0")

Lansing MI: 88.8".....43.1" (-45.7")

Muskegon MI: 100.6".....56.5" (-44.1")

Duluth MN: 72.2".....56.3" (-15.9")

Minneapolis MN: 79.0".....35.0" (-44.0")

Columbia MO: 27.0".....18.2" (-8.8")

Kansas City MO: 21.2".....9.4" (-11.8")

St. Louis MO: 18.4".....29.8" (+11.4")

Springfield MO: 23.1".....38.6" (+15.5")

Akron/Canton OH: 53.9".....55.9" (+2.0")

Cincinnati OH: 17.1".....33.4" (+16.3")

Cleveland OH: 75.6".....95.7" (+20.1")

Columbus OH: 23.7".....50.6" (+26.9")

Dayton OH: 24.6".....43.7" (+19.1")

Toledo OH: 51.8".....56.4" (+4.6")

Toronto ON: 70.0".....64.0" (-6.0")

Green Bay WI: 52.4".....38.9" (-13.5")

La Crosse WI: 67.5".....31.1" (-36.4")

Madison WI: 57.2".....28.8" (-28.4")

Milwaukee WI: 90.8".....34.7" (-56.1")

ENSO and AO data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

NAO data: http://www.cgd.ucar....rell/index.html

PDO data: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

Snowfall data: http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/

[Geos]

Great research as always! 2002-2003 was quite dry around here, but it had some impressive cold shots. Kind of resembled the frozen tundra around here for parts of the winter!

[Chicago WX]

Great research as always! 2002-2003 was quite dry around here, but it had some impressive cold shots. Kind of resembled the frozen tundra around here for parts of the winter!

2002-03 was dry indeed for NE IL. I added the DJF precipitation departure maps in the first post.

And thanks.

[wisconsinwx]

Only because I've seen the El Nino winters of 1951-52 and 2002-03 mentioned on this forum in recent times, and I'm bored, I thought it'd be interesting to compare the two very different winters. 1951-52 while being warm overall for much of the Midwest, was very snowy for essentially the northern half. In contrast, the winter of 2002-03 was cold and snowy for the southern/eastern 2/3, normal to warm and less snowy for the northern/northwestern parts. Various indices first.

DJF ONI

1951-52: 0.6

2002-03: 1.1

DJF NAO

1951-52: 1.5

2002-03: -0.2

DJF AO

1951-52: 0.20

2002-03: -0.65

DJF PDO

1951-52: -1.38

2002-03: 1.98

DJF temperature and precipitation departures for 1951-52 and 2002-03 (1895-2000 normals)

Season snowfall totals for 1951-52.....2002-03 (difference from 1951-52 to 2002-03).

Milwaukee took the biggest hit from 1951-52 to 2002-03, Indianapolis the biggest gainer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

NAO data: http://www.cgd.ucar....rell/index.html

PDO data: http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest

Snowfall data: http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/

Great research, and kind of amazing Milwaukee could do so well with warmer than average temps CWA wide and average precip over the winter months. That should make many in the region feel better that you don't have to have a perfect scenario to still get a lot of snow relative to average. 2002-03 was bad, on the other hand, in the W Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, and it was backloaded to boot, much like last winter, although at least it had normal winter temps.

[michsnowfreak]

Great work as always! I would take either winter.

An interesting note about 2002-03. That was the year when ASOS was getting really big, and they made the nws use only asos numbers for precip totals. The problem is asos was VERY poor in picking up the correct liquid in snowfall back then, and to boot, that was a winter with a lot of dry snow. In the years since, not only has ASOS greatly improved on liquid equivalent in snowfall, NWS also is allowed to manually change the liquid by use of their SRG if they feel the ASOS is too low. With these things not allowed, 2002-03 looks glaringly drier than it was.

Official DTW numbers have the DJF precip at a scant 2.24", which "officially" makes it the driest winter on record (broke the 1962-63 record of 2.36"). Yet in DJF alone DTW saw 46.1" of snow. So 46.1" of snow on 2.24" of liquid. I checked, and Dec had 0.79" rain, Jan 0 rain, and Feb 0.24" rain. SO...46.1" of snow on 1.21" liquid...Oooookay then.

To compare, IMBY using the proper SRG, DJF saw 51.0" snow and 4.76" of precip (note for comparison sake, Detroits 20th driest winter is 4.75"). Dec saw 1.21" rain, Jan saw 0 rain, Feb saw 0.21" rain....SO...51.0" snow on 3.34" liquid. So no doubt, it was a winter with little rain (basically 1 rainstorm in Dec and 1 rainfall in Feb) and quite a bit of dry, fluffy snow, but still...ASOS dramatically corrupted the liquid data. (For comparison, in the bitter cold, dry 1962-63, DJF saw 2.36" precip on 26.3" snow).

