Brick Tamland Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Already some weak rotation in storms near Charlotte this afternoon. http://sphotos-a.xx....830358623_n.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 At the moment, some very good mesocyclones in East Central Tennessee. Would not be shocked to see one of them produce a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Tennessee Tornado Warning: Warren, White, Van Buren, Bedford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Weak rotation continues in TN...good that it's warned for sure but I don't see this one kicking up any debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 New Tornado watch for Georgia. Details coming in soon... Edit: Also includes parts of SC, NC, and TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SHORT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE TNGT OVER PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...PIEDMONT...AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE ACCELERATING NEWD FROM LA. WHILE UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR SLOWLY-ADVANCING WARM FRONT NOW DRAPED ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF THE MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Update from Brad Panovich: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tomorrow for me. TONIGHT Showers Likely Low: 67 °F TUESDAY Severe Thunderstorms High: 76 °F TUESDAY NIGHT Severe Thunderstorms Low: 60 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Tomorrow for me. TONIGHT Showers Likely Low: 67 °F TUESDAY Severe Thunderstorms High: 76 °F TUESDAY NIGHT Severe Thunderstorms Low: 60 °F There is a 100% chance you will have severe weather. The severe weather model must have gotten a substantial upgrade for there to be such confidence in that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Look at that dry slot nosing out of Alabama! Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Look at that dry slot nosing out of Alabama! Unreal. FFC thinks it will fill in... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 808 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION CURRENTLY. HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF EAST TEXAS AIDS STORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL OVERNIGHT BUT SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT WORRISOME. GFS SHOWING 40-45KT 850 WINDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. BEST SHEAR COINCIDES WITH THE LOWEST INSTABILITY AND THE DEEPEST COOL POOL AT THE SURFACE SO CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE REMAIN SLIGHT CHANCE. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Look at that dry slot nosing out of Alabama! Unreal. I have to say, I really don't get the Tornado watch.....looks like we'll be lucky to get some showers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have to say, I really don't get the Tornado watch.....looks like we'll be lucky to get some showers tonight. I am hoping this is a situation where I discover why I am not a MET, but we have been so "unlucky" in the qpf department as of late. We have had some good showers in the mighty big town of Dacula, enough to rain ball games out, but nothing like Tennessee has gotten. They have been in the money up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Glenn Burns just tweeted: The National Weather Service is now removing counties from the tornado watch. I expect the watch do be cancelled soon. Stay tuned. There are just no storms out there and none forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 There is a 100% chance you will have severe weather. The severe weather model must have gotten a substantial upgrade for there to be such confidence in that forecast. lol That's how the NWS puts it out. Obviously to us it means 100% chance of rain but Facebook is currently full of posts about guaranteed severe weather here tomorrow. Some parents are talking about keeping their kids home from school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I have to say, I really don't get the Tornado watch.....looks like we'll be lucky to get some showers tonight. From my understanding, descrete thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight tonight in the TOR Watch area and further west in AL/MS as the ULL moves east enhancing low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Ok, get ready for winter wx season, "The convection near the gulf is robbing us upstream..." :lmao: Radar makes me want to for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 This seems to be more of a heavy rain event for some areas with the possibility of a few brief spinups. Not sure if the phase has occured yet, or soon.. but should see increase in cell development as soon as things get going with that. Issuing the tornado watch may have been a bit pre-mature, but it's always great to let the public know before they get to sleep for the night since a lot of the action will happen after bed time for a lot of people in GA/SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 lol That's how the NWS puts it out. Obviously to us it means 100% chance of rain but Facebook is currently full of posts about guaranteed severe weather here tomorrow. Some parents are talking about keeping their kids home from school. Haha! I guess it's sort of a catch 22 when it comes to that particular graphic coinciding with a 100% chance of rain/storms. I've seen it as high as 80% before but not 100%. They should probably just use T-Storms instead of Severe Storms in the graphic and then say the severe stuff in the text forecasts below. But that brings up the whole argument about playing to the lowest common denominator. Anyway, WE know what it really means and that's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Over 4 inches of rain here in Northwest Alabama today. Had some serious flash flooding in and around the Shoals area. There was a couple water rescues in Muscle Shoals and in Florence, Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 HAHA! Nothing changes in this part of the country with these lows... The dry slot is set to move through, convection near the Gulf of Mexico robbed us of our moisture and we'll be lucky to pick up 0.5" out of this! haha In all seriousness though, I was never expecting that much rain for areas south of Atlanta. It was always going to be where the warm front set up shop was going to get the most rain. I was surprised SPC issued a tornado watch for much of Georgia. None of the values, besides shear, jumped out at me and the lifting mechanism was still well to the west... Oh well, I informed my viewers/friends on facebook of what I was thinking and told them to be more weather aware tomorrow morning! Yeah... Tomorrow morning looks to be a more interesting, although that's not hard to do after the dud that was this tor watch, for us around sunrise as the second line comes through. It could spin up a tornado but the chances, locally, are much less than what I'm expecting along the Mid-Atlantic. Of course, that threat hinges on getting just a bit more sunshine and instability to get things going which did happen some today. Even then, I anticipate this to be more of a wind event, if anything, with a brief, spin-up tornado possible. Remember this storm track and what happened, because it could occur again this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Anyone with thoughts about NC's chances tomorrow AM-lunchtime? NC basically has the best chance out of the SE for a tornado to spin up, but the values I'm seeing so far aren't too convincing, although it is September so I should count my blessings. RAP looks to have more instability overall, if only it can be extrapolated past 18hrs...I'm bad at this. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Taken from the main thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Weak rotation in the Forsyth County, NC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Haha! I guess it's sort of a catch 22 when it comes to that particular graphic coinciding with a 100% chance of rain/storms. I've seen it as high as 80% before but not 100%. They should probably just use T-Storms instead of Severe Storms in the graphic and then say the severe stuff in the text forecasts below. But that brings up the whole argument about playing to the lowest common denominator. Anyway, WE know what it really means and that's good enough for me. Interestingly the text forecast is rather benign in comparison. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. High near 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 HAHA! Nothing changes in this part of the country with these lows... The dry slot is set to move through, convection near the Gulf of Mexico robbed us of our moisture and we'll be lucky to pick up 0.5" out of this! haha You got that right, unbelievable, chalk up one more sorry excuse for severe weather this year. Seems like SPC should institute wording during some of their outlooks that may read something like.......".....but given that the system is nearing the interior southeast, especially Georgia, nothing likely is to come of this." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Anybody else see those storms firing up in MS/AL? I wouldn't totally write this one off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 You got that right, unbelievable, chalk up one more sorry excuse for severe weather this year. Seems like SPC should institute wording during some of their outlooks that may read something like.......".....but given that the system is nearing the interior southeast, especially Georgia, nothing likely is to come of this." Let's not have any snowstorm2011 posts in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 The Severe threat looks like it will remain fairly low. (for tonight across GA that is) I think the best shot *overnight* will up in E GA and or upstate SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am disappointed in the SE posters...a legit threat and no disco. Tisk tisk. Where are all the NC mets now? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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