WilkesboroDude Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL ARC OF N/S-ORIENTED CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING IN NERN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...WITH SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN A CLUSTER ACROSS CNTRL GA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH 0-1 KM VALUES APPROACHING 35 KT PER AREA VWP DATA. STILL...AMIDST A MEAGERLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE LARGELY AOB 500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 00Z GSO RAOB AND ONLY MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. BUT A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK DOES EXIST GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF LIGHTNING/ROTATION TRENDS INCREASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty good rain cell (currently no rotation noted on radar although the whole thing looks to be slowly rotating by animation) heading towards the Midlands of SC. So strange to see at this time of the morning but I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The threat looks minimal for much of the southeast today, with my main concern being damaging winds in the squall line that tries to develop. The low lvl jet will be screaming and some of those winds should mix down to the surface... There's going to be a few rotating storms, but I'd like to see a bit more instability to get a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 It sure has that stormy feel outside this morning. Have to pay attention for sure today to see if any severe storms fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC TO MD/EASTERN WV/SOUTHERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 181249Z - 181445Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF NC INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL VA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/EASTERN WV/SOUTHERN PA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE OR MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. DISCUSSION...AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A STEADILY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA...WITH AMPLE EARLY DAY PRESSURE FALLS OF 1+ IN/HR NOTED FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD INTO WESTERN PA/NY. EAST-NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW...A NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE INTO GA/AL. EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA VICINITY. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARM CONVEYOR-DRIVEN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS...GRADUAL /ALBEIT RELATIVELY MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL VA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES AND GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC ARE ALREADY INDICATIVE OF 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH VIRTUALLY NIL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ALONG WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED/RICH LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. POCKETS OF STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND A STRONG WIND/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE INCREASE/MATURATION OF STRONG/SUSTAINED TSTMS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES BECOMING A CONCERN. ..GUYER/HART.. 09/18/2012 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK... CAE...GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Just read Allan Huffman's latest blog post. He said "that our atmosphere is probably most primed for severe weather over the next few hours with the highest cape, greatest shear and helicity, but we will be lacking a bit in instability. This afternoon, we will be a little more unstable but the dynamics wont be quite as great." http://www.examiner.com/article/severe-weather-possible-today-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 And there it is BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 TORNADO WATCH 641 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC001-037-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-105-125-127-135- 145-153-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-182100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0641.120918T1345Z-120918T2100Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CHATHAM CUMBERLAND DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE MOORE NASH ORANGE PERSON RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Severe t-storm warning for northern Chatham, southeast Alamance and much of Orange county until 10:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Let's not have any snowstorm2011 posts in here. True....didn't mean to sound whiny , but being in Vancouver, it's tough for you to imagine what it's like down here with hardly any precip going on a year and a half now, especially coupled with all the SPC risk areas we've had. Please send some precip down here this fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...CNTRL/ERN VA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...CNTRL/ERN MD...MUCH OF DE...ERN PA...WRN/NRN NJ...PARTS OF ERN NY CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 181519Z - 181645Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY. DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK AREA...AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES...LINE BREAKS...AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION. ..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 I was just going to say all that I have had here at work in RTP is some rain. There have been some severe storm warnings around, but nothing extreme. However, the sun is starting to come out now. I thought maybe it meant things were not going to be as bad as previously thought, but then I just saw the discussion up there. Maybe the sun will heat things up and create more instability. I thought the threat was bigger this morning around here for severe weather and tornadoes, but I guess it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1203 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 NCZ007-008-024-025-181700- DURHAM-GRANVILLE-ORANGE-PERSON- 1203 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON...ORANGE...GRANVILLE AND DURHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT... AT 1203 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SCHLEY...OR ABOUT OVER HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROUGEMONT...AND... BAHAMA...SURL...AND...MORIAH...BEREA...OAK HILL...STOVALL...KERR LAKE. HAZARDS INCLUDE... GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS... POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Man, the southeast forum seems dead. They are on page 6 in the NYC Metro forum talking about this severe weather possibility, and nothing has even happened up there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Man, the southeast forum seems dead. They are on page 6 in the NYC Metro forum talking about this severe weather possibility, and nothing has even happened up there yet. NY Metro is in the 10% tornado probability...we're in the 5% majority of the SE is in the 2%, they hardly ever see severe weather as far as tornadoes, so this is more exciting to them. We've seen threats with 2-5% probability of tornadoes in the middle of tornado season and it never comes to fruition so I'm thinking most posters and mets think this is not a big deal, which it shouldn't be when it finally plays out. We're in the middle of September....NYC has more daylight hours to get the heating too, as the system will come later...several reasons why they're hyped and we're dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Maybe so, but it's better than not having anything to talk about. NC is pretty famous for the fall severe weather season, but it usually happens later on in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 And part of NC is in the moderate risk area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 And part of NC is in the moderate risk area now. Yeah, reason was just straight line winds as we're at 45% now...tor risk is the same at 5% prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 It's still something to watch, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 641...WW 642...WW 643... DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENT MHX VAD SHOWS A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 Seems like we're just waiting for the action to really pick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 18, 2012 Author Share Posted September 18, 2012 RAH still honking the horn about this afternoon being a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Yeah I mean it's looking like the Raleigh metro area for some real action and rain for everyone else. We've had a few squalls move through in the Triad with some decent wind but nothing very exciting. I did notice it broke one of my bird feeders...maybe I should call it in? Also, my other excuse is I've been in PR way too much lately. I could use some interesting weather. edit: As soon as I post this the bottom drops out. Most intense storm of the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Pretty good stretch of sun coming for central and eastern NC, its bright blinding sun outside right now reflecting off all the water from the earlier rain. Things might get nasty after all in a few hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 pretty decent couplet north of RAH for a few frames now fading and the storm near Wake Forest starting to rotate as well, looks like the Mod risk might pay off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 We have thunder in Raleigh and very dark skies to the west. No rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That cell north of Raleigh looks good, might need a tor soon, (not the one that is warned). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Severe Tstorm warning now for the southern half of Wake Co., including Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 That cell north of Raleigh looks good, might need a tor soon, (not the one that is warned). Its trying but still not got a defined couplet, they just blanket thunderstorm warned the triangle but still nothing on the cell to the northeast near Wake Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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