It certainly showed up in the many penny, nickel, and dime snows that winter, but it looks absolutely ridiculous in many of the more notable snowfalls:

Dec 2: DTW: 5.8" snow, 0.11" liquid --- (MBY: 4.6" snow, 0.31" liquid)

Dec 24/25: DTW: 6.5" snow, 0.16" liquid --- (MBY: 6.8" snow, 0.45" liquid)

Jan 2/3: DTW: 5.8" snow, 0.12" liquid --- (MBY: 5.3" snow, 0.34" liquid)

Feb 17/18: DTW: 3.8" snow, 0.12" liquid --- (MBY: 4.7" snow, 0.36" liquid)

Feb 22/23: DTW: 7.3" snow, 0.14" liquid --- (MBY: 11.5" snow, 0.86" liquid)

Feb 24: DTW: 2.5" snow, 0.01" liquid --- (MBY: 2.6" snow, 0.09" liquid)

Mar 4: DTW: 4.1" snow, 0.04" liquid --- (MBY: 3.1" snow, 0.19" liquid)

Apr 7: DTW: 4.9" snow, 0.22" liquid --- (MBY: 5.0" snow, 0.53" liquid)

Its nice that the NWS saw how glaringly bad this was and rules have since been changed to allowing SRG use in addition to improving ASOS, but its a shame those liquid numbers have to stand.

[Chicago WX]

Great work as always! I would take either winter.

An interesting note about 2002-03. That was the year when ASOS was getting really big, and they made the nws use only asos numbers for precip totals. The problem is asos was VERY poor in picking up the correct liquid in snowfall back then, and to boot, that was a winter with a lot of dry snow. In the years since, not only has ASOS greatly improved on liquid equivalent in snowfall, NWS also is allowed to manually change the liquid by use of their SRG if they feel the ASOS is too low. With these things not allowed, 2002-03 looks glaringly drier than it was.

Official DTW numbers have the DJF precip at a scant 2.24", which "officially" makes it the driest winter on record (broke the 1962-63 record of 2.36"). Yet in DJF alone DTW saw 46.1" of snow. So 46.1" of snow on 2.24" of liquid. I checked, and Dec had 0.79" rain, Jan 0 rain, and Feb 0.24" rain. SO...46.1" of snow on 1.21" liquid...Oooookay then.

To compare, IMBY using the proper SRG, DJF saw 51.0" snow and 4.76" of precip (note for comparison sake, Detroits 20th driest winter is 4.75"). Dec saw 1.21" rain, Jan saw 0 rain, Feb saw 0.21" rain....SO...51.0" snow on 3.34" liquid. So no doubt, it was a winter with little rain (basically 1 rainstorm in Dec and 1 rainfall in Feb) and quite a bit of dry, fluffy snow, but still...ASOS dramatically corrupted the liquid data. (For comparison, in the bitter cold, dry 1962-63, DJF saw 2.36" precip on 26.3" snow).

It certainly showed up in the many penny, nickel, and dime snows that winter, but it looks absolutely ridiculous in many of the more notable snowfalls:

Dec 2: DTW: 5.8" snow, 0.11" liquid --- (MBY: 4.6" snow, 0.31" liquid)

Dec 24/25: DTW: 6.5" snow, 0.16" liquid --- (MBY: 6.8" snow, 0.45" liquid)

Jan 2/3: DTW: 5.8" snow, 0.12" liquid --- (MBY: 5.3" snow, 0.34" liquid)

Feb 17/18: DTW: 3.8" snow, 0.12" liquid --- (MBY: 4.7" snow, 0.36" liquid)

Feb 22/23: DTW: 7.3" snow, 0.14" liquid --- (MBY: 11.5" snow, 0.86" liquid)

Feb 24: DTW: 2.5" snow, 0.01" liquid --- (MBY: 2.6" snow, 0.09" liquid)

Mar 4: DTW: 4.1" snow, 0.04" liquid --- (MBY: 3.1" snow, 0.19" liquid)

Apr 7: DTW: 4.9" snow, 0.22" liquid --- (MBY: 5.0" snow, 0.53" liquid)

Its nice that the NWS saw how glaringly bad this was and rules have since been changed to allowing SRG use in addition to improving ASOS, but its a shame those liquid numbers have to stand.

It is a shame those liquid amounts are so screwy. Hurts the longterm record IMO.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, looks like everything checks out with snow/liquid ratios.

December 2002: 3.02"/10.6"

January 2003: 1.27"/14.6"

February 2003: 3.45"/21.7"

The 50.0" recorded that season at IND is good for the 4th snowiest on record. Though I guess you could say it could've been higher, as there were a couple February events that were a mixed bag.

Feb 14: 35º/22º, 0.42", 0.1"

Feb 15: 33º/18º, 0.46", 2.1"

Feb 22: 36º/28º, 1.31", 6.3"

[michsnowfreak]

It is a shame those liquid amounts are so screwy. Hurts the longterm record IMO.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, looks like everything checks out with snow/liquid ratios.

December 2002: 3.02"/10.6"

January 2003: 1.27"/14.6"

February 2003: 3.45"/21.7"

The 50.0" recorded that season at IND is good for the 4th snowiest on record. Though I guess you could say it could've been higher, as there were a couple February events that were a mixed bag.

Feb 14: 35º/22º, 0.42", 0.1"

Feb 15: 33º/18º, 0.46", 2.1"

Feb 22: 36º/28º, 1.31", 6.3"

I believe IND data is taken right at the NWS office in Indianapolis, whereas most other NWS offices are in a more outlying area with the main city for their forecast area being an Airport/ASOS/paid observers. Perhaps that made a difference in that the nws employees used the SRG whereas other airports did not. When you look up the LCD on ncdc, you can see the hourly precip and that what the ASOS reported was frequently overrode with a higher total. (Again, DTW and most other places do this now, I wonder why they didnt do it in 2002-03?)