Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 northern hem. snow cover pretty impressive start 35N to 55N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Alberta WAY ahead of last year at this time. There is more snow in Northern Alberta and Yukon than mid November at this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Siberia isn't doing bad itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We slowed down the last few days, but there was a nice rebound today as snow cover started to extend westward. If the GFS is right, we should expand to 6.5 to 7.0 million km^2 by the end of the month. Several storms are progged in western Eurasia. We will probably fall just a little short of the 2009 trend line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We slowed down the last few days, but there was a nice rebound today as snow cover started to extend westward. If the GFS is right, we should expand to 6.5 to 7.0 million km^2 by the end of the month. Several storms are progged in western Eurasia. We will probably fall just a little short of the 2009 trend line. Appreciate all of the updates. That's a sweet graph you've come up with to quantify the Cohen SAI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looking good. Snow is focused mostly in western Canada and eastern Siberia...the other sides of the pole from us. That's a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Snow is focused mostly in western Canada and eastern Siberia...the other sides of the pole from us. That's a bad sign. link to the study showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Snow is focused mostly in western Canada and eastern Siberia...the other sides of the pole from us. That's a bad sign. Eurasia is actually where we want it the most. Siberia is doing well overall, but western Eurasia was lagging a tad until some big gains today....looks to really continue for the next several days too. That is a good sign. Here is the latest of a few papers on this: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf the original one by Cohen: http://web.mit.edu/~jlcohen/www/papers/Cohen_SaitoGRL03.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Looking good. That's old.... 5 days old. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Snow is focused mostly in western Canada and eastern Siberia...the other sides of the pole from us. That's a bad sign. He posted an old image... Much more in Canada now. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 That's old.... 5 days old. Jon The GIF contains three images: 23 Oct 2011, 18 Oct 2012, and 23 Oct 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The GIF contains three images: 23 Oct 2011, 18 Oct 2012, and 23 Oct 2012. Ah, it didn't animate on my phone. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Closing in on the end of the month... looking good with expansion to the west likely during the next few days. Having our trend line parallel to 2009-10 is quite significant. The fastest rate on record was October '76. Second is '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Closing in on the end of the month... looking good with expansion to the west likely during the next few days. Having our trend line parallel to 2009-10 is quite significant. The fastest rate on record was October '76. Second is '09. Appreciate the updates. Are the years ranked in a paper or online somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Appreciate the updates. Are the years ranked in a paper or online somewhere? Judah Cohen's 2011 paper: A new index for more accurate winter predictions He has nice graphs back to the mid-70s. 1976 and 2009 stand out like sore thumbs. Now, barring a complete 'meltdown', it appears that 2012 will join them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There was a huge jump in snowcover today due to a storm in Europe. Europe will remain stormy the next 48 hours. There's only 4 more days to record, and I would put 50-50 odds that we'll match or exceed 2009. This is a really strong signal for a negative AO this winter. SAI and AO have a 0.86 correlation according to Cohen's paper. Another important aspect of this year's advance is that we had overall higher daily extents than in 2009. (The y-intercept is higher.) I presume that this will strengthen the signal of the SAI due to the enhanced albedo effect. Given this SAI signal, the persistently negative AO/NAO this fall, and the warm/cold/warm tripole in the Atlantic, blocking and cold air intrustions should be frequent this winter. With a weak El Nino signal out of the Pacific, the blocking is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There was a huge jump in snowcover today due to a storm in Europe. Europe will remain stormy the next 48 hours. There's only 4 more days to record, and I would put 50-50 odds that we'll match or exceed 2009. This is a really strong signal for a negative AO this winter. SAI and AO have a 0.86 correlation according to Cohen's paper. Another important aspect of this year's advance is that we had overall higher daily extents than in 2009. (The y-intercept is higher.) I presume that this will strengthen the signal of the SAI due to the enhanced albedo effect. Given this SAI signal, the persistently negative AO/NAO this fall, and the warm/cold/warm tripole in the Atlantic, blocking and cold air intrustions should be frequent this winter. With a weak El Nino signal out of the Pacific, the blocking is critical. excellent increase today, just a thing of beauty and I note that in the great years like 02' and 09', there was a big buildup in western Russia into Europe, just like what is going on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 BIG positive anomalies to round out the month. Much of central and western Canada are covered. Probably 2/3rds-3/4s of Russia and an impressive swath through central Europe. Not to mention West Virginia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Looking forward to cfbaggett's updates. We're obviously rivaling snowcover from October '09, so it'll be interesting to see if the blocking rivals it, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Blocking is more than snowcover ex in 2009 it was the sun min. Now we are in the sun max. But a much weaker solar max than other cycles the past 100+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Blocking is more than snowcover ex in 2009 it was the sun min. Now we are in the sun max. We'll test that theory this winter. I think we'll see a very negative AO. Solar max/min is overhyped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 We'll test that theory this winter. I think we'll see a very negative AO. Solar max/min is overhyped. Regardless, although we're near a solar max (likely into 2013 and maybe early 2014), it is so weak that the activity is more typical of the midpoint between the max and min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 We'll test that theory this winter. I think we'll see a very negative AO. Solar max/min is overhyped. I don't know, the correlation of overall solar activity with NH blocking is pretty substantial and well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I don't know, the correlation of overall solar activity with NH blocking is pretty substantial and well documented. Irrespective of the QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Here's the final chart! We ended up just a little shy of 2009. I have a very high level of confidence now that we will see a -AO and its associated mid-latitude cold this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 I don't recall a ramp up this fast ever. We went from very low ice to quite respectable in a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I don't recall a ramp up this fast ever. We went from very low ice to quite respectable in a short time. Those are "Fighten words" on the climate change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Uh, ok. You do know warmer air causes more snowfall and thin ice? Some "fightin" words. II have a question for you and the forum in general. If warmer air causes more snowfall and more snowfall generally results in colder temp.'s due to a higher albedo, might the Earth have a self-limiting mechanism to prevent runaway global warming at least for awhile? Food for thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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