WXeastern Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It looks to me that the development of the Aleutian ridge mid-month eventually leads to a severely negative AO. The 0z GEFS show this really nicely. At 144, we have a strong Aleutian/Kamchatka block but the EPO/AO/NAO still look to be largely positive: Agreed Zucker...its very uncanny of how the past couple of months have been a spitten image of the same months of 2009. The first real sig winter storm happened in the first week of Dec in 2009..I beleieve this winter will definately kick off about the same time if not a little earlier. I really have pretty decent confidence in this aspect to. Thanks for the post Zucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Here's the 70 mb strat temperature anomalies as of November 11th: Not looking good for a -AO in December yet, but as was mentioned recently, neither was 2010 as of 11/11: Looking at the anomalies for the rest of November 2010, the temperature changes in the key region invof Russia didn't become readily apparent until after 11/20, so it appears there's still some time. Are there any websites that have forecast stratospheric temperature anomaly plots? So far, all I've been able to find are forecasts of the actual strat air temperatures and not the anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Euro: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 The closest mid November match to NHEM snow cover to this year is 2002 with 2003 a close second. 2002: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2002&ui_day=318&ui_set=0 2003: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2003&ui_day=318&ui_set=0 2012: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=318&ui_set=0 We have had a spectacular buildup ths year. Will it yield a robust winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 This is looking much better. Let's hope this negative NAO/AO locks in...at least for December. Even so, the NH is running so warm that it will be hard to see a significantly below normal month. I would be happy with normal and snowy in this warm period that we have had lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 This is looking much better. Let's hope this negative NAO/AO locks in...at least for December. Even so, the NH is running so warm that it will be hard to see a significantly below normal month. I would be happy with normal and snowy in this warm period that we have had lately. Subnormal November appears likely in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Subnormal November appears likely in many areas. Agreed. First month in awhile w/ widespread temp neg departures for the NE corridor looks likely. I don't think we'll finish well below average, but I can see slight negatives (-1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 This is looking much better. Let's hope this negative NAO/AO locks in...at least for December. Even so, the NH is running so warm that it will be hard to see a significantly below normal month. I would be happy with normal and snowy in this warm period that we have had lately. I believe large portions of Asia has been below normal for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I thought I'd bump this up. Those of you who have followed my posts over the past 10 years on the boards and the prior 5 on irc know that I have a snow cover fetish. Last year, an interloper used this same thread title and ran with it. No disrespect intended but people should at least change the wording.This year, I decided to wait until was reasonably sure that the ice melt which in the north polar regions has been unprecedented this year was over. There has been a pretty robust increase in ice today so now we begin. This picture will auto update I think so progress will be apparent in the first post of the thread. If you're like me and put alot of credence to autumnal snow cover, you'll follow this closely. Dr. Judah Cohen of MIT has done some great work correlating Siberian snow cover in October with stronger winter seasonal snows in the eastern US. Here's hoping it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Snow cover over Europe looks way above climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